MOI PROJECT

By LUKE MULUNDA and MACHARIA GAITHO
Posted Thursday, June 10 2010 at 20:32

The Mr Uhuru Kenyatta who read the Budget speech on Thursday is a big progression from the lean, bewildered and seemingly reluctant greenhorn out-going president Moi tried to foist on Kenyans in 2002.

His girth has filled out considerably, and he speaks with the authority of one who is his own man, commands a sizeable constituency and has his own political ambitions that are not dependent on being led by the hand.

Common sense

The first thing you learn on listening to politicians, say the cynics, is never to trust one. What they promise isn’t necessarily what you get. You need to use common sense, watch out for your interests and decipher the fine print. The same principle applies to any examination of Mr Kenyatta. Being the Deputy Prime Minister of the grand coalition makes him a politician first, then a national bean counter second.

Conscious of this, Mr Kenyatta, 49, unsuccessfully tries to be the latter only to find himself on one side of the political divide, especially with the Kibaki succession gaining momentum. There are those who say this position — and being the son of Kenya’s founding President Mzee Jomo Kenyatta — gives him undue advantage over his political peers, offering him the high rung in the pecking order. That’s politics.

Appointment as DPM and later the coveted Finance docket automatically placed Mr Kenyatta as front-runner among the politicians from central Kenya jostling to inherit President Kibaki’s mantle. Others seeking the community political leadership were former Vice President George Saitoti, who also moved a rung up when appointed to the powerful Internal Security and Provincial Administration docket; and former Justice minister Martha Karua, who went into rebellion phase, then self-implosion by quitting the Cabinet to take battle to the Kibaki forces.

Prof Saitoti went on to capture the PNU chairmanship, but then retreated into relative inactivity leaving Mr Kenyatta head and shoulders above everybody else in the central Kenya succession tussles. During that period, he has been at the centre of a quiet but intense battle aimed at halting Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s upward mobility.

This has been evident through the so-called KKK alliance teaming up Mr Kenyatta, the Kanu chairman, with Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, who entered President Kibaki’s PNU coalition via his ODM Kenya, and the Prime Minister’s foe in the ODM party, Higher Education minister William Ruto.

Mr Kenyatta, forever the reluctant and wary politician, was always less keen than Mr Musyoka and Mr Ruto in trumpeting the KKK. That proved astute when the alliance backfired in the public view. He also has refrained from publicly taking battle to Mr Odinga, with his manoeuvres and intentions gleaned largely through some subtle moves and the activities and utterances of his key political allies.

Perhaps he preferred to concentrate on his functions as Finance minister, arguably the most influential docket. Performance of a Finance minister is, of course, measured by accomplishments in driving the economy; or one to two blunders that can redefine the whole persona.

President Kibaki to date is remembered for astute stewardship of the economy during the Kenyatta presidency and the early years of the Moi regime. His predecessor, Mr Arthur Magugu, is recalled only for failing to get printed estimates out on time, and therefore reading the 1983 Budget a week late.

Prof Saitoti is remembered for the Goldenberg scandal and other infamies of the Moi regime. Mr Kenyatta’s two predecessors, Mr David Mwiraria and Mr Amos Kimunya, are remembered for being forced out over scandals, Anglo Leasing for the former and the “secret” sale of the Grand Regency Hotel for the latter, who however is back as Trade minister.

Mr Kenyatta’s tenure almost came to be defined by the “typographical error.” The Sh9.2 billion error in this year’s supplementary Budget could easily have torpedoed Mr Kenyatta’s helm at the Treasury, but he managed to ride out of the storm. He continues to score high marks in economic circles and donor community.

The IMF and a number of local economic players say he has managed to steer the economy back to the recovery path — from 1.7 per cent in 2008 to an improved but not-so-good 2.6 per cent last year. The macro-economic environment has improved dramatically. The country’s Sh1.2 trillion debt has gradually fallen from 60 to 40 per cent of GDP, even without substantial debt relief.

“With national debt at no more than 40 per cent of GDP, the country can still borrow to finance growth,” says Deloitte East Africa partner John Kiarie in a pre-budget analysis. “Even countries like Singapore have national debt higher than their Gross Domestic Products”