Constitution: Regional positions get clearer as D-Day nears

With 36 days to August 4, regional positions on whether to go Green or Red are becoming clearer as both the Yes and No camps accelerate their vote-hunting tempo.

It is also emerging that regions are taking collective positions on the plebiscite as a result of various contentious issues such as the land question, abortion and Kadhi courts, but above all, political interests ahead of 2012.

A Synovate poll carried out between May 22-28 among 6,017 respondents had showed issues of abortion (55pc), Kadhi courts (37pc) and land (32pc) were the major reasons that the No respondents cited for opposing the Proposed Constitution.

While Nyanza and Western provinces have demonstrated they are predominantly for Yes, the neighbouring Rift Valley Province is firmly a No zone.

Central and Eastern provinces are regions without clear indicators of where the people's stand is, as is Coast Province.

While North Eastern Province is likely to vote Yes due to the Kadhi courts inclusion in the Proposed Constitution, Nairobi Province, being cosmopolitan as it is, equally lacks clear indicators of which camp will carry the day.

University of Nairobi political science lecturer Adams Oloo said majority in Central Province are likely to vote Yes due to the Kibaki factor and a reforming Uhuru Kenyatta, while Eastern Province will play swing vote.

"Because Kibaki has clearly stated he is for Yes and pressure on Uhuru has been immense going by the happenings at the Limuru meeting, Central will most likely vote for the proposed new law," said Dr Oloo.

Oloo said parts of the larger Meru and Ukambani may vote No due to stepped-up campaigns in the area by the No camp, making the province a swing vote’.

Common position

It has been rare for Western Province to take a common position on any national issue given deep-rooted interests fronted by some elected MPs over the years, but this year’s national referendum seems to be an exception.

With more than 20 elected MPs backing the Proposed Constitution save for Lugari’s Cyrus Jirongo and Mt Elgon’s Fred Kapondi, August 4 may provide the second opportunity in multiparty era for the region to vote as a bloc.

The situation is a total contrast of the 2005 referendum, when former ministers Mukhisa Kituyi, Musikari Kombo, the late Newton Kulundu backed by former Vice-President Moody Awori led the Banana campaigns, while current Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi, who was then outside Parliament, led the Orange brigade.

Mudavadi and Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa, who enjoys support among the youth across the province, are key in delivering the Yes votes in the region this time round.

The Yes camp pitched tent in the province on Friday and Saturday with rallies in the key towns of Bungoma and Kakamega.

In Luo Nyanza, support for the document is a foregone conclusion due to the immense influence of the PM. In Kisii, Education Minister Sam Ongeri and his Public Works counterpart Chris Obure are equally pulling towards Yes. Former Assistant Minister Wilfred Machage is the most visible No campaigner across Nyanza Province.

In Central, Uhuru who is also a Deputy Prime Minister has in recent days been accused of not leading from the front in campaigning for the Proposed Constitution. While President Kibaki declared from the word go he was for the proposed new law, Uhuru had initially announced he would stay away from the campaigns, warning that they would inflame tribal hostilities and split the country, as witnessed after the 2007 election.

However, after the Limuru conference by Central Kenya leaders last week, Uhuru has vowed to lead from the front by campaigning for Yes.

In Eastern, while the Meru and Embu regions are more of a Central Kenya extension through the Gikuyu, Embu, Meru (Gema) Association, Ukambani is proving to be a fishing ground for votes by both camps. While Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Water Minister Charity Ngilu are fronting for Yes in Ukambani, Mutito MP Kiema Kilonzo and MPs Victor Munyaka and Peter Kiilu are flying the No flag.

Maintained grip

Meanwhile, Ruto has cordoned off parts of the expansive Rift Valley Province, where he has strong following. Despite efforts by ministers in the Yes camp such as Sally Kosgei (Agriculture), Franklin Bett (Roads) and Henry Kosgey (Industrialisation) to change the tide, Ruto has maintained a strong grip over the North and South Rift regions.

In Coast most ODM MPs are supportive of the Proposed Constitution, save for Special Programmes minister Naomi Shaban and a section of church leaders opposed to Kadhi courts.

Muslims along the Coast have expressed strong support for the document as has North Eastern Province where Islam is the dominant religion.

It remains to be seen how regional positions will shape up come August 4, the day the country may break from the past or maintain the status quo.