By BERNARD NAMUNANE bnamunane@ke.nationmedia.com
Posted Saturday, December 24 2011 at 19:15
Posted Saturday, December 24 2011 at 19:15
The year is coming to an end with as much political anxiety as it started with.
One year ago this month, International Criminal Court Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo stirred up the country by naming key leaders, among them deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto, as bearing greatest responsibility for the 2008 post-election violence.
They were required, in four months’ time, to go to The Hague and appear before Pre-Trial Chamber judges who were to read the charges brought against them. (READ:Uhuru, Muthaura and Ali before ICC judges)
Alarm bells
Political alarm bells quickly rang, with Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto’s allies pointing an accusing finger at Prime Minister Raila Odinga, claiming he wanted them eliminated from the 2012 presidential race.
Mr Odinga hit back immediately, saying they had nothing to worry about if they played no role in perpetrating the violence.
Tinderet MP Henry Kosgey, who had stepped down from his Industrialisation docket, Head of Civil Service Francis Muthaura, Postmaster General Hussein Ali and Kass FM radio presenter Joshua arap Sang were also named as bearing greatest responsibility for the 2008 violence. (READ: Ruto, Kosgey, Sang face The Hague)
In Mr Odinga, Mr Ruto saw betrayal from a colleague in arms in the run-up to the 2007 elections.
Because of the challenges that were facing him at The Hague, he struck an understanding with Mr Kenyatta – a case of enemies becoming friends and friends turning foes.
The rift between Mr Odinga and Mr Ruto quickly became the defining cause for the country’s politics.
The Eldoret MP, Mr Kenyatta, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa came together to form what is now known as the G7 Alliance with the sole intention of preventing Mr Odinga from winning the next elections.
Joining the anti-Raila brigade were Trade minister Chirau Ali Mwakwere, Dujis MP Aden Duale and former South Mugirango MP Omingo Magara.
So determined were the new-found allies in their quest that President Kibaki took in Mr Ruto, even attending two rallies in Eldoret to unite the Kalenjin and Kikuyu.
The determination of the group sunk home in April. Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto brought the city to a stand-still when they held a prayer meeting at Uhuru Park on arriving from The Hague after their initial appearance.
At the meeting, the message was two-fold: unite to win the 2012 elections and the PM is behind their tribulations.
Not a person to be outdone, Mr Odinga embarked on his own counter-attack, berating the alliance as a coming together of tribes when Kenyans should be thinking as a nation.
At the same time, however, he courted some Kalenjin MPs and professionals to regain support in the Rift Valley.
Cabinet ministers Franklin Bett and Sally Kosgei, who had earlier appeared to warm towards Mr Ruto, and nominated MP Musa Sirma remained in the PM’s camp.
Mr Odinga also upped his efforts to kick out ODM rebel MPs from his side of the Cabinet. In August he was finally able to.
President Kibaki, sources at the time said, was reluctant to sanction the dismissal of Mr Ruto from Cabinet because of his performance as minister.
Be salvaged
Mr Ruto’s sacking destroyed any hope that his relationship with Mr Odinga could be salvaged, and the former began to popularise the United Democratic Movement (UDM) as his vehicle to State House.
Mr Ruto has moved with a majority of Kalenjin MPs and most ODM lawmakers from North Eastern Province.
The effect of the wrangles between Mr Odinga and Mr Ruto has seen ODM lose six of the 11 by-elections that have been held since the 2007 elections.
To counter the UDM effect, the PM has turned to professionals in Rift Valley and point men in Central Kenya, among them former minister Njenga Karume, former Attorney-General Charles Njonjo and businessman Peter Kuguru, to make in-roads into the regions.
Those close to the PM reveal that he could end up naming a running mate from Central Kenya to increase his chances of winning the next presidential elections.
This appears not to go down well with deputy PM Musalia Mudavadi who declared his interest in the presidency through ODM.
On the PNU Alliance side, aspirants have been working out a way of agreeing on either one candidate to face Mr Odinga or having three teams in the first round to ensure that the PM does not meet the required 50 per cent plus threshold of the total vote to be declared winner. Mr Musyoka, Mr Kenyatta and Prof Saitoti have struck a deal on these issues.
The year has also seen Gichugu MP Martha Karua intensify her campaigns in many counties to popularise her candidature on a Narc-Kenya ticket. Mr Raphael Tuju, a former Foreign Affairs minister, also announced his presidential bid.
Planning assistant minister Peter Kenneth is also in the race and has since launched his manifesto and opened a secretariat.
He is reviving the Kenya National Congress (KNC) party on whose ticket he will contest the presidency.
Yet as the year ends, it is the verdict to be delivered on January 19 by Judges Ekaterina Trendafilova, Hans-Peter Kaul and Cuno Tarfusser that will truly define the politics of 2012.
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