Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Military exposes warfare tricks elusive Somali militia deploy


By David Ochami in Southern Somalia

Despite inflicting damage on Al Shabaab militia and expelling them from a large section of Gedo region, Kenyan and Somalia Transitional Federal Government (TFG) troops are not under-estimating the militants’ ability to hit back.
What KDF spokesman Col Cyrus Oguna meant in October last year when he said war against Al Shabaab "is not a picnic" is underlined by TFG spokesman Warfa Sheikh Aden in Somalia’s Burhache town.
Al Shabaab is believed to have between 800 and 1,200 insurgents, including foreign fighters in the three sectors. The foreigners mainly train local insurgents in the use of heavy weapons and also prepare most of the Improvised Explosive Devices (IED).
Through propaganda the militants routinely deny their losses, make extravagant claims of victory and exaggerate enemy losses on their radio station Al Andalus and social media.
The group’s techno-savvy campaigners have waged the propaganda war to mask widening rifts within the movement and territorial losses as well as Al Shabaab’s inability to re-supply their fighters effectively.
Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) has established bases deep into Somalia, including at Busar in the Northern Sector and Bilis Qooqani in the Central Sector, but military planners are not underestimating Al Shabaab’s ability to retaliate inside Somalia and on the Kenyan home front.
The New Year attack on a bar in Garissa where five people were killed and last Thursday’s killing of a KDF soldier at Bilis Qooqani by an IED are a remainder of Al Shabaab’s capabilities.
KDF’s strategy of attrition has taken away Al Shabaab’s training bases in towns like Dobley and Busar and also cut main road accesses to Kenya and the port of Kismayu, slowing down supplies and rearmament in the hinterland.
The group, however, is believed to have Russian made anti-aircraft guns of SE 23, DESHE 21 and SE 20 calibre, several artillery pieces (especially in the central sector) and Dushka 12.7 millimetre machine guns mounted on pick-ups. They are also believed to hold stocks of 60 and 82 millimetre caliber mortar bombs and anti-tank missiles.
But Al Shabaab’s ground vehicles are no match for Kenya’s Panhard tanks, aerial vehicles, electronic and airborne reconnaissance and long-range artillery besides the overall superior skill of Kenyan fighters that include special forces.
Building up defence
In the central sector Al Shabaab’s key leader for the lower Juba region Hassan Turki is still hidden around Hayo plains with a band of hardened fighters.
Besides IEDs, KDF and TFG forces in the sector are encountering a constant stream of fighters trying to move from Bardheere and Garbaharey areas through Fafadun Southwards to defend Afmadow and Kismayu.
When the KDF crossed into Somalia, the towns near the border fell easily, almost without a fight although Al Shabaab had in many cases encouraged or forced residents to flee from "infidels", but the militants tended to resist the capture of towns further inland. Even where they fled without a fight the militants have tried to recapture lost towns.
Busar, about 73 kilometres from Somalia’s border with Kenya, is a case in point. Al Shabaab offered a stiff resistance as the KDF swept in. A soldier was killed mid November when the militants shelled a KDF base with rocket propelled grenade.
Local residents report that Al Shabaab fighters who stayed in Busar as the Kenyans advanced say resistance crumbled within half an hour.
Major Joel Tanui of KDF who led the capture of Busar told The Standard in an exclusive interview recently that Al Shabaab fighters "tried to resist from buildings and outskirts of the town".
The militants reportedly unleashed a shower of rocket-propelled grenades and light gunfire from hillsides and valleys around Busar, the most important weapons in their arsenal, according to KDF and TFG.
The joint forces’ officials say the militants change tactics to adapt to its enemy’s strategy. So far it has not been able to detonate suicide bombs on KDF forces, largely because of the strict rules of engagement between the KDF and the civilian population and also due to the fact that the militants have tended to flee from close combat.
Prior to the Kenyan intervention Al Shabaab tended to deploy thousands of fighters on trucks to seize towns. This tactic was used on Burhache, a strategic town close to the Kenyan border, which the militants lost in March last year.
On September 11, says TFG brigade commander for Gedo Abbas Ibrahim Gure, close to 2,700 fighters descended on the town from three directions from Bardheere.
After a nightlong battle TFG lost 30 fighters and killed 170 militants, according to Abbas.
But due to the fear of airstrikes Al Shabaab has avoided road transport in favour of small teams of highly mobile fighters.
TFG regional spokesman Warfa Sheikh Aden reports that Al Shabaab has lately placed its fighters and trucks next to water wells and areas with civilian concentrations.
Late last month, Warfa says Kenyan war-planes averted an air-strike on Al Shabaab fighters on a pick-up truck in the township of Yaqle in Northern Gedo when the militants drove it to a well teeming with civilians.
According to Warfa, the most decisive battle in the northern sector will be fought in Bardheere and Burdubo, two key towns on the main highway to Baidoa in South Central Somalia.
In this sector Al Shabaab is believed to have moved many of its fighters and heavy weapons to bridges on the Juba River, intending to dismantle them if overpowered. It has also staged fighters, including foreigners in the deep valleys and mountainous ranges around El Ade, which Kenyan planes have bombed lately to slow or deter an advance on Bardheere.
When they move, they dismount from vehicles about sixty kilometres from targets to lay ambushes and plant IEDs often at night.
Says Warfa: "They normally fight in the morning and evening so that they can get adequate time to retreat under cover of darkness and cooler temperatures. They also like to ambush from mountainous areas and deep valleys. When their strength is low they remove their uniform and fight within the civilian population."

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