MAGARA IS BEATEN; KKK AND PNU THWARTED AGAIN

By Miguna Miguna, June 10, 2010

The votes are in. The final tally is out. Ford People has shown signs of recovery, however tentative.

Simeon Nyachae has received a minor boost, though in retirement. Omingo Magara has fallen with a thud. The KKK squad has a bloody nose. The PNU is deeply divided. The ODM is nursing nasty bruises.

South Mugirango presents lessons for all the major political parties and players. Reports indicate that Manson Nyamweya of Ford People won by 14,099 votes against PDP’s Omingo Magara’s 8,585 and ODM’s Ibrahim Ochoi’s 7,638 votes. In other words, if ODM had remained united, it would have won with at least 16,233 votes.

There was no valid reason, therefore, for Omingo to have chickened out of the ODM nominations.

But the real casualties here are both PNU and Kanu. The KKK, though an amorphous formation, is also a major casualty. The people who will suffer real political damage more than any other are those PNU and Kanu honchos who abandoned their candidates and supported Omingo.

For all practical purposes, Nyamweya was a PNU candidate. He was their candidate in 2007. Nyamweya successfully petitioned against Omingo. However, rather than rally behind their candidate, leading PNU coalition pretenders to the throne, Kalonzo Musyoka, Uhuru Kenyatta and their acolytes converged on South Mugirango with massive resources to campaign for Omingo. They were blinded by their fear of and hatred for the Prime Minister. They deluded themselves that an Omingo victory would boost the dwindling fortunes of the KKK/PDM in preparation for 2012.

But South Mugirango has proven to be like the battle of Adowa for the Italians. It was the Kenyan version of Cuito Quanavale. Like Adowa and Cuito Quanavale where the ragtag Ethiopian and Umkonto we Suize armies vanquished the “modern” Italians and apartheid forces; Nyamweya exposed the political soft belly of the KKK/PDM machines.

Some may view the South Mugirango debacle as a warning shot to the Prime Minister, particularly because South Mugirango is in Nyanza Province, his bedrock. That might be an interesting angle to explore, but it doesn’t explain why both Omingo’s and Ibrahim Ochio’s total tally is more than Nyamweya’s and all the others combined. This means that had Omingo not decamped to the KKK junior squad, he could have won the ODM nominations and ultimately emerged victorious because Ochoi would have been out of contention. In other words, since the joint ODM pool of votes are more than the victor’s; an ODM candidate – whether Ochoi or Magara – would have comfortably won. Obviously, a united ODM would still have been in the lead. They will win the 2012 elections; but only if it draws appropriate lessons from the results and take immediate steps to address them.

But the real tragedy with Omingo’s precipitous and immature abandonment of ODM and the PM and his dalliance with the KKK is that selfishness and sectarianism still drive our politics. During the Bomachoge by-elections, Omingo abandoned ODM and its candidate and instead campaigned for the PDP candidate. He often paraded the PDP candidate and warned that ODM was finished. He gloated that PDP was the party of the future. He lost then and now. Later, he started attending KKK functions. He was at the Panafric Hotel fundraiser with William Ruto, Najib Balala, Uhuru Kenyatta and others, again, warning of the KKK revolution. On December 19th, 2009, the KKK’s Mvita Revolutionary Brigade camped in Mombasa and continued their routine warning of an impending revolution. William Ruto eventually gathered enough courage and declared the PM his enemy number one. Kenyans started expecting major political earthquakes, courtesy of the KKK. Nothing happened.

Then South Mugirango happened. We watched in awe as helicopters and heavy engine all terrain vehicles invaded the constituency. Again, KKK warned of the impending revolution. Money poured in like hailstones. Yet, as the dust settles after that “major” KKK incursion, all we see are bruised noses, crushed egos and dwindling fortunes. In its one year existence, the KKK has not made a dent. Not in Nyanza. Not in Rift Valley. Not in Western. Not any where. It is the KKK, more than any other grouping that needs serious lessons in politics. They should have realized that although propaganda plays a significant role in electoral politics; it tends to boomerang if stretched too far. And that is what the political KKK neophytes have done: they have not just over-extended the role of propaganda; they thought that’s all one needs. It has not worked, and it will not work.

However, PNU and ODM strategists and tacticians must also now roll up their sleeves, retreat to their bunkers and pore over the lessons of South Mugirango. There are serious and hard lessons to be learnt.

First, Henry Obuocha: how was he able to actively campaign for Nyamweya while serving in the civil service? Did he get permission from the President to campaign for Nyamweya, and if so, what role, if any, did the President play in the by-election? Was the KKK invasion of South Mugirango a subterfuge

It is instructive to note that Obwocha served in the first Kibaki administration. He is a high ranking official of Ford People, which is essentially Nyachae’s political vehicle. Ford People happens to be a member of the PNU coalition. Nyachae, Obwocha and other Ford People politicians campaigned for Kibaki and PNU in the2007 elections. They remain faithful affiliates of the PNU coalition and staunch supporters of the President. Will the Ford-People leadership reconsider its relationship with the PNU? Wouldn’t it be more feasible for them to collaborate with ODM? It is apparent that Prof George Saitoti who is the PNU chairman, did not participate in the South Mugirango by-elections. Like Ford-People, he and his allies, may need to reconsider his ongoing relationship with his KKK affiliated colleagues within PNU.

But the most important lesson for Kenyan politicians, who put greed first over fidelity to their parties, is that it doesn’t pay. In the case of Omingo, he has lost everything: he is not a treasurer of the leading party in Kenya; he is not an assistant Minister; and he is not an MP. In political terms Omingo is now nothing. The KKK dalliance has proved to be a poisoned chalice.