Saturday, January 21, 2012

Why ICC decision on post-poll cases will not change political fortunes



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By KWAMCHETSI MAKOKHA
Posted  Friday, January 20  2012 at  17:23
Blow the horn as the cock crows, because all will be well with the political universe.
Presidential hopefuls William Ruto’s and Uhuru Kenyatta’s political ambitions to lead Kenya to prosperity cannot be derailed by the mumblings of three judges 6,000 kilometres away from home.
The irrelevance of the Pre-Trial Chamber II judges’ decision on whether or not any of the six Kenyan suspects will face charges at the International Criminal Court should become apparent to the whole world as soon as it is pronounced.
In the event of a decision to dismiss the charges of murder, rape, torture, persecution and forcible transfer of populations, the two presidential candidates will most likely put the whole sad episode down to malice and never speak further about it as they canvass the country for votes.
Being forgiving people, they will not blame anyone for their experience, choosing instead to thank those who helped them to see a corner of the world they would otherwise never have visited and gain insights on governance.
Although a decision to dismiss charges may not be the same as a declaration of innocence, voters in Kenya will see it for what it is.
Victims of the 2008 post-election violence will quickly abandon their pretend injuries, adjust their sails to the wind and join other Kenyans in readiness to usher in a new dispensation under Mr Ruto, Mr Kenyatta, or both — as the six suspects are recognised in their new role as victims of a grave international injustice.
In the absence of real victims, the Director of Public Prosecutions would find it difficult to investigate the post-election violence because it would have been a victimless crime.
In the unlikely event that the judges decide to confirm the charges against any of the suspects, the campaigns of the two presidential hopefuls would not break a step.
After all, the accusations would remain false, unfounded and motivated by ill will on the part of their inferior competitors, who can smell defeat from miles off.
Should the bearers of false testimony and pretenders to death, injury, displacement and other loss persist in their attempts to derail the irresistible rise of a new leadership in Kenya, they shall be roundly ignored.
After all, what is a mere 1,133 deaths resulting from the post-election violence?
It is not small enough to be classified as murder and not large enough to be genocide. Drivers kill a higher number on Kenyan roads and never have to lose sleep over it.
The 3,561 people injured do not even hold a candle to those who suffer mishaps on the roads, in factories and homes each year.
The destruction of 117,216 private properties and 491 government-owned ones is a small price to pay for an election.
And displacing 600,000 people is gross, but most of them have since been resettled in their homes or in better, safer climes.
In the end, all these numbers put together do not even make a million votes.
In a country expected to register at least 19 million voters for the next General Election, a million people are not enough to even make one a deputy governor.
There are 19 million voters out there who will not have experienced or even heard of the post-election violence. These are the real voters who will choose Kenya’s next leadership.
In order to win the election for President, Mr Ruto and Mr Kenyatta do not even need all the 19 million votes. Just half will do.
That is why, whatever the outcome of the Pre-Trial II Chamber, the separate or joint candidacies of Mr Ruto and Mr Kenyatta cannot be shaken.
Sound the horn; let the cock crow and the presidential campaigns roll on.

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