YES AHEAD

As the battle for votes ahead of the August 4 referendum heightens, security agents have been put on high alert countrywide.

And to underline how serious the Government is taking the issue of security, The Standard On Saturday has learnt that nearly Sh2 billion is planned for security forces across the country in the run-up would vote against the document while 15.7 per cent are undecided.

In a further setback to the ‘No’ camp led by Higher Education Minister William Ruto and church leaders, approximately 8 in 10 Kenyans (78 per cent) said last Monday’s ruling that Kadhis’ courts are unconstitutional would not affect their decision on the Proposed Constitution.

The High Court ruling was greeted with excitement by politicians and religious leaders in the ‘No’ camp, but outraged the ‘Yes’ group, which termed it an attempt to scuttle the review process.

Attorney General Amos Wako has since moved to challenge the ruling and will be urging the Court of Appeal to determine the matter before the referendum.

Another survey by Synovate Research, formerly Steadman, a month ago indicated 64 per cent of Kenyans would vote ‘Yes’ in the referendum, 17 would vote ‘No’, while 19 per cent were undecided.

Going by these findings, Kenya’s two-decade quest for a new constitution could soon be over.

A sample of 2,000 respondents — who had registered as voters and indicated they would vote in the referendum — was interviewed during the Infotrak Harris survey held between May 24 and 27 in all the provinces.

The poll reveals a close correlation between low general awareness on the contents of the draft and the intention to vote ‘No’.

General content

Thus the bedrock for the ‘No’ camp is Eastern and Rift Valley provinces, which recorded the lowest levels of awareness at 55 per cent and 77 per cent respectively.

"Those who are not conversant with the general contents of the Proposed Constitution seem more likely to vote No," the survey notes.

Infotrak Harris Managing Director Angela Ambitho said these findings ratchet the pressure on the Committee of Experts as they put emphasis on civic education.

The poll shows Kenyans who are unaware of the contents of the Proposed Constitution but intend to vote in the referendum prefer civic education to inform how they would vote.

The AG published the Proposed Constitution on May 6, heralding the 30-day civic education programme on the draft, which was however only launched earlier this week.

With barely 10 days left, the CoE is struggling to roll out the programme, hampered by the Treasury’s delay to release a balance of Sh200 million to finance their activities.

Justice Minister Mutula Kilonzo has vowed to seek extension of civic education time, which will inevitably eat into the 30-day period set aside for campaigns because the referendum date cannot be changed.

According to the Infotrak poll, two-thirds of Kenyans (66 per cent) claimed to be aware of the general contents of the Proposed Constitution — a rapid improvement from the grim scenario recorded two months ago. Then, the Synovate survey reported 67 per cent of Kenyans were not aware of the contents of the Proposed Constitution.

At 79 per cent, Nyanza has recorded the highest awareness levels according to the latest poll, followed by Western (78) and North Eastern (77).

More enlightened

The survey notes the more enlightened on the Proposed Constitution people are the higher its chances of approval at the referendum.

Thus the Proposed Constitution has the strongest support in North Eastern at 86 per cent, followed by Nyanza (81) and Western (73).

It is least popular in Eastern and Rift Valley, where only 41 and 59 per cent of respondents declared they would vote ‘Yes’.

Urban residents are more knowledgeable than those in rural areas but, interestingly, Nairobi’s 70 per cent awareness level was lower than in Nyanza, North Eastern and Western.

Majority of Kenyans (61 per cent) cited the need to conclude the 20-year search for a new constitution as the top reason for backing the draft, 59 per cent the desire for reforms and 34 per cent the need to exercise their democratic right.

An overwhelming majority (91 per cent) were elated with decentralising of resources and devolution of power while 63 per cent believe the Proposed constitution addresses thorny land issues.

Discontent with the conditional abortion clause (65 per cent), Kadhis’ courts (46) and unfair representation (41) topped the issues of concern by the respondents.

The Church has vowed to mobilise its flock to reject the new law since their calls to have the provisions on Kadhis’ courts and abortion amended were disregarded.