Hague verdict sets stage for political realignments

By Alex Ndegwa

The International Criminal Court ruling has sent ripples across the political landscape, with emerging political realignments poised to shape up the Kibaki succession.

With the indictment of Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto, who are presidential aspirants, political jockeying and alliance formation is intensifying.

Uhuru, Ruto and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka revived joint public rallies after a brief lull, when each had retreated to their own political outfits, with Friday meeting in Eldoret and another in Ruiru.

Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s ODM MPs gleefully milked political capital out of the appearance with Tinderet MP Henry Kosgey at a press conference to celebrate the Orange chairman’s acquittal by the ICC Pre-Trial Chamber.

Already, the ICC verdict has claimed casualties in Uhuru and Francis Muthaura, who resigned as Finance Minister and Head of Public Service, respectively, unsettling President Kibaki’s power sanctum.

ODM demands that Uhuru cedes the DPM position and wants to be involved in filling Muthaura’s post. These have prompted a sensational claim they are plotting a ‘strategic’ walkout from Government ahead of the General Election.

Smear campaigns

PNU nominated MP George Nyamweya claimed: "They are used to running campaigns against somebody. They fear running as an incumbent party and want excuses to out. What better opportunity than to claim they are fed up with impunity in Government and then accuse the President of clinging onto power knowing the public wants elections this year."

Uhuru and Ruto face court cases challenging their eligibility to contest the presidency and should they be locked out, focus shifts to their preferred candidate in their quest to influence the next Government.

Alongside Kalonzo, Internal Security Minister George Saitoti and Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa, they have been associated with the G7 political alliance, which observers suggest may have been handed a new lease of life by the ICC outcome.

But although Saitoti had struck an election pact with Kalonzo and Uhuru under PNU Alliance, the PNU chairman has been reluctant about the Alliance, and has so far skipped two meetings. He has never attended Uhuru and Ruto’s peace rallies.

Campaigns for the elections, possible this year if the principals dissolve the coalition or March next year upon dissolution of Parliament, could be defined by ICC debate.

Uhuru and Ruto, united by events following the disputed 2007 presidential vote in which they backed Kibaki and Raila, face the tricky mission to unite the Kalenjin and Kikuyu to vote as a bloc. The two communities were in opposing camps in the 2002 elections in which Kibaki trounced Uhuru, in 2005 and 2010 referendums, and in the 2007 polls.

Another factor is whether Uhuru and Ruto, who have blamed their woes on Raila, although the ICC intervened after Government dithered to form a local tribunal, would ensure the ODM leader suffers the ICC political backlash.

"Uhuru and Ruto are unlikely to be on the ballot, but they are going to be more formidable when denied the opportunity to contest," Ikolomani MP Boni Khalwale said.

Lands Minister James Orengo, however, contends the political divide will "remain essential", but agrees the ICC debate will feature in electoral campaigns. "The ICC will attract sympathy for some people and cause revulsion in some areas. That would weaken the support of some and strengthen others. The dynamics might change substantially because politicians would want to take advantage of everything during elections," Orengo told The Standard On Sunday.

Imenti Central MP Gitobu Imanyara suggested with Uhuru and Ruto’s candidatures unlikely, they would focus on a compromise candidate against the PM. "It is who Uhuru and Ruto will support that is now in question. Will they back Kalonzo?" Imanyara posed.

Making inroads

"With Kibaki retiring, whoever persuades the Meru who are a significant bloc could have an edge. The PM has been courting the region. I am not surprised Uhuru and Ruto are coming next weekend," he added. "One should take comments made this time with a pinch of salt because the emotions are still high," Khalwale said of prospects of Wamalwa carrying the flag.

Planning Assistant Minister Peter Kenneth and Gichugu MP Martha Karua’s camps too hope to capitalise on the developments. Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi’s team will pitch his candidature as the best bet for ODM to deflect the hostility Raila has attracted.

Raila has dismissed allegations by Uhuru and Ruto that he orchestrated their trials at The Hague to rule them out of the elections.

"Throwing accusations against each other saying: ‘so and so wants to put so and so into problems so that they can clear so and so out of the way’, is not the way to get this country out of this situation," the PM told Parliament in December 2010 when Moreno-Ocampo named six Kenyan suspects.

Political realignments have shaken both ODM and PNU. Ruto and rebel ODM MPs have fled to the United Republican Party, after they were rejected in the United Democratic Movement. During its launch, Cabinet Minister Chirau Ali Mwakwere of PNU and Assistant Minister Kazungu Kambi (Kanu) were in attendance. ODM-Kenya (Now Wiper party) chairman Samuel Poghisio has lately hobnobbed with Ruto.

PNU has also been hit by the shifting political loyalties with some youthful MPs registering the United Democratic Forum.

Nyamweya says UDF, which he claims has the support of 40 MPs, would not be party to alliances riding on ethnic muscle to power.