Scramble for the swing vote blocs

By Beauttah Omanga and Vitalis KimutaiThe flurry of rallies hosted by four key politicians eyeing State House next year bears one distinct common denominator — winning a commanding hand over Kenya’s traditional swing vote blocs. The regions the politicians have showed interest in also stand out in the fact that they host communities none of whose leaders has showed interest in the top seat. 

The leaders in question are: Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Eldoret North MP William Ruto, Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta. They seemingly are in early campaign mode to stuff their Presidential vote baskets, but at the same time ensuring they meet the constitutional threshold on county votes. 

Alongside them are politicians such as Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa and Water minister Charity Ngilu who, so far, are not clear whether they will run on their own or back one of the top four.
The rush for county votes is reportedly fuelled by the crucial requirement that the winning presidential candidate should win in more that half of the 47 counties.
The Constitution also says a candidate to be declared President, one should get, "at least 25 per of the votes cast in each of the more than half of the counties."
On top of this is the first and higher requirement that Kenya’s next President must get "more than half of all the votes cast in the election." 

The battle is now confined to Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Kisii, Nyamira, Narok and Kajiado counties as well as the entire Coast Province.
On Sunday, Raila moved to Kisii, where South Mugirango MP Manson Nyamweya hosted him while Ruto went back to Meru. Over the last four months Raila has visited Meru four times, while Ruto has been there six times, compared to two visits by Uhuru and Kalonzo. Raila has also been to Kisii twice over the last few months, while Ruto has made working tour of Kisii accompanied by former South Mugirango MP Omingo Magara.

On Sunday, Ruto moved back to Meru barely four days after Raila left the area, and just days after he was there.
"Ruto is in Meru to attend thanksgiving parties for two civic leaders elected on a United Democratic Movement (UDM) ticket in Igoji and Kirimara by-elections respectively," said Belgut MP Charles Keter.

Higher Education Assistant minister Asman Kamama claimed Ruto enjoys the goodwill of the Rift Valley people and most parts of the country — including Coast and Western. Keter said Ruto was focusing on Meru and Coastal regions where he said he enjoys massive following, which was cemented during the constitutional referendum last year. 

"Raila has been targeting Meru because he knows Ruto has a big following there. That is further illustrated by the fact that UDM (which Ruto has taken over) has won two civic seats in the region," Keter said.

Ruto is also expected to hold a major rally in Mombasa this Friday, where he is expected to be hosted by Cabinet minister Chirau Ali Mwakwere.
On Raila’s visit to Kisii, Trade Assistant minister and Bomachoge MP Simon Ogari said it was on development issues but had a bearing on 2012 polls.
"Obviously the PM has to endear himself and the party (ODM) to the Kisii community, hence his visit. The president too is keen to consolidate his support ahead of his succession in 2012," said Ogari.

Nominated MP Musa Sirma and Assistant Minister Magerer Langat, who support the PM, argue that while Raila’s rivals were not sure what awaits them, the PM was confident of meeting the 25 per cent requirement in more than 24 counties.
"The only region where the PM will not garner the required percentage in a final race might be Central Province where traditional voting patterns show its electorate hardly vote for anybody else," said Sirma.

Magerer, who is the Energy Assistant minister said PM was far ahead of the rest and that he was poised to get 100 per cent in at least 37 counties.
According to Sirma, the PM is home and dry in Nyanza, Coast, North Eastern, Meru, Ukambani, Western and Nairobi. He claimed Ruto and his team were deluding themselves Raila will not get votes in Rift valley and other parts of the country. On the PM’s perceived waning support in Rift Valley, Sirma retorted he was still the popular candidate. 

And on the recent decision by suspended Industrialisation minister Henry Kosgey to decamp to Ruto’s side, Sirma asked: "I doubt if indeed Kosgey is with Ruto. What did you expect him to say in the presence of Ruto?"
But Ainamoi MP Benjami Langat who supports Ruto however says the Eldoret North MP was focusing on Eastern, North Eastern, Coast and Western where he has a good working relationship with locals and their leaders. 

"We are seeking to cement the long standing good working relationship with the people in those regions ahead of the blowing of the whistle for election next year," Langat said.
ODM Secretary General Anyang’ Nyong’o explained PM was keen to visit smaller communities like Meru, Kisii and others in the Coast in a bid to unite Kenyans.

Sources within ODM claim Ngilu is among frontrunners to be Raila’s running mate alongside Agriculture minister Sally Kosgei and that is why she is taking on Kalonzo reportedly to strengthen her bargaining hand in Eastern.

Reports also filtered Ruto has reached out to Internal Security Minister Prof George Saitoti, who is from Rift Valley but with strong Central Kenya roots, asking him join his team. It is assumed Saitoti and UDM official Martin ole Kamwaro will help Ruto’s team deliver Kajiado and Narok Counties.

But sources within Raila’s camp also said the danger of losing those two counties was considered in the recent debate over the controversial nomination of Director of Public Prosecution Mr Keriako Tobiko.
Sources told The Standard Ruto met Saitoti last Friday where it was agreed the Kajiado North MP joins the group that boasts of Kalonzo, Uhuru Kenyatta and Wamalwa. Also in attendance was Assistant minister Aden Duale who confirmed the meeting saying it was one among many Ruto was holding with "like-minded leaders". 

"All those we are talking to are ready for a joint nomination, which will give us our group’s presidential candidate for the 2012 presidential race," said Duale.
Duale revealed the arrangement among the leaders eyeing the group’s ticket when it will eventually be one movement, was that the nomination winner becomes the presidential candidate while his or her runners-up will be accepted as the running mate and eventually deputy President. The third candidate will be nominated for the position of Majority Leader in Parliament with the fourth candidate in the race being supported for the Speaker’s role in either of the Houses.
"We are working behind the scenes both at national and county level and things are shaping up’,’ declared Duale. 

Duale said they were targeting the entire Coast region where Mwakwere ranks higher in political ‘value’ than Tourism minister Najib Balala who appears to be moving to Raila’s side.
Mwakwere, he says, will team up with Cabinet minister Naomi Shabaan. But their pointman in Meru, Mithika Linturi appears to be undecided after he hosted Raila twice in seven days.
"Linturi seems undecided but I am sure he is more with Ruto than the PM," explained Duale.