How Uhuru bid is helping Raila
Everyone enlightened enough knows that the popularity of Raila Odinga and ODM in the ’07 elections was chiefly courtesy of the anti-Kikuyu sentiments being bandied around then, aka “41 against 1″.
He was seen as the most popular candidate to actually trounce President Kibaki. At the social level, defeating Kibaki was read, and preached, as defeating the Kikuyu. Voters were convinced by politicians that Kikuyu have had, and had benefited from, the presidency for so long and that the only way to stop this was to come together under ODM, and support Raila.
Voters in the larger Mt Kenya region were misled by their politicians to believe that it was either Kibaki or they would be run over by the ODM juggernaut. In fact it was the first time since the advent of multi-party politics that the Kikuyu voted, almost to a man, for a single presidential candidate irrespective of one’s sub tribal affiliations.
Previously, the sub-tribal Kikuyu divides were always visible. In ’92 and ’97 Kibaki got votes from the Kikuyu from Nyeri, while Matiba got votes from Murang’a and they divided the Kiambu votes with Kibaki having the upper hand because of the late Njenga Karume. In ’02 Kibaki got votes from Nyeri and Muranga and none from Kiambu as they were supporting Uhuru.
In fact, the late Njenga Karume who by then was Kibaki’s closest political friend ditched him to support Uhuru. This idea of “42 minus 1″ actually caused the ’07/’08 PEV and the other “causes of PEV” doing their rounds are actually lame excuses. The only way Raila Odinga and ODM can win in the upcoming is if there’s a very popular Kikuyu candidate in contention. It will be easy to resuscitate the ’07 idea of removing Kikuyu from power. This would bring most of the ODM votes which have since drifted back.
This joining together by politicians to defeat a group of other politicians isn’t all bad in itself. In fact it’s just politics 101. However, unless one is daft, it’s clear that unity against Uhuru, or any other Kikuyu for that matter, will be interpreted socially as opposition to Kikuyu as a community, with it is attendant consequences. The shortcut to prevention of PEV would have been for the people from the Kikuyu community to keep off the presidency. I know they have the Democratic right to vie, but why can’t they rise above petty rights and focus on the greater good of the whole society? To paraphrase the good book, what will it benefit Kenya, and indeed the Kikuyu community if it gains the presidency and loses the social cohesion as Kenyan community?
As long as Uhuru remains in the race and/or candidate in the upcoming elections, whatever rhetoric you hear from politicians is pure unadulterated hogwash; Kenyans will vote either for or against the Kikuyu! You can take this to the bank. In a runoff between Uhuru and Raila, Raila will whitewash Kenyatta. However, it will leave the country socially divided that we’ll be starting again from Zero like we did in ’08. But in the event Uhuru steps down from contesting, and no other Kikuyu emerges as a popular candidate, Kenyans will all start talking or evaluating qualifications, or lack thereof, of the presidential candidates.
Unlike Raila who say it will be a two horse race of reformers and non-reformers, the number might increase not only to host those who claim “reformers’ tag verses non-reformers but it will end up evaluating performers versus reformers too. What of Martha Karua, one may ask. The answer is simple: she has two strikes against her chances of being the President if Uhuru ditches his quest for State House. For starters, she is a woman. In Kenya we are still at the social level where men and women believe “leader means man”, and both men and women will largely vote for men.
Secondly, Martha Karua hails from the Kikuyu ethnic community (tribe) from Central province. This fact has never exactly, necessarily mattered during all those times she’s been in politics but it does now. Kenyatta and Kibaki, first and third Presidents of Kenya respectively, hail from the same Kikuyu ethnic community. The Kikuyu community happens to be the largest, numerically, and there has existed this feeling that the Kikuyu can monopolise the presidency to the end of the world.
The complicated marriage between the presidency and tribe in Kenya stems from the perception - right or wrong - that once a tribe has the presidency, all its members benefit at the expense of the rest of the Kenyan population. It is claimed that the Kenyatta presidency benefited the Kikuyu, the Moi regime benefited the Kalenjin and now the Kibaki regime is benefiting the Kikuyu. Again!
The post-election violence of ’07/’08 was actually a veiled opposition to Kibaki’s second presidential term. My guess is that if one was to tell a congregation that the end of the world is nigh, and then followed that with a quip that Kenyans should, therefore, not sweat the Kikuyu having the presidency, one would be run out of the church.
I digress... Martha Karua is campaigning to be the 4th occupant of “the house on the hill” as statehouse is christened by the 4th estate. Unfortunately, she is a Kikuyu, and if some Kenyans had an issue with a Kikuyu presidency in 2007, it can only be worse now. My hypothesis doesn't have good news for Uhuru and my crystal ball tells me that Uhuru can’t beat Raila for reasons outlined but only if he faces Agwambo in the second poll. By campaigning, Uhuru and his supporters are, in all practical purposes and intents, campaigning for Raila the son of Jaramogi Odinga Oginga.
Okwaro Oscar Plato is a political analyst with Quadz Consulting Africa. The views expressed are solely for the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the organisation.
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