PRIME Minister Raila Odinga's CORD alliance may well win on the first round of the presidential election on March 4. The latest opinion poll by Strategic Research shows that CORD would take 49.7 percent of all votes if elections were held today.
Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Ford Kenya leader Moses Wetangula are Raila's key partners in CORD. Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta's Jubilee alliance would get 43 per cent of the vote on the first round.
At the time of the Strategic Research survey, the key Jubilee partners were Uhuru, Eldoret North MP William Ruto and Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi. Yesterday Jubilee expelled Mudavadi and his UDF party from the coalition.
However the Strategic Research opinion poll indicated that Mudavadi was making a significant contribution to the Jubilee numbers.
Of those who preferred the Jubilee coalition, 18.4 percent wanted Musalia as the candidate compared to 71.9 percent for Uhuru and a meagre 4.3 percent for Ruto (perhaps because he only was seeking the running mate position).
Strategic Research also found that the Jubilee alliance enjoyed 25.9 percent support in Western, a figure that might fall sharply once Mudavadi quit the alliance.
Mudavadi's departure could easily provide CORD with the extra 0.3 per cent that it would need to win on the first round.
Within CORD, Raila remains the preferred presidential candidate with 92.8 percent of respondents while Kalonzo has 6.2 per cent, according to Strategic Research.
If their preferred favorite candidates are not nominated, 75 percent said they would still vote for their preferred coalitions. However, a significant 13 percent said they would switch to others coalitions.
Of this 13 percent, 14 per cent are in Jubilee while 10 per cent are in Cord. The 10 percent of Cord who would vote in another coalition are mainly Raila's supporters and Raila will most probably be Cord's candidate.
In Jubilee, 33.6 percent of those who would switch are Mudavadi supporters. Therefore Jubilee could lose 4.7 percent of the vote if Mudavadi left.
In the poll, the Tunawesmake alliance of Peter Kenneth and Raphael Tuju is the third most preferred coalition at 3.1 per cent. The Pambazuko Coalition, with Eugene Wamalwa, Nicholas Biwott and Cyrus Jirongo, and Martha Karua both have 1.7 per cent. Prof Ole Kiapi is trailing with 0.2 percent support.
The poll was conducted between December 17 and 19 with face-to-face using questionnaires for 1,500 respondents over 18 years old from 36 counties.Strategic Research itself sponsored the poll.
The margin of error was plus or minus 1.6 per cent with a 95% confidence level. CORD leads in five of the eight provinces- Coast (66.4 per cent), Eastern (48.6), North Eastern (58), Nyanza (83.1) and Western (66.2). Jubilee leads in three provinces- Nairobi (49 per cent), Central (88.6) and Rift Valley (55.9).
The president must win 50 per cent of all votes, plus one, and at least 25 per cent of the votes cast in at least 24 counties. The total number of registered voters is 14.3 million.
Combined, the five provinces where CORD leads have 27 counties (Coast 6, Eastern 8, North Eastern 3, Nyanza 6 and Western 4).
Combined, the three provinces where Jubilee leads have only 20 counties - Rift Valley 14, Nairobi 1 and Central 5. If Cord carries the day, it is likely to beat the rule of at least 25 percent in 24 counties rule.
“With Jubilee falling apart, three things are likely to happen. Mudavadi's supporters will quit and shop for another coalition. Jubilee will most likely be scandalized over the alleged dishonesty and finally CORD will get good ammunition to fight Jubilee,” said Strategic Research's Caesar Handa when releasing the poll results yesterday. He said Jubilee ticket might be in Cord “catch-up mode” from now on.
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