RAILAPHOBIAS

Concerns that Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s star is rising ahead of the 2012 elections and the distribution of counties are the two biggest threats to the Yes campaign ahead of the August 4 constitutional referendum.

Politicians allied to the Party of National Unity (PNU) are increasingly wary of Mr Odinga’s large presence in the Yes camp and feel that victory for the Green side, which backs the proposed constitution, will give him mileage in the 2012 presidential contest.

The politicians — a good number of whom are President Kibaki’s loyalists — have been quietly lobbying for the draft’s rejection in their backyards as a protest against Mr Odinga.

Consequently, support for the proposed constitution is fast turning lukewarm in some areas traditionally resentful of Mr Odinga such as Central Province, Ukambani and Rift Valley.

Some leaders who were initially vocal in the Yes crusade have adopted a cautious tone while others have gone quiet.

The influential clique comprising former and sitting MPs has been holding secret meetings in Nairobi and at a club in Limuru to plot to shoot down the proposed constitution as a way of cutting Mr Odinga’s national influence.

Those privy to the secret meetings say the leaders have yet to agree on a concrete strategy because they don’t want to appear to be contradicting the President’s position on the constitution review.

But they are said to have resolved that PNU-allied politicians should “minimise” attendance of rallies involving Mr Odinga. Last week’s Embakasi rally attended by President Kibaki and the PM was a test case.

Central Imenti MP Gitobu Imanyara says PNU politicians opposed to the Premier “were caught flat-footed” when Mr Odinga supported the proposed constitution.

He says that MPs allied to Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Higher Education minister William Ruto expected Mr Odinga to oppose the proposed law after the Parliamentary Select Committee on the Constitution settled on the presidential system as opposed to the parliamentary one desired by the PM.

Contrary to their expectations, Mr Odinga embraced the document and immediately hit the road campaigning for it. “Now they find it difficult to accept that he is their leader in the Yes campaign.

‘‘They are completely lost because they were caught off-guard and don’t have a strategy to deal with their predicament,” the MP said. “They have no strategy, fear to be led and they don’t want to hear of a Raila presidency.”

He added: “We know they are meeting clandestinely because they don’t want to be seen to publicly defy President Kibaki.”

PNU Cabinet ministers gave the Embakasi meeting a wide berth with Energy minister Kiraitu Murungi, a co-convenor of the Green campaign, being the only one who sent an apology through his colleague at the Yes secretariat, Prof Anyang’ Nyong’o. Mr Murungi was out of the country.

ODM ministers James Orengo, Henry Kosgey, Fred Gumo and Paul Otuoma attended. ODM-Kenya’s Johnstone Muthama, Prof Philip Kaloki and assistant minister Abu Chiaba of Kanu as well as local MP Ferdinand Waititu were the only PNU-allied legislators at the rally.

While Mr Muthama was speaking for the party in Embakasi, ODM-K chairman Samuel Poghisio, the Information minister, was preaching against the document in Kitui together with Mr Ruto.

Mr Odinga’s brand of politics evokes resentment and admiration in equal measure. Kinangop MP David Ngugi says some of his colleagues from Central province have been “blinded” by the anti-Raila sentiment, becoming an obstacle to the Green campaign.

“This Railaphobia must stop. If somebody has outrun you, you cannot live in mourning forever,” says the PNU-allied MP.

Mr Ngugi notes that “small fears” have kept some politicians especially those from Central province out of the Green brigade.

Now there are fears that a combination of votes from sections of the Church, the Rift Valley, Meru, Ukambani and the “silent” anti-Raila vote may pose a threat to the enactment of a new constitution.

“Events unfolding in the Yes team ahead of the referendum reinforce the need for new leadership that is able to stand firm and ready to be counted at a critical time like this,” said Mr Ngugi.

In a recent conversation with the Sunday Nation, Mr Murungi appeared to caution that even as the party backs the Yes campaign, PNU members must guard against “destroying their house” as they prepare themselves for the 2012 General Election.

“Even as we support the new constitution, we should realise that we are in political competition with some of our colleagues in the Yes campaign,” said Mr Murungi.

But on Thursday, the PNU secretary-general declared that the wavering leaders in the Green team would not be allowed to advance the No cause.

Political parties such as Ms Martha Karua’s Narc Kenya have kept a distance from the Yes team to avoid being “swallowed” by the Raila camp.

The majority of politicians said to be uncomfortable with Mr Odinga’s increasing visibility in the Green campaign are keen on the post-Kibaki presidency.

Reached for comment, Mr Muthama, the Deputy Government Whip, however, denied any Railaphobia in the PNU camp.

“This constitution is for Kenya and not for an individual. Nobody is scared of anyone. When we get to 2012, candidates will mount own campaigns,” Mr Muthama said.

Mr Kiema Kilonzo, the ODM-Kenya MP for Mutito, accused Mr Odinga of personalising the Yes campaign. He claimed that the PM “intends to use it to fix some people’’.

Besides the Raila factor, the number of counties to be created under the new constitutional order is said to be another critical weapon against the proposed constitution.

Some central Kenya leaders are said to be unsettled over split of the region into five counties compared with 14 in Rift Valley.

Similar concerns have been voiced in Ukambani with three counties and Meru. Mr Kilonzo questioned the rationale of setting up Kitui County with six constituencies and a population of nearly one million while Makueni county, with a population of 1.3m, had five constituencies.

“There are a lot of disparities and that is why many people in Ukambani are Red,” he said.

The MP, who has been at loggerheads with Mr Musyoka, introduced another dynamic to the debate. He said the recent heckling of the VP at Uhuru Park slighted his Ukambani constituency, which may vote No in protest against Mr Odinga.

Mr Musyoka accused the PM of organising the booing at the really which had overtones of the 2007 campaigns.

“The perception in Ukambani is that the ODM leadership has mistreated our son.”

Gachoka MP Mutava Musyimi also said there is discomfort in the Meru and Embu regions over counties.

“I hear there are people who don’t want to be in the old Meru or Embu and vice-versa,” he said.

Then there is the influence of the Church, especially the Catholic and Africa Inland Church in rural Ukambani. A host of churches are also influential in Central Kenya.

Mr Musyimi says the influence of the Church cannot be underestimated.

“The Church and Parliament were locked out of a critical process,” said the MP pointing out that the recent court ruling declaring kadhi courts unconstitutional had vindicated the concerns expressed by the clergy.

The various schemes have caused cracks in the Yes team, with the emergence of a group of youthful politicians who, agitated by what they see as a plot by the anti-reform elements in the region, have resolved to conduct village to village campaigns to sell the proposed constitution.

The MPs, who include assistant ministers Cecily Mbarire, Kabando wa Kabando, Ndiritu Muriithi and Ndaragua’s Jeremiah Kioni, point fingers at PNU leaders who project themselves as Yes but had conveniently deployed proxies to their backyards to rally against the draft.

They questioned the honesty of party leaders who grace national platforms to campaign for the document, while their loyalists were vocal in the Red campaign or uncharacteristically quiet.

“This dishonesty is irritating and they are confusing Kenyans. We need to stop double-speak and show courage of leadership,” says Mr Kioni.