By MAKAU MUTUA
Posted Saturday, December 24 2011 at 18:27
Posted Saturday, December 24 2011 at 18:27
Since this is my last column of Anno Domini 2011, I thought I should end on a light, but reflective, note.
That’s why I will focus on a little phrase – “crystal ball” – and let you in on why it has become my secret lover.
In common lore, a “crystal ball” is a crutch, a crystal or glass ball that’s believed to aid clairvoyants.
I want to distance myself from this definition. I am not superstitious, nor do I believe in the power of divination by humans.
But – and this is the difference – I do believe that we can “see the future” through a “careful study of history” and an “informed reading of the present.” Hence my crystal ball.
We are unable to understand what will happen in 2012 – who, for example, is likely to be elected President of the Republic of Kenya – unless we “peer intently” into my crystal ball.
But, mind you, the crystal ball is only a literary tool that allows me to “thoughtfully scan the landscape’’.
It doesn’t give me the “right answer”. That’s because, in studying history and reading the future, you can only see what is either “possible” or “probable.”
A good student will nail probabilities, not possibilities. But no student of history – even a genius – can nail the future with “certainty”.
That’s why a crystal ball is a tool of theory, not clairvoyance. I use it to eliminate, deduce and predict.
I have seen some disparaging remarks on my crystal ball. This usually happens when a reader is miffed that I have given his or her candidate – or issue – short shrift.
Let me be clear. I am not miffed in return to those who are miffed at me. On the contrary, I welcome it.
It means that I have done my job well. Imagine if I wrote a column and you simply shrugged, or didn’t even bother to read it. I would be fired or more likely stop writing of my own volition.
I am in the business of ideas, and the worst thing that could happen is for my ideas to arouse no emotion – anger, revulsion, seduction, and inspiration.
One of my identities is that of a pundit. That’s a segment of the intelligentsia called “social critics”. In that role, my job isn’t to preach to you. It is to provoke you and get you asking questions.
In a democracy, this is a civic duty. Informed citizens make the most thoughtful decisions and choices. Ignorant citizens are easily corrupted, or dominated by kleptocrats.
Democracy functions best where citizens are perpetually vigilant and sceptical of the political class. It’s true, as Winston Churchill said, that “democracy is the worst form of government except for all the others”.
But without a free punditocracy – made possible by a free press and great universities – democracy won’t be possible, or will die a sure death.
That’s why my crystal ball “ambushes” you with what you least expected. It’s my job to reveal to you parts of your mind – or consciousness – that you hadn’t thought of.
That may understandably frustrate you at times. That’s because it may challenge your biases, or “attack” your idols.
It may even stand “your truth” on its head. When that happens, some folks accuse me of focusing on individuals – instead of ideas – or “going tribal.”
Nothing could be further from the truth. I only discuss an individual as a proxy for big ideas and national political plots.
Bull’s eye
Individuals are only interesting as players on a historical stage. It’s their ideas – or lack of them – that captivate my crystal ball.
Which begs the question: Is the crystal ball capable of narrowing down a target and coming close to a bull’s eye? Methinks so.
Let’s put this to the test by taking, for example, the 2012 presidential sweepstakes.
You’ll recall that throughout the year I have given you a bevy of possibilities and probabilities. Some were from my crystal ball.
But others were simply meant to provoke interest, and get you to “think the unthinkable”.
I asked you, for instance, to think about Mandera Central MP Abdulkadir Mohammed, former anti-corruption chief John Githongo, and Kenya Airways CEO Titus Naikuni as possible presidential candidates.
That was really neat – unpredictable, but not impossible. That’s how the Kenya of the future will be built.
But I have also walked along a more beaten path. One such path concerns two of the Ocampo Six – Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto.
Who doesn’t know that their quest for State House has been complicated – if not upended – by the International Criminal Court? It may not matter whether charges are confirmed, or not.
In my crystal ball “hypothesis,” I have opined that PM Raila Odinga and VP Kalonzo Musyoka are the most likely beneficiaries should Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto go down.
I have received the fiercest criticism because of this obvious analysis. But my crystal ball tells me to stay the course. I can only recalibrate if the ICC does the unexpected.
This is my message to those who don’t like my crystal ball. Live and let live, as we should in a democracy.
I don’t know anyone who has ever seen the back of his or her head. I know most people have seen pictures of the backs of their heads.
But those are only pictures, not the real thing.
But those are only pictures, not the real thing.
However, other people have seen the actual backs of our heads. Sometimes I’ll show what you can’t see. My point is simple – don’t mess with my crystal ball. Happy holidays!
Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.
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