Sunday, January 15, 2012

Would principals agree to an early 2012 elections?


Debate on whether President Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga would agree to dissolve the Coalition Government to pave way for a possible election in December raged, as opinion remained divided.By VITALIS KIMUTAI

There are those who think Kibaki would agree to the arrangement of dissolving the coalition for him to
The public mood is for elections to be held this year, the President is keen to oversee a smooth transition, while MPs want their full terms. The focus is now on Kibaki and Raila... [Photo: FILE/STANDARD]
have absolute and unfettered Executive authority until his term ends on December 30. There are also those who think Raila would stick to the end of his tenure.
Kibaki and Raila will stick to the end of his tenure. Kibaki and Raila will be juggling the political ball as they try to continue nurturing their cordial working relationship, which has thrived since the promulgation of the Constitution in August 2010.
It’s a catch 22 for both principals as Kenyans train their eyes on them to see what direction they will be giving them in the coming days.
Political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi told The Standard On Sunday that there was a possibility of Kibaki staying in office longer than has so far been predicted.
"It is possible that Kibaki could be in office for over four months or even up to three years. It is a possibility," Ngunyi said, adding that it all depends on how the General Election is managed.
Ngunyi said that there were many contradictions in the transitional clauses in the Constitution, but hastened to add that there would not be a vacuum or constitutional crisis if elections were to be held in March.
President Kibaki is keen to ensure a smooth transition and will in the coming days be poring through the options –key among them to ensure that the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission is prepared to hold a credible poll.
On the other hand, Raila, knowing that the public mood is to hold elections this year, could seek to align himself with the public mood. But, at the same time, he would not like to do it in a manner that ruffles his co-principal at a time he is endearing himself to voters in Central Province.
Dr Mutakha Kangu, a law lecturer, said the principals should agree to an election being held before the end of the year to put to rest issues of litigation and hard questions that could create anxiety.
Ainamoi MP Benjamin Langat said it was possible that Raila being a presidential aspirant in the elections would demand the country goes to the poll in December.
"Raila might want to take advantage of his position and arm-twist Kibaki into agreeing to an election at the end of this year so that he is seen to have captured public mood which favours this year," Langat said.
Mr Justin Muturi, chairman, Centre for Multiparty Democracy, said the principals have an opportunity to go into mutual agreement to dissolve the Grand Coalition government without reference to their supporters.
"The issue of the President being in office unconstitutionally may arise and could be complicated if the country goes for a presidential run-off," Muturi, who is Kanu’s organising secretary, said.
Muturi said it would not be in the interest of the PM to have the election in March, as he would be seen to have legitimised Kibaki’s extended tenure.
Mr Onesmus Murkomen, a Moi University law lecturer, said Kenyans should put pressure on the two principals to call for an election in December instead of March, next year.
"We should put sufficient pressure as a people to prevail upon President Kibaki to call for an election in December, as holding the poll next year would disrupt learning in schools and majority of voters might not participate in the historic event," Murkomen stated.
He said it would not augur well for the principals to be seen to be keen on extending their terms at a time the country was in an election mood.
Supreme court
Law Society of Kenya Vice-Chairman James Mwamu said it was unlikely for Kibaki and Raila to agree on an earlier election date, other than March that the High Court has given. "The people may need to engage the Supreme Court to get further clarity on the matter," Mwamu said.
He, however, said that even if the election were held in March as directed by the High Court, there would not be a leadership vacuum, as Kibaki and Raila’s terms were preserved in the current Constitution.
"The two principals would be in charge of Government until a new President is sworn-in and as such there should be no cause for alarm," Mwamu stated. A political analyst and lecturer at the University of Nairobi Adams Oloo said the powers of the President to dissolve Parliament had been taken away in the new Constitution.
"The current House will run its full term, as the President can no longer dissolve Parliament as it would create a serious constitutional issue with litigations arising," Dr Oloo said.
Oloo said the principals would not be keen to create another crisis that could endanger transition.
Assistant Minister Kabando wa Kabando said the High Court ruling should be respected, as the Judiciary had demonstrated independence.
"From the word go, it was clear that the election would not be held in August or December. But politicians and the media were not courageous enough to tell the people as they feared backlash from the civil society groups," Mr Kabando said.
Mosop MP David Koech said that the election should be held in December to avoid the potentially serious issue of a power vacuum if the election date is pushed to next year.
Mr Koech said Kibaki and Raila should ensure they guide the country through elections, in a manner that would safeguard national stability.
Chepalungu MP, Isaac Ruto, said despite the ruling Parliament should set an election date, which, he said, should be between December 28 and 30.
Mr Ruto said that the Constitution should be amended to allow for December elections.
Nyatike MP, Omondi Anyanga, said that the court verdict should be respected, as the principals should also be seen to respect the rule of law.
"In the event that Kibaki and Raila agrees to dissolve the Grand Coalition Government ahead of the expiry of the current tem of Parliament, Kenyans would readily go for an election," Mr Anyanga said.
Wajir West MP Muhamud Sirat said that if the principals felt that there was need for an early election they should first ensure that the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission programmes would not be disrupted.

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