Peter Kenneth is Raila’s best bet for running mate

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By MAKAU MUTUA
Posted  Saturday, December 3  2011 at  20:00

One thing keeps all serious presidential contenders awake at night. That’s who to name as running mate.

My crystal ball tells me – you can take this to the local bank – that presidential hopefuls will rise or fall on whom they name as running mates.

I know – as you do – that not every declared candidate is serious. You know that two serious candidates – Finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto – are likely to be upended by the International Criminal Court.

That leaves PM Raila Odinga and VP Kalonzo Musyoka as the clear favourites for State House.

The contest between Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka will be decided by their choice of running mate.

For now, I want you to discount all the talk about the so-called G7. That’s a dud fronted by people bankrupt of ideas and scared witless by Mr Odinga.

It’s a group without a head and, therefore, no brain. It’s not that I don’t know ethnic math counts in Kenyan presidential politics. It does but when played wisely.

No sane person believes that Mr Kenyatta, Mr Ruto and Mr Musyoka will each swallow their presidential egos.

There’s a snowball’s chance in hell that the three will agree on a common candidate against Mr Odinga.Their animus towards Mr Odinga is one thing. But their unity – agreeing on one of their number – against him is quite another.

This begs a million dollar question. Must Mr Odinga – and I don’t know whether this is a slam dunk – pick a Kikuyu running mate? If so, why, and whom? But first things first.

To pick a Kikuyu running mate, Mr Odinga would have to “betray” Local Government Minister Musalia Mudavadi first.

I say “betray” not because that’s how Mr Mudavadi would see it, but how Mr Odinga’s opponents would spin it.

In fact, I am sure Mr Mudavadi may care less. Under the new Constitution, the Governor of Nairobi – which Mr Mudavadi may wisely choose to contest – is much more powerful than Deputy President.

Nairobi’s gubernatorial office will become the most powerful springboard to State House.

Running mate

That PM Odinga should pick a Kikuyu running mate has a compelling logic.

First, it would eliminate the historic Luo-Kikuyu schism that has either retarded reforms or paralysed government.

A Luo-Kikuyu peace would allow the new Constitution to take off. Second, a Luo-Kikuyu combo would assure the powerful Kikuyu elite that its interests would be safe.

Third, it has the potential to pull in the substantial Kikuyu vote for Mr Odinga.

Finally, it would heal one of the fault lines that have fuelled tribalism in Kenya.

I wish I didn’t have to make these primeval calculations, but facts are stubborn things. But accepting the logic of a Kikuyu running mate is easier than picking one. Who fits the bill?

By my count, there are four serious Kikuyu candidates from which Mr Odinga can pick a running mate. But each has flaws. Gichugu MP Martha Karua may look like an obvious choice, but her case is complicated.

If she could defy President Mwai Kibaki – for whom she fought tooth and nail – she’d have no problem wagging a finger at Mr Odinga.It’s not clear she’d want to be Mr Odinga’s subordinate. Even if she did, it’s not clear the “marriage” would last. Ms Karua is very strong-willed – she’s her own woman.

I am not sure she could persuade the Kikuyu elite to back Mr Odinga. But she’d bring a large chunk of the female and civil society votes.

This brings me to former Kabete MP and Safina Leader Paul Muite. There are those who consider Mr Muite “washed up”. I am not one of them.

The man has a brilliant strategic mind and the courage of a lion. Besides, his reformist credentials are not in dispute.

He was once the undisputed heir apparent to the late opposition doyen Jaramogi Oginga Odinga before Goldenberg architect Kamlesh Pattni made unsavoury allegations against him.

But show me a leading politician who hasn’t been touched by scandal, and I will give you my house.

The question of Mr Muite’s viability has more to do with the Kikuyu electorate, not his past. Can he leverage the Kikuyu vote for Mr Odinga?

This leaves the field for Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth. Mr Kenneth is a fresh and intriguing face on the political scene.

He’s a youthful leader who isn’t tainted too heavily by the tribe. He seems “to get” the youth.

His appeal goes beyond the Kikuyu. I would even venture to say that though he lacks the gravitas of other Kikuyu political heavyweights, he is emerging as the voice for the future.

Largest bloc

I think of the three possible picks – Ms Karua and Mr Muite being the others – Mr Kenneth may draw the largest bloc of Kikuyu vote for Mr Odinga.

Mr Odinga may sell him as the next “muthamaki-in-waiting”. This carrot may be enough to sway the Kikuyu Mr Odinga’s way.

So, for today, I am betting on Mr Kenneth as the most viable running mate for Mr Odinga.

Gachoka MP Mutava Musyimi beautifully straddles and blends the Gema-Kamba world, and would have been a serious running mate.One “non-Kikuyu Kikuyu” is Internal Security minister Prof George Saitoti. But he’s too passé and “old Kanu school” to be interesting.

In fact, he would hive off a large Kamba vote from Mr Musyoka. But he has failed to reignite his Ufungamano charisma. Mr Kenneth allows PM Odinga to “look east” and create a “national” ticket.

Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.