Monday, January 2, 2012

Lessons Kenya can learn from US in Iraq



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By SULEIMAN OTIENO
Posted  Sunday, January 1  2012 at  17:07
In October last year, Kenya launched an offensive against the dreaded Al-Shabaab which controls much of Somalia, justifying the war on the basis of protecting Kenyan interests threatened by increased attacks and kidnappings of foreign tourists.
The offensive, codenamed “Operation Linda Nchi” was an answer to increased piracy attacks on the Kenyan coast which negatively affected the tourism and shipping industries, as well as general insecurity in Kenya and the wider East African region.
The series of attacks were linked to Al-Shabaab, a terrorist group that has also waged an insurgency against Somalia’s transitional government since 2006.
While the war on Al-Shabaab, a group with affiliation to Al-Qaeda, might have been spurred by different reasons, it is similar to American military invasion and occupation of Iraq for more than eight years.
This occupation ended with the US military withdrawal in December.
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Analysts believe that the US withdrawal leaves Iraq more vulnerable to internal insurgency, and that strategically, it lost the war.
In the course of the occupation, an estimated 100,000 troops were deployed since 2003 and an estimated 4,500 American fatalities reported.
Some argue that the void left by the withdrawal of US forces might be easily filled by terrorist groups like Al-Qaeda and by Iran. They believe the circumstances of the withdrawal favours Iran, and the power-shift could see the country flexing its muscles in the region.
With the Obama administration talking of Iraq’s “stability”, “sovereignty”, and “demilitarisation”, one can’t help but ask whether the withdrawal was a sign of failure.
The unconventionality of the war against terrorism offers challenges that are different from those posed by conventional war.
Though the Kenyan Defence Forces could take over towns in Somalia, the true measure of victory must include winning the trust of Somalis.
If this does not happen, Kenya risks engaging in a war it cannot win.
Consequently, the government must be wary of the erosion of public diplomacy gains if Kenyan soldiers are perceived negatively.
There should be a recognition that any negative profiling of Somalis will undermine the success of the incursion.
Kenya should support Somalia without compromising its long-term relations with the country.
A delicate balance must be maintained, especially after President Sheik Sharif Ahmed criticised the military incursion even after signing a joint communiqué calling for “decisive action” against Al-Shabaab.
Approximately 10 Kenyan military personnel have so far died since the operation started.
There is also the constant threat of terror attacks from Al-Shabaab cells operating in Kenya and the East African region.
With Kenya having sent an estimated 2,000 troops in Somalia, and a timeline for leaving Somalia not certain, perhaps Kenya should cement its ties with Somalia, the East African Community, the African Union, and Unisom for both financial and strategic reasons.
Mr Otieno is a political communication graduate student at New Mexico State University, USA. (suleiz2000@yahoo.com)

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