By KWENDO OPANGA
Posted Saturday, December 15 2012 at 19:00
Posted Saturday, December 15 2012 at 19:00
IN SUMMARY
- Uhuru, Mudavadi and Ruto must decide who among them will be least affected by the propaganda war
- Fatally wounded: A bitterly fought nomination could leave the coalition fatally wounded as it readies itself for the main contest with Cord
On Jamhuri Day, Mrs Charity Ngilu was still fighting to join Deputy Prime Ministers Uhuru Kenyatta and Musalia Mudavadi on the ballot for Tuesday’s Jubilee Alliance nominations for the coalition’s presidential flagbearer.
Draping herself in the colours of political cleanliness and integrity, sobriety and legitimacy, she said the coalition needs her more than she needs it. Indeed, in taunt and boast, she said the Jubilee Alliance cannot survive for long without her.
On Thursday morning as I filed this article, it was still the case that the ticket for the Jubilee Alliance’s presidential ticket would be settled through a contest between Mr Kenyatta of The National Alliance (TNA) and Mr Mudavadi of the United Democratic Forum (UDF).
It was also still the case that the nomination would be decided by some 3,000 delegates from TNA and UDF. It is here that things begin to get interesting.
The formula provides that each party will have 564 candidates selected from each of the country’s 47 counties. That should account for about 20 per cent of the delegates, with the remaining 80 per cent being decided from the membership strength of the parties.
At the last count, TNA proffers, its membership stood at 650,000 to UDF’s 320,000.
Now, this means TNA-leaning delegates would outnumber their UDF counterparts at the nomination. But it is argued that the idea here is that each candidate should be able to lobby the candidates to vote for him or her. In other words, on paper, the 3,000 delegates will be up for grabs.
Few are buying that. It is why there is a strong voice in the coalition which is urging that the presidential ticket be decided through consultations and consensus rather than risk a potentially divisive all-out war for delegates between the protagonists.
This school of thought proffers that the coalition should marshal forces to fight the enemy and not itself. This is to say a bitterly fought nomination may leave the coalition fatally wounded as it readies itself for the main contest with the Coalition for Reform and Democracy (Cord).
But even consensus-building can be controversial and contentious. The Jubilee Alliance’s will not be different. To begin with some 40 Kenyatta-supporting MPs have made it clear that if their man is not on the ballot, they will leave the coalition.
What this means is that the Jubilee Alliance’s Big Three —Mr Kenyatta, Mr Mudavadi and Mr William Ruto — and a small circle of advisers, not the garrulous gaggle of MPs, must negotiate a consensus. This also means that the two will be the ones to counsel their supporters to accept and support the final deal.
It will not be easy. Ultimately, Mr Kenyatta and Mr Mudavadi will have to discuss the chances of each of them beating the Prime Minister Raila Odinga/Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka — or Cord — ticket on March 4.
They will be advised to discuss and weigh their individual strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats.
One, regarding threats, Mr Kenyatta will be the first person to acknowledge the fact that the case against him at the International Criminal Court (ICC) weighs heavily on his mind and is a millstone on his shoulders. Will he accept that this burden may be transferred to the Jubilee Alliance ticket?
Second, what did the Prime Minister mean when he said last week that a Cord government would go after stolen wealth? There is no doubt that was a shot across Jubilee’s bow ahead of the propaganda war. But who did he have in mind?
He is targeting the Jubilee’s Big Three. Therefore, as they negotiate, Mr Kenyatta, Mr Mudavadi and Mr Ruto must decide who among them will be least affected by the propaganda or how they will best deal with it, including who is best placed to lead the onslaught.
Third, it will be tricky, but the Big Three must decide who among them will command a national appeal and keep both friend and foe in the alliance. The 40 MPs would rather stay in Jubilee than troop to Cord if their man loses out, but have to be assured the top of the ticket would take care of their interests.
If this contest is decided through balloting by delegates, Mr Kenyatta may run away with the vote. If it is decided through consensus and consultations, Mr Mudavadi has his nose ahead.
I doubt Mrs Ngilu will be in this race. Politically, she can get on board the Jubilee train; legally she is time-barred from the nomination.
Kwendo Opanga is a media consultant opanga@diplomateastafrica.com
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