Sunday, January 8, 2012

ICC may change the balance of power in 2012



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By KARUTI KANYINGA
Posted  Saturday, January 7  2012 at  22:29
About two decades ago, a renowned Cambridge historian, Professor John Lonsdale, wrote:
“The politics of modern Kenya has always been an enigma. Looking at the same events and stories, actors and observers disagree violently on what they mean”.
The mysterious and puzzling nature of Kenya’s politics is evident in some of the major developments taking place today.
Kenyans have celebrated a new, progressive Constitution. They are celebrating the making of a new Judiciary staffed with officers appointed through “public hearings”.
Yet an old political culture is operating the new Constitution. There are continuous attempts to undermine this new beginning.
There is another mystery. Kenyans vote out about 65 per cent of MPs in every General Election. But the Parliament and political culture does not change.
Reason? There are about 10 per cent of MPs, about 20 in number, who are never voted out.
These 20 own politics, the economy and voters. They even decide who votes. They have won not less than four successive elections.
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Old in character and age, they seek to extend their political influence as far as they can from their own constituencies.
But the next General Election will be a major turning point in Kenya’s history. It will be held under a Constitution that has radically changed how political power is distributed and used.
It will also be held under an equally important platform: the International Criminal Court ruling on six Kenyans, including powerful and influential people, suspected to bear the greatest responsibility on crimes against humanity committed during the post-2007 election violence.
The Constitution and ICC are significant for the elections. One, the Constitution has not radically altered the “winner-takes-all” practice of power, which was at the heart of the post-2007 election violence.
The “first-past-the-post” and its characteristic feature of violence are very much in place. Fighting over control of the government will be as intense – if not more – as it has always been.
This competition will include mobilising numbers along tribal and, importantly, county lines. The ICC case will be used for or against to mobilise numbers to win.
Already, the ICC intervention has occasioned forging of regional and tribal alliances, complete with numbers required in a competitive election.
Scenario One: Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto are not in the race
First, if the charges against Mr Uhuru Kenyatta and Mr William Ruto are confirmed and the courts invoke article 10 and chapter six on integrity and leadership under the Constitution to bar them from contesting in the elections, then their absence will have an impact on the elections. Whether absent or present.
They represent vote-rich blocs. They have money and other resources to mobilise for any other candidate. Mr Kenyatta is in government; the government could assist him. Also the Kikuyu and Kalenjin will cry foul: their own leaders have been prevented from becoming president.
Those around the two leaders could look for surrogates from within the G7 or elsewhere to contest. And the search for any other person will be informed by a need to further the interests of these powerful individuals.
They would prefer those they can assist to win the election to assist in frustrating the ICC process and further their interests.
But will they win? Experience from other places where the ICC has intervened show that once a leader is indicted, those around the leader melt away very fast.
They run away because the leader suddenly becomes like a plague. Friends suddenly reduce in number. The leaders remain with family members and those keen to feed on their resources.
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Never before have leaders seen a political circumstance money and power cannot stop.
Scenario Two: Ethnic alliances fragment
The absence of Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto could fragment the ethnic or tribal voting blocs.
It could lead into emergence of someone who would win by having many communities voting for him or her simply because of organising around the identity of Kenya rather than a tribe.
The absence of Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto thus could de-ethnicise politics because it could mean the end of the tribal groupings that have been forming around their interests.
It is possible that these alliances will fragment as Kenyans look for leaders to deliver them a new country.
Scenario Three: Raila wins but the government is infiltrated
In the third scenario, the absence of Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto could lead to Prime Minister Raila Odinga winning the election with greater ease.
Some around Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto would give up and join the Prime Minister. These include groups of non-reformers whose main interest is to hold power.
This alone would betray the Constitution as non-reformers will not commit to its principles. They will not make the government “new”.
There will also be a lot of expectations accompanying this government. But the government will fail to deliver brave reforms particularly because of tensions between the coalition of reformers and a new group of anti-reformers who would join the government.
Scenario Four: The Luo and Kikuyu leadership close ranks
The fourth scenario builds on the experience of the eve of 1963 and 2002 General Elections and the 2010 referendum. The Kikuyu and Luo leadership closed ranks in these momentous events.
It is possible that the tribulations of ICC will invoke new thinking to create a “Kenya Can” scenario in which the Kikuyu and Luo leadership recognise that conquering the fear they have of each other has always determined the character of the transition and the stability of the country.
President Kibaki could choose to frame his legacy in “Kenyan” and “nationhood” terms. This will alienate tribal constituencies for the greater good. The action would lead to violence-free elections and a smooth transition.

The ICC ruling, whichever way it goes, will have a monumental impact on politics in Kenya. The first effect will be on the workings of the coalition government.
Kenyans could cross the path to a new dawn similar to the one in 2003. Given the reality of Kenyan politics, this is improbable. But Kenyan politics is also mysterious and puzzling.
The coalition is likely to be dysfunctional as new dynamics evolve to shape the political terrain.
And if the ICC theme triumphs, leaders keen to frustrate ICC efforts will emerge. They will make the Constitution an empty dream.
Professor Kanyinga is based at the Institute for Development Studies (IDS), University of Nairobi. Email: karuti@south.co.ke

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