Sunday, January 22, 2012

Experts: Judges verdict likely to favour Ruto, Uhuru’s popularity



By Vitalis Kimutai and Peter Opiyo

The ruling by International Criminal Court (ICC) will have an impact on political careers of Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Eldoret North MP William Ruto and Tinderet’s Henry Kosgey.
Should the charges be confirmed, Uhuru, also Finance minister, Head of Public Service Francis Muthaura and Postmaster General Hussein Ali may find their stay in public office untenable.
Radio presenter Joshua Sang’s political ambitions — he has previously showed interest in running for a parliamentary seat — may be shattered if the charges against him are confirmed.
Legal experts and scholars on Sunday expressed their opinions on the impact of the ruling. Lawyer Godfrey Musila says it is straightforward on the side of ICC that the suspects cannot be barred from holding public office but ‘a fairly complicated’ affair from the Kenyan side.
He, however, said the case involving Deputy Chief Justice Nancy Baraza, where she was accused of brandishing a gun to a guard, would set the bar on how integrity as outlined in Chapter Six of the Constitution is interpreted.
"How Baraza’s case turns out will have an impact on the interpretation of integrity. It will inform how judges will handle the issue should anyone take it to court," said Musila.
He pointed out that it is the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission and the courts that would have a say on whether the suspects hold office or seek elective positions.
Musila said should anyone move to court to challenge the suspects’ holding of public office and should the charges be confirmed, then it will squarely be in the province of the courts to give a direction.
Mr Titus Bitok, a Moi University law lecturer, said even if the charges are confirmed, the careers of the suspects, especially the politicians, would not go downhill.
Full throttle
"The general feeling is that the suspects have been made sacrificial lambs and in politics heroism is born out of such situations," Bitok said.
He said if the suspects are cleared, it would be a boon for them and that those interested in politics would hit the campaign trail in full throttle.
Bitok said: "Their heroism would not be equated to that of Nelson Mandela, Martin Luther King or Salva Kiir. But since Kenyan politics is tribal based, you would expect that they would attract a lot of sympathy from the people."
He said even though the Rome Statutes do not bar any of the candidates from contesting for an elective post if the charges are confirmed, it was likely that civil society groups will move to court invoking Chapter Six of the Constitution on integrity and leadership.
Prof Sammy Kubasu, chairman of University Academic Staff Union, noted any verdict by ICC will result in voters rallying behind Uhuru and Ruto.
"As a matter of fact, since the ICC process started, the rating of Uhuru and Ruto has been rising while that of their competitors have registered a decline. It is indicative of things to come in the future," Kubasu said.
He said it would be difficult for the support of the two politicians to wane even if the case goes to full hearing.
"In the event of one of the suspects being elected president in the next General Election, it would not change anything on the local scene. But it will be a different ball game if the suspects are eventually convicted," Kubasu stated.
He said Chapter Six of the Constitution on leadership and integrity cannot be invoked in regards to the suspects contesting for elective posts in the next General Election because they have not been convicted of any crime.
United States International University don Prof K’Orwa Adar says the suspects should not hold public office should the charges be confirmed since it would be a blow to their integrity.
"You can’t be a leader if there is some degree of guilt in your character, because a leader should be a person of high moral authority," said Prof Adar. Uhuru and Ruto said on Tuesday that they were not losing sleep as the clock ticks towards the verdict being delivered and that they were busy with their campaigns for the presidency.
Distract resolve
"My campaign is not built around the ICC process but on agenda that I have for this country. These are processes that will ultimately end and should not derail our campaigns," Uhuru said.
He added, "What is important is for Kenyans not to panic, remain calm and maintain peace and continue to build the country."
Ruto on his part said with a chuckle, "Honestly, I have not been thinking about it at all. In fact you just reminded me. I have always maintained I am innocent and I believe time and truth will vindicate us in the end."
Ruto said ICC ruling would not distract his resolve to change the living standards of Kenyans.
"We are going to mobilise support from every part of the country and make sure we are in the next government," Ruto stated.
Sang told The Standard on Sunday that he will wait for the court’s decision before commenting on the issue. "Let us wait for the ICC to release its verdict then we can discuss the issue," Sang said on telephone.

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