Sunday, January 22, 2012

A Kalonzo-Sally Kosgei ticket could be lethal



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By MAKAU MUTUA
Posted  Saturday, January 21  2012 at  18:26
My crystal ball is at it again. This time it tells me to contemplate Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka running with Agriculture minister Sally Kosgei.
I know there are “street stories” that the two couldn’t stand each other when he was minister for Foreign Affairs and she was his permanent secretary.
But that’s all in the past. They both belong to the school of thought where there aren’t permanent enemies – only permanent interests.
The lethality of a Kalonzo-Kosgei ticket can’t be overestimated. It’s a dream ticket that could intrigue pundits and confound opponents.
At the very least, it could force a runoff against Prime Minister Raila Odinga with Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi as his running mate on the ODM side.
While a Kalonzo-Kosgei ticket is easy to imagine, it’s virtually impossible to pull off. That doesn’t mean it can’t be done.
Here’s the rub. Dr Kosgei, a smart and cunning political animal, knows her value. That means she can’t be sold short.
She’s likely to play the reluctant bride until she gets what she wants. She knows she’s a precious commodity – a high-octane woman politician in a field dominated by the male gender.
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Frankly, only two other Kenyan women play in her league – Gichugu MP Martha Karua and Kitui Central MP Charity Ngilu.
With the passing of Prof Wangari Maathai, no other woman comes even close. Which means it’ll be extremely difficult for anyone to land her.
You might wonder why I am emphasising Dr Kosgei’s gender. Let me remind you if you’ve forgotten.
The new Constitution has introduced a new – and hitherto unknown – dynamic in Kenyan politics. Women. Yes, one of the primary game-changers in the 2012 elections will be women.
Remember, the Constitution provides – nay, mandates – that at least one-third of all elective offices must be occupied by women.
The 2012 political landscape will be unlike anything Kenyans have ever seen. Women will be the key to virtually every race.
Why? That’s because they will be mobilised at a fever pitch. Let me tell you something – 2012 will witness a female electoral tsunami. That’s why Dr Kosgei is an ace.
The 2012 presidential contest may turn out to be a war of the genders. This would be absolutely revolutionary and would transform the bleak fortunes of Kenyan women.
Women may rightly leave the kitchen for the boardroom. Men should watch out because the days of the patriarchy are numbered.
The woman question for 2012 means that the candidate with a female running mate may win it all.
I predict that for the first time in Kenyan history women will overwhelmingly vote for other women and for men who are pro-women.
I can’t imagine that the Stanford-educated Dr Kosgei hasn’t figured out this little puzzle. The question is whether Mr Musyoka can convince her to run with him.
It won’t be lost on Mr Musyoka that Dr Kosgei has the potential to deliver a large chunk of the Kalenjin vote to him.
Don’t throw brickbats at me – this is just the reality of Kenyan politics. This will change with time, but not soon enough for 2012.
This means that Mr Musyoka might cobble a Kalenjin-Kamba-PNU-women alliance. My math tells me that ODM and Mr Odinga would be pushed to the wall by this calculus.
We may see a war between the major candidates on who could pull in the most magnetic woman running mate. That would be historic. Dr Kosgei would bring several other assets to Mr Musyoka’s table.Perhaps Mr Odinga could counter by asking either Mrs Ngilu or Ms Karua to be his running mate.
Vision 2030 – the blueprint to make Kenya a middle income country in under two decades – will depend on who can penetrate foreign markets and attract outside investors to Kenya.
Dr Kosgei is a cosmopolitan – she’s a highly educated, articulate, and forceful persona. She’s been a diplomat.
She’s comfortable in world capitals. Who better than her to make the case for Kenya abroad as VP? I can see her charming captains of industry on Wall Street.
In her, there’s no fluff, just substance. Mr Musyoka would do well if he were to pick her and then sell this narrative to Kenyans. Such a Musyoka-Kosgei combo could be lethal.
Sentimentality is a bad thing in politics. You need the skin of a hippo in this business. My view is that sentimentality is one of Mr Musyoka’s Achille’s heels.
The man from Tseikuru seems to have a fragile ego. His feathers are easily ruffled. This is one advantage Mr Odinga has over Mr Musyoka. The PM is steely. His inner core is rock solid.
That’s why Mr Musyoka needs a cold calculator, a strategic thinker who is unmoved by the shenanigans of opponents.
I submit that Dr Kosgei fits this bill perfectly. She can watch a chicken being quartered without flinching. Dr Kosgei would bring to Mr Musyoka’s campaign a cutthroat, killer instinct, which he desperately needs.
In a democracy, nothing is more important than winning elections in a free and fair contest. What matters is whether a candidate can sell himself or herself to the electorate.
Party platforms, issues, identities, and individuals all become subordinate to something called “optics”.
Optics is about “appearances,” “how things look,” “impressions,” or the “totality of an image”. The central question – what does the electorate think when it sees a candidate?
These are optics. Question – what optics would Mr Musyoka seek to create by pairing with Dr Kosgei? Strong, dependable, inclusive, woman power, trustworthy, future, unbeatable. Good, lethal optics.
Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.

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