By MUGUMO MUNENE mmunene@ke.nationmedia.com and LILLIAN ONYANGO laonyango@ke.nationmedia.com
Posted Saturday, January 21 2012 at 22:30
Posted Saturday, January 21 2012 at 22:30
In Summary
- Court’s verdict expected to permanently alter the landscape as Kenyans prepare for elections
The much-awaited verdict by the Pre-Trial Chamber II
of the International Criminal Court on the six Kenyans is expected to
permanently alter the political landscape as the country prepares for
the next General Election. (READ: ICC Judges to decide fate of Ocampo six on Monday)
If the charges are confirmed on Monday, it is likely Deputy
Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Civil Service Chief Francis Muthaura and
Postmaster General Hussein Ali may be found unsuitable or unable to
discharge their official functions.
Prime Minister Raila Odinga may also have to fire
suspended Industrialisation minister and ODM chairman Henry Kosgey if
the charges against him are confirmed.
The departure of Mr Kenyatta and Mr Muthaura from
the Kibaki court would mean that the Head of State, who retires later in
the year, would have to appoint new faces to these key government
positions.
Mr Muthaura is Kenya’s highest ranking civil
servant and is perceived to be the powerful fulcrum around which the
presidency operates.
Mr Kenyatta, Mr Muthaura, Maj-Gen (rtd) Ali and Mr
Kosgey were named alongside Eldoret North MP William Ruto and radio
journalist Joshua arap Sang on suspicion of bearing the greatest
responsibility for the most serious crimes committed during the
post-election violence.
They have all protested their innocence and assembled top-notch legal defence teams to fight the charges.
On Saturday, the suspects were guarded about how they would prepare for and where they would receive the court’s ruling.
The International Crisis Group, a global anti-conflict
watchdog, says in a report on the Kenyan case that the ICC verdict would
have a direct bearing on Kenya’s political landscape.
“The ICC’s action is now an inescapable element of the political process as Kenya heads to elections.
Even if an early confirmation of charges may not
legally prevent the suspects from running for office, the risk of
conviction would affect supporters and allies. The timing and framing of
proceedings and decisions can lower or increase volatile tensions,” the
International Crisis Group says.
On the other hand, the crisis group estimates, if
all the charges are dropped, it is likely that the alliance between Mr
Kenyatta and Mr Ruto would not hold and each would run their own
presidential campaign.
On the other hand, at the hearing in The Hague, Mr
Kenyatta told the judges that Mr Odinga bore political responsibility
for the violence. The message that the case was politically motivated
would be repeated at the campaigns.
It remains the discretion of the ICC whether, if
charges are confirmed, the suspects will remain free men or be taken
into custody if they are found, for instance, to be interfering with
witnesses or demeaning the court.
Since their return from the confirmation of charges
hearing, the suspects have avoided speaking ill of the court in public
rallies or news conferences.
There has also been no hullabaloo and no public rallies and prayers, especially for Mr Ruto and Mr Kenyatta.
There has also been no hullabaloo and no public rallies and prayers, especially for Mr Ruto and Mr Kenyatta.
There has also been no hate speech from them and their
supporters following a warning by Judge Ekaterina Trendafilova in April
last year.
On return from The Hague, it was only Mr Ruto whose
arrival was recorded by the media while the rest chose to return and
resume their lives quietly. The suspects were named by ICC chief
prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo on December 15, 2010, touching off calls
from civil society for those holding public office to step down.
Just hours after the names were released, President Kibaki rejected calls to have those in public office sacked.
“I wish to state that the people who have been
mentioned have not yet been fully investigated as the pre-trial process
in The Hague has only but begun. They therefore cannot be judged as
guilty until the charges are confirmed by the court,” the President said
in a terse dispatch from the Presidential Press Service to newsrooms.
The President said at the time that calls for
action against those named were “prejudicial, preemptive and against the
rules of natural justice”.
On that day, the President also announced that the
government was fully committed to establishing a local tribunal, plans
which have since been placed by the Cabinet in the cooler.
On the other hand, if the judges drop charges, it
will grant the six suspects a new lease of life in every sphere of their
operation. The most dramatic outcome is likely to be noticed in the
political careers of Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto, both of whom have said
they are running for the presidency at the elections, regardless of the
verdict on Monday. (READ: ICC: Mutula dismisses Uhuru, Ruto presidential bid)
On Saturday, the BBC published an interview with Mr Kenyatta in which he said he remains in the race for State House.
“I will not sit here and tell you that it has been
easy. It’s been very difficult. I have never believed that there was any
reason or justification for my name being put forward. But, as a
believer in the rule of law, we will ultimately be found innocent,” Mr
Kenyatta told the BBC.
The deputy PM said that the ICC process had not
affected his political ambitions “whatsoever” but that his family had
been affected. “It’s not easy for one’s children to hear that you have
been accused of international crimes and yet you know you are innocent
and they know what you are capable of and what you are not capable of,”
Mr Kenyatta said.
On Saturday, Mr Muthaura spoke about his
expectations and hopes. “I’m praying to God and I’m sure the court will
do justice,” he told journalists in Nairobi.
And, in a dramatic twist, Commission for the
Implementation of the Constitution chairman Charles Nyachae said that
there was nothing in Kenyan law that bars anyone from running for
elective office.
In a statement released to newsrooms, Mr Nyachae
said that his commission was of the view that Chapter Six of the
Constitution, which deals with leadership and integrity, cannot be
enforced before Parliament passes the necessary laws.
“In our view, therefore, there exists no legal bar
to any candidate, whether charged in Kenya or under international law,
to offer themselves for election.
“Furthermore, on the continued holding of public office, the only legal provisions that call for suspension of public officers charged with offences are in the Anti-Corruption and Economic Crimes Act which require a public officer to be suspended once they are charged with economic crimes. The proposed legislation under Article 80 will address this aspect too,” Mr Nyachae said.
“Furthermore, on the continued holding of public office, the only legal provisions that call for suspension of public officers charged with offences are in the Anti-Corruption and Economic Crimes Act which require a public officer to be suspended once they are charged with economic crimes. The proposed legislation under Article 80 will address this aspect too,” Mr Nyachae said.
In their view, those in office could continue holding office even if charges against them are confirmed.
According to a Catholic Church sponsored survey, a
majority of Kenyans think that politicians’ fear of the International
Criminal Court would lead to a peaceful General Election.
They also believe that the formation of a new
electoral body, reforms in the judiciary and police department as well
as the adverse effects of the post-election violence are other factors
that would see a quiet transition take place.
The nationwide research carried out by the Jesuit
Hakimani Centre found that 62 per cent of respondents believed the ICC
process would deter future violence.
However, 24.4 per cent fear that it could swing
either way while 13.5 per cent are worried that the elections would not
be peaceful, some attributing it to the fact that some of the
politicians in the run for various offices had not changed.
The research, conducted in November and December
2011, focused on certain thematic areas: good governance, economic
justice, media and political communications as well as religion and
politics.
Speaking at the opening of the two-day conference
on the Preparedness of Kenya Towards the 2012 General Election, where
the findings were released, Chairman of the Kenya Episcopal Conference,
Archbishop Zacchaeus Okoth, urged Kenyans to shun tribalism.
No comments:
Post a Comment