Why Raila, VP alliance faces fierce battle

By Oscar Obonyo

Aware of the high stakes in the Kibaki succession race, Coalition for Reforms and Democracy leaders will have to mount aggressive campaign for State House to beat the Uhuru-Ruto alliance

Even if Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka clinch the presidency in March next year as projected by the latest opinion poll, it will be after mounting the hardest battle ever in their political lives.

That the big two in Government have teamed up on realisation they could be vanquished separately by a formidable opposition of Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto speaks volumes about the latter pair’s emerging political might.

At the start of the Tenth Parliament, the PM and VP were viewed as frontrunners in the President Kibaki succession and were even engaged in premature protocol and political battles. Today, however, they face intense competition from comparatively junior politicians, one of whom is a backbencher, and have accordingly teamed up to ward off the Uhuru-Ruto onslaught. 

Part of the reason, says Prof Amukowa Anangwe, a political science lecturer at the University of Dodoma, Tanzania, lies in the cases at the International Criminal Court, which have fired up Uhuru and Ruto and created a siege mentality of “we are under attack”, among supporters.

Besides this conditioned fervent support from their backyards, the former Cabinet minister sees the quiet hand of the families of former Presidents Jomo Kenyatta and Daniel arap Moi, and incumbent Mwai Kibaki, in emboldening the Uhuru-Ruto pair. This is the case owing to the last-minute inclusion of DPM Musalia Mudavadi in the team.   

The move elicited angry reactions from MPs allied to Uhuru’s TNA. Gachoka MP Mutava Musyimi and Nominated MP Rachel Shebesh specifically accused a ‘higher office’ of trying to armtwist Uhuru into giving up his presidential bid in favour of Mudavadi. Musyimi was specific that the interference was coming from a notable ‘address’, which by all indication is State House.

Status quo

“Ideally, Raila and Kalonzo are the underdogs in this battle. They come up against the powerful forces and monumental wealth of Kenyatta, and Kibaki families, who are out to defend – at all costs – the status quo. For them, this is not about getting Uhuru or Mudavadi elected, but rather stopping Raila with his reformist ideas from State House,” claims Anangwe.

In a quick reaction, however, State House has refuted claims it played a role in helping Mudavadi negotiate his way to the TNA/United Republican Party alliance, including plots to elbow out Uhuru from the presidential race. The statement to newsrooms stressed the President was committed to overseeing a free and fair election. The alleged support of the Kenyatta-Kibaki families notwithstanding, Anangwe dismisses allied Kanu party, in particular, as thoroughly weakened and unable to influence ongoing political events. The party has declared support for Mudavadi’s bid.

Noting that Uhuru and Ruto have been “very good friends” for long, Uhuru’s spokesman Munyori Buku maintains the political union between the two was mainly persuaded by the need to unite the two populous and neighbouring communities in Rift Valley – Kalenjin and Kikuyu.

“It would be untrue to deny that ICC is a factor in their union. However, it is factor to the extent of the realisation by the two (Uhuru and Ruto) on the need to run a peaceful campaign by uniting Kenyans beginning with the communities in the Rift Valley that were the main combatants in the 2008 post-election mayhem,” says Munyori.   Apparently many in the Rift Valley are convinced that with this line of thought, including Eldoret Catholic Bishop, Benjamin Korir, who has publicly endorsed the Uhuru-Ruto political marriage, “at least for purposes of national healing”.

The late inclusion of Mudavadi into the group, argues former Cabinet minister Dr Mukhisa Kituyi, will help speed up national healing. Kituyi observes the Uhuru-Ruto is bound to neutralise historical hostilities between members of the Kikuyu and Kalenjin communities. Similarly, he observes, if Mudavadi wins the Jubilee ticket to face off with Raila, then the country would have conclusively stemmed fears another round of post-election polls: “In the same way Kibaki and Uhuru of Central Kenya faced off in 2002, this poll will be peaceful since the neighbouring Luo and Luhya of Kavirondo region, will surely not hack one another because of elections.” But Anangwe maintains political power is at play by the Uhuru-Ruto pair and the community unity move is a camouflage. He observes that the inclusion of Mudavadi, in particular, is meant to shield the duo against being viewed as a two-tribe union or their presidential bid as that of an ICC-bound pair.  

“Either way, I see a big challenge to the pair. If they settle on Mudavadi, it will confirm to everyone that he is after all a political project, and if Uhuru does not run, he would be a punctured tyre and may not hold sway on his Kikuyu community,” says Anangwe.

The situation is equally onerous for Raila-Kalonzo pair, for as Transport minister Ali Chirau Mwakwere concedes, “we have done our arithmetic and I am afraid we shall humiliate the PM and VP thoroughly”.