Fears devolution has shifted tension down to counties
By TIM WANYONYI twanyonyi@ke.nationmedia.com
Posted Tuesday, July 10 2012 at 21:29
Posted Tuesday, July 10 2012 at 21:29
While the new Constitution offers much hope that there will be no violence at the next General Election, fears continue to linger.
First, because of the new Constitution, many say, focus has shifted downstream to the counties, where many big sharks are now drifting.
What this means is that competition, especially in the race for governorship, is going to be much more fierce, hence the potential for violence will increase.
This is more so in counties that have more than one ethnic group whose candidates will be competing for power and influence. And, according to an NSIS map, at least 27 of the 47 counties fall in this category.
In some of these regions, including Marsabit and Isiolo, there has already been violence as politicians flex their muscles and position themselves for the elections.
Ms Florence Sambiri-Jaoko, former chair of the Kenya National Commission on Human rights says most of this will be caused by the widespread misconception among some in the political class and citizenry that devolution is about creating tribal kingdoms.
“Devolution was meant to take services closer to the people and therefore hasten development. People should know we are still in a nation called Kenya, which is greater,” Ms Jaoko says.
Reduce the threat
Dr Kibunjia says it may be necessary for communities in such counties to negotiate pre-election power sharing deals to reduce the threat of violence.
Second, is the fear arising from organised criminal gangs. These include Mungiki, who police have cautioned are re-grouping, the secessionist Mombasa Republican Council at the Coast and Al-Shabaab.
MRC has already warned that there will be no elections in Coast and is ready to carry out its threat. An attack on an IEBC mock election in Kilifi in March served as a warning. Additionally, there are reports that the group is confiscating people’s identity cards to prevent them from voting.
Mungiki could be going for political power as well, and this could lead to violence and clashes with security agencies and civilians in areas it was once active. In other counties like Bungoma, the Sabaot Land Defence Force ghost is never far away.
And then there is the research by Kepsa Youth Alliance recently, which revealed that thousands of youth groups were organising ahead of the elections.
The study reveals a lot of positive contribution by young people in politics including running websites for parties, but there are also warning signs — there are those ready to serve as guns for hire to the highest bidder to intimidate their opponents.
Political analyst Kipchumba Murkomen said groups like MRC could be a recipe for violence, adding that its leaders should be told devolution will address their grievances.
Then there is the threat of Al-Shabaab, the Somali militant group. It is almost certain that by the time elections come, the African Union Mission in Somalia, which includes Kenyan troops, would have driven the militants out of all territory they control in Somalia.
But as they have demonstrated since October last year, the militants’ cells in Kenya have the ability to strike almost at will.
There is no guarantee, therefore, that their defeat on the battle field will stop attacks in Kenya and their potential to disrupt the elections. This threat is not just limited to the border counties of North Eastern, where election officials and material could be targeted, but elsewhere during campaigns and voting.
Third, is the perennial issue of impunity in Kenya. Many of the foot soldiers who executed the 2008 violence still walk free. This is one of the biggest potential threats to the election.
Even though the suspected big boys are facing trial at The Hague, the fact that nearly 5,000 cases of murder, arson, rape and theft reported from the post-election violence are yet to be determined represents a big danger.
A committee set up by the Director of Public Prosecutions says it has reviewed some 3,500 cases, but there is no hope that the foot soldiers who wielded the pangas and struck the matches will be brought to justice before March 4, 2013.
If they can get away with the crimes they committed in 2007, what will prevent them from doing the same in 2013? Fourth, The Hague process is a double-edged sword. It can act as a deterrent, but it can also increase tension and lead to violence.
As it has been demonstrated elsewhere, some people lash out when their leaders are indicted. In Uganda, Joseph Kony was talking peace until he was indicted and bolted back to the bush to continue with his crimes.
In DRC, Bosco Ntaganda had integrated his rebels into the national army but when he was indicted, he quit and resumed fighting. In the end, of course, there will be nowhere to run for these two, but in the interim, their crimes may intensify.
In Kenya, the ICC accused’s supporters were behaving in a similar manner with the so-called prayer rallies.
Kitale bishop
Kitale Anglican Church of Kenya bishop Stephen Kewasis says many have bought the narrative that the ICC is biased and is intervening in local politics for the benefit of certain candidates.
“People are having a feeling for their people (those charged) who they think have been victimised... this could trigger violence,” he says. It will be desirable, the bishop adds, that the cases be heard outside the electioneering and voting period.
Finally, is the question of police. In the 2007 chaos, the police force was caught totally off guard. It was obvious that the force was overwhelmed by the scale of the violence. But this was not even the biggest problem.
The reality that the police were biased, that they just looked on as Kenyans were killed, that they participated in the violence by shooting to kill and raping women was revealed in the Waki Commission report.
In the run up to the elections, there were very credible rumours that some security agents, especially among the Administration Police, had been hired as agents for a political party.
It is these shortcomings that informed the proposal for radical changes in the structure and command of the police force, including merging the APs within the regular police.
That the proposed reforms appear to have stalled after the formation of the National Police Service Commission hit a stalemate is cause for worry.
Many Kenyans are putting a lot of faith in the IEBC to deliver a free and fair election, but it cannot do this alone, warns Ms Jaoko. “Other institutions like the police should be reformed so they act independently to end the impunity on electoral offences,” she warns.
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