HOW RUTO ALLIES PLAN TO LOCK OUT RAILA

Nairobi — HIGHER Education Minister William Ruto and his allies are working on a masterplan to lock out Prime Minister Raila Odinga out of the top seat in the 2012 polls.

Ruto's lieutenants say the Minister will run for President against Raila, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka and Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa in a scheme that will ensure no candidate achieves the threshold to win the presidency.

The new constitution requires a President to garner at least 50 percent + one majority of the votes cast in a general election. The winner must attain also get at least 25% of votes in a half of the counties countywide. This means that one must have the support of 24 out of the total 47 counties.

"We know that Raila will still top even after all these people have contested. But once the first round is over we will all gang up against Raila and that will ensure that the candidate who comes in second wins the presidency during the second round," said an MP known to be very close to Ruto.

At the weekend Ruto held meetings with various groups including councillors where he is reported to have told them that he remains in the race to succeed President Kibaki.

Ruto is said not to have ruled out an alliance with other presidential candidates "except one whom he did not mention". It is understood that Ruto was referring to Raila whom he supported in the last election but has since then fallen out with.

According to those who attended a meeting at Ruto's Sugoi home over the weekend, the Kalenjin-Kikuyu-Kamba Alliance members believe that forging a united campaign would be the only way to beat Raila to the presidency.

According to latest opinion polls, the overwhelming support for the new constitution has increased the chances of Prime Minister Raila bagging the presidency in 2012.

The survey conducted by pollsters Infotrak Harris shows the winning candidate will have to carefully select his or her running mate.

Raila's popularity is placed at 46 per cent, some 33 points clear of his nearest challenger, according to results of the survey conducted between August 13 and 15.

His closest potential challenger, according to the poll, is Uhuru, whose popularity is pegged at 13 per cent.

The third most popular politician, the pollsters found, is Ruto at 10 per cent.

Water minister Charity Ngilu ranks fourth in the ratings at seven per cent followed closely by Kalonzo and Gichugu MP Martha Karua at six per cent.

Deputy PM Musalia Mudavadi is perceived as a potential President by four per cent of those who were surveyed.

According to the plan by Ruto's supporters, Kalonzo will consolidate the Eastern bloc, Ruto the Rift valley block, Uhuru Mt Kenya bloc while Eugene will divide the Western Kenya vote to deal Musalia and Raila a blow in the region.

Yesterday MPs allied to Ruto in Rift Valley remained guarded about his plans saying it was too early to discuss the issue.

"Things are boiling up but let's discuss how we will cross that bridge when the right time comes," said Cherangany MP Joshua Kuttuny.

Retired President Moi and his son Gideon are also said to be keenly scheming for the 2012 polls particularly in the interests of the Kalenjin community. Gideon is said to be considering his options depending on several crucial events that might take place before the 2012 polls.

Sources close to the three top presidential contenders revealed that they are in favour of a pre-election deal considering that they have the capacity to force a second round of voting in which one of them will possibly run against Raila.

"What we now know is that a representative of the Kalenjin community being Gideon or Ruto then Uhuru and Kalonzo will run for Presidency and only enter into a post election deal after the first round of voting", says Kanu official Paul Kibet who is an ally of the Mois.

Raila over the weekend termed 2012 as the mother of all political battles and Ruto who was in Rift Valley for a series of private and public functions made it clear that he will fight to the end and that he was not ready to let down his supporters.

"I am now prepared for the battle and nothing will stop me from going up. I value those who stood with me during the referendum and I am not ready to let them down", Ruto told a meeting attended by councilors and his close political associates at his Sugoi home in Eldoret North.

Ruto reportedly told the councilors that he was not ready for another round of political betrayal and that is why backing down from the top seat will only be an option after the elections.

"We have told him that he is our flag bearer and we are not expecting anything short of that. We know he has the capacity to take on the others because the new constitution presents a good opportunity for all presidential aspirants to try out their luck", says Wareng County Council Chairman Paul Kiprop who led delegation that met Ruto at his home.
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However all the presidential aspirants are now grappling with the idea of how they will pick their running mates because the constitution demands that they have to name the running mates prior to the elections.

Sources indicate that Ruto is considering a running mate from the Coast region while Uhuru is looking Western Province while Kalonzo has options in Rift Valley although still it will be difficult for any of the presidential candidates to get the outright fifty plus one votes and win 25 percent in half of the 47 counties in the first round voting.

Ruto and the other candidates are also working out details of the parties they will use in the 2012 polls.

"By running separately the presidential aspirants will ensure that they do not loose backing within their regions because if they drop out of the race then many people will have the freedom to decide whom t vote for," says Engineer Tom Murgor in Eldoret.