Acid test for Jubilee over nomination
Above: Jubilee presidential aspirants Uhuru Kenyatta and Musalia Mudavadi at Malava municipal grounds in Kakamega where they addressed a joint rally on December 15, 2012. Photo/ISAAC WALE NATION MEDIA GROUP
By KIPCHUMBA SOME ksome@ke.nationmedia.com
Posted Sunday, December 16 2012 at 00:30
Posted Sunday, December 16 2012 at 00:30
IN SUMMARY
- Confusion as party officials give conflicting messages on presidential nomination
- Insiders working on the election rules say the nominations will be held on Monday or Tuesday, but a section of the alliance that supports Mr Mudavadi maintained that such a conference will not take place.
- How the nomination process is managed will determine the future of the alliance and possibly the outcome of the March 4 General Election.
Confusion has rocked the Jubilee coalition after the affiliated parties differed on how they would pick the presidential flagbearer barely 48 hours to the self-imposed deadline.
Coalition leaders Uhuru Kenyatta (TNA), William Ruto (URP) and Musalia Mudavadi (UDF) projected a united front in Nairobi and western Kenya on Saturday even as their lieutenants sent out different messages on the process.
The parties had given December 18 as the deadline to choose the presidential candidate in a coalition agreement presented to the Registrar of Political Parties last week.
Insiders working on the election rules say the nominations will be held on Monday or Tuesday, but a section of the alliance that supports Mr Mudavadi maintained that such a conference will not take place.
Other luminaries in the coalition include Mr Najib Balala of the Republican Congress Party (RCP) and Narc’s Charity Ngilu, who has also expressed interest in the alliance’s presidential ticket.
Defected
On Saturday at Jeevanjee Gardens in Nairobi where they welcomed Cooperatives Development minister Joseph Nyagah who defected from ODM to TNA, Mr Ruto said they had agreed on the nomination rules.
“We have agreed on how we are going to choose our flagbearer, and I am confident we are going to win resoundingly. And I want to assure you all that this team here will remain united to the end,” he said.
According to the coalition’s nomination rules, UDF, URP and TNA will each bring 1,500 delegates and Narc 500. Mr Balala’s RCP will also send delegates although it is yet to determine how many.
How the nomination process is managed will determine the future of the alliance and possibly the outcome of the March 4 General Election.
In the countdown to the deadline, the coalition sought to project a united front by holding a series of joint rallies in Mr Mudavadi’s western Kenya backyard on Saturday and is expected to hold other rallies in Mr Kenyatta’s Central home turf.
But UDF advisers and officials sent mixed signals about their commitment to nomination of the presidential candidate by delegates.
When asked whether UDF will be sending delegates to the conference, an adviser to Mr Mudavadi, Dr Mukhisa Kituyi, replied via text message: “Not to the best of my knowledge.”
Mr Mudavadi’s communications director Kibisu Kabetesi referred us to party secretary-general Dan Ameyo and chairman Hassan Osman for comment. Mr Ameyo promised to call back but had not done so by the time of going to press.
Mr Osman said the coalition’s technical team had not agreed on how to choose its candidate. “We are preparing a final report for the three principals’ consideration by tomorrow evening,” he said.
He said the team was weighing their options between a delegates system and consensus or a boardroom agreement. But he said UDF prefers the latter.
“There is less acrimony, and it saves a lot of resources. It also avoids a winner-takes-all scenario and therefore provides a win-win-situation for everybody.”
The coalition’s future will be defined by three issues: that all partners are satisfied with the nomination process; how to convince Mr Kenyatta’s supporters to stick with Jubilee if he loses the vote to Mr Mudavadi, and vice-versa.
Even as it looked increasingly clear that the coalition’s standard-bearer would be chosen through a vote, some officials in Mr Mudavadi’s camp maintained that a boardroom deal in favour of the Sabatia MP was in the offing.
His campaign spokesman, Mr Mundia Muchiri, said “it is highly unlikely that we will have a nomination process. It is not the appropriate way. It will polarise the coalition unnecessarily.”
He said the party was not making plans to send delegates to the conference in Nairobi. “All our parties hardly have working structures. Where will the delegates come from? Besides, it is an expensive and unnecessary process.”
TNA secretary-general Onyango Oloo said the nomination contest will be held at the Kasarani gymnasium.
“We from TNA will be presenting Uhuru to face Mudavadi in the nominations, then the people will express their will through the delegates in a democratic process,” he said.
URP spokesman Adan Duale said this was the best way to choose the coalition’s presidential candidate. “The process has to be people-driven. In any case, didn’t he (Mudavadi) ditch ODM because of an unfair nomination process?” he asked.
Nairobi metropolitan minister Jamleck Kamau said: “We had an agreement on how to choose the candidate. Why would anyone want to introduce sideshows?”
This puts the coalition in a tricky position. Should URP and TNA delegates meet in Kasarani and elect a candidate without UDF, it would probably trigger a fallout and prompt Mr Mudavadi to pull out.
However, Hamisi MP George Khaniri, a close confidant of Mr Mudavadi, said they were confident of clinching the nomination. He down- played recent threats by a section of Central Kenya MPs to walk out of the coalition should Mr Mudavadi win.
“It is their democratic right to do so. We cannot force people to do things they do not want to. But you should take note of the fact that most of those MPs have since retracted their statements,” he said.
In case the coalition opts for a nomination process, Mr Ruto’s URP, Mrs Ngilu’s Narc and Mr Balala’s RCP delegates will most likely play the kingmaker role. However, it is the position of URP delegates that has drawn the interest of political pundits
URP delegates
While some political analysts argue that it can be fairly concluded that the Narc and RCP delegates are locked in favour of Mr Kenyatta, far less certain is the allegiance of the URP delegates.
Although the URP delegates are thought to be leaning towards Mr Kenyatta since the party and TNA were the founder members of the coalition, some observers contend this may not hold true on nomination day.
“You couldn’t say for certain that URP delegates, especially from the Kalenjin land, will support Mr Kenyatta, given the murmurs of discontent that have greeted his candidature,” said Prof Egara Kabaji of Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology. However, Dr Joshua Kivuva, a lecturer of political science at the University of Nairobi, contends that Mr Ruto might not be keen on upstaging Mr Kenyatta.
“The arrangement they have works for them individually and for the peace process between their respective communities,” he said.
Dr Kivuva said should Mr Kenyatta win the nomination and Mr Mudavadi leave in protest, the challenge for the coalition would be to recoup the supporters with whom he would walk away.
“In my analysis, if Mudavadi wins, Uhuru might walk away with most supporters from Central. But if Uhuru wins, Musalia will walk away with some supporters from Western. But the coalition can recoup these votes by offering Ngilu a substantial role in the coalition to woo a section of the Kamba vote,” he said. (READ: The latest headache for Uhuru)
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