Mudavadi
best bet for State House tenancy, offers break with the past
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Updated Saturday, July 14 2012 at 20:34 GMT+3
Okwaro Oscar Plato
Once again, opinion poll ratings have shown
Prime Minister Raila Odinga leading albeit with some slight drop over all the
other presidential hopefuls, but below the 50-plus one margin, which means he
would face a run-off.
Unlike those pundits who rely on pollsters to
predict future pattern of events, I develop this hypothesis that the elections
will be a three-horse race between Raila, Musalia Mudavadi, and Uhuru Kenyatta.
But that race will eventually narrow down to
Musalia against Raila – a two-horse race that could see the latter face the
unexpected wrath of his former ODM stalwart.
This country is politically polarised because of
two tribes – the Kikuyu and Luo.
This means neither community is likely to
embrace the other easily when it comes to voting. It is also true Kenyan voters
are unlikely to vote back another person from the House of Mumbi to the
pinnacles of authority.
This analogy then leaves the electorate with ODM’s
Raila and UDF’s Musalia. While I believe pollsters would predict Raila as the
likely man to give Musalia a run for his money, I will sketch a scenario that
has Mudavadi coming out as the next president because of his perceived
neutrality.
Kalenjin and Kikuyu elite have convinced the
electorate that their tribulations are as a result of Agwambo, an emotive tag
and allegation that Raila will not manage to counter easily even if he hires
the best of propagandists not even an equivalent of the energetic chief
propagandist Joseph Goebbels (1897-1945) of Nazi Germany.
From the ICC, Mau Forest eviction of the
“defenceless” and the rebirth of Mungiki among others are all baggage burdening
down the son of Jaramogi Oginga in his search for the Kalenjin vote.
When the race eventually narrows down to the
two, the most likely scenario is that Mudavadi will inherit a large chunk of
Kikuyu and Kalenjin votes.
He could inherit the Kikuyu vote because of his
neutrality and having worked with Kibaki amicably without brushing the PNU side
of the coalition the wrong way and the Kalenjin bloc since he has kinsmen in
the Rift Valley.
This situation elevates Mudavadi to a “prince of
peace” who can unite the Kikuyu, Luo, and Kalenjin. In the event that he
chooses his running mate from the Kalenjin or from among the “Easterners” that
then portends a catastrophic effect on Raila and ODM.
Musalia’s reserved mien and uncanny sober
caution portrays him and the UDF party as boost national cohesion. Raila’s
candidacy elicits mixed reactions: Strong passions, and divided opinion, with a
serious task of political balancing.
In our tribal charged and divisive politics,
Mudavadi offers this country an opportunity to break the “Big Families”
chokehold on power.
He is perceived by electorate as an alternative
competent leadership from Western Province, which demonstrates its neutrality
by voting generously for any presidential candidate whose agenda target the
populace.
As a Luhya, he would break the perennial duel
between who from among the “Big Families” tribes would win the tenancy for the
house on the hill.
The impact on the national psyche of such a
choice would be incalculable, and may help us defang tribalism while working
towards the achievement of national healing and cohesion. This point in
history, Kenya requires a likable leader who epitomises peace and stability.
In many established democracies, heads of states
are chosen from a cadre of leaders with exemplary track records where being a
“career politician” is not deemed the best proving ground for national
leadership. Perhaps it is why westerners vote retired military personnel and
corporate CEOs instead of politicians.
Logically the argument is that managing the
Treasury is the equivalent of managing a “mini-state”. Mudavadi has proved his
worth as an economic steward of one of the “commanding heights” of the Kenyan
economy.
For our economy to pair those of the Asian
tigers such as Singapore and Malaysia – nations that were behind us in the 1970s
– Kenyans must write epitaphs of contenders who “make news” and cannot “write
news” in our history.
Though Musalia might not emerge victorious in
the first ballot, the “Natural Law of Selection” could favour him crush ODM in
the second round.
Mudavadi’s presidency promises a paradigm shift
from a polarised course to a cohesive and optimistic nation that offers equal
opportunity for all.
The writer is political analyst.
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