Granted 2011 was a challenging year, then 2012 must clearly be a politically defining one

This week marks the end of 2011, a challenging year in our economic and social sphere. It is a week that will also usher in a new year, 2012, that could prove politically speaking a defining year in Kenya’s succession politics and quest for governance.

Yes, 2012 will be a defining moment not, only, on the political careers of the many political leaders seeking and hoping to succeed the now retiring President Mwai Kibaki but for Kenyans at large. Why?

Fierce political alliance-building has already emerged with many actors seeking to succeed Kibaki, others apparently motivated by only, one desire — to stop a Raila Odinga current Prime Minister’s, possible ascendency to the Presidency.

This follows national polarisation brought about by the 2007 muddled elections that led to a shared Government — Grand Coalition Government. The resultant post-election violence led to unseen disruption of social and economic order, killings and displacement of thousands of Kenyans.

COST OF LIVING

This matter remains unfinished business that has also seen six Kenyans face legal proceedings at the International Criminal Court (ICC) in 2011. The year also saw deterioration in the economic social order with rising cost of living exacerbated by accelerated depreciation in the value of the Kenya shilling against other international currencies such as the US Dollar, Euro and UK’s Sterling Pound.

This saw Central Bank of Kenya, the bank regulator and manager of monetary policy exhibit complete helplessness and hopelessness in the control of inflationary pressures and disruptive cost of living and resultant erosion in purchasing power and plumetting value of the Shilling.

What does 2012 portend?

First, let us consider the political dynamism arising from President Kibaki’s imminent end of his constitutionally imposed term limit that is now within 12 months.

Not even clairvoyance can help here. It is impossible to predict accurately how the presidential race will unfold.

One thing, however, is certain, it will a battle for votes hitherto unseen in our elections history.

The gravitation will be characterised by those seeking to support Raila’s quest for Presidency or to stop him. Raila has the advantage of visibility of incumbency and being one of the Principals in the current coalition government.

Then, comes Kalonzo Musyoka as Vice President who also enjoys visibility, but sotoo are the two Deputy Prime Ministers Uhuru Kenyatta (Minister for Finance) and Musalia Mudavadi (Minister for local Government) and championing devolution, a key governance plank under the new Constitution.

William Ruto, former minister and declared political opponent of Raila will also be a political actor of influence in any political alliance building regime.

Tribal factor

Second, Kenyan politics being influenced by dominant tribes would again see major tribes battle for political control of political power and resources among them the Kikuyu, Kalenjin, Luo, Luhya and Kamba. However, the influence of any one person on a community characteristic of past tribal influenced politics is likely to fade, as use of communities for personal capital may no longer be tenable.

Emerging evidence suggests that majority of Kenyans now yearn for a transformative leadership rather than politics of tribe in a hitherto business-as-usual culture.

Further, the young and restless Kenyan generations hold the key in the next election and if they so decide — without any tribal inclination — then Kenyans will be shocked that the elections will be determined in the first round.

Which way and Why?

The way of a transformative political regime is because the challenges facing the youth go beyond any tribal boundary. Increasingly, they have been sensitised on how politician use them during elections and immediately they become irrelevant until the next elections.

Political rhetoric and empty promises can’t work, won’t work. More candidates among them fresh Gatanga’s legislator and Planning Assistant Minister, Peter Kenneth, Former Justice Minister and independent Gichugu legislator Martha Karua, Mutava Musyimi the Gachoka MP and Paul Muite another independent minded former Kabete legislator and former opposition leader should bring new impetus to the presidential campaign.

Thirdly, the performance of the economy shall have a bearing in next year’s election and so would be the land policy — unemployment and poverty levels.

What other defining factors will decide the next election? Will the ICC’s looming verdict change the political landscape and how?

These are salient, yet raging matters of national debate. Will it be tackling, unemployment, poverty, and health, fighting corruption or putting transformative leadership in power and level of devolved resources and building of absorption capacity at county level become the defining matters?

Highest bidder

These remain guarded secrets and work-in-progress of political master strategists. Campaign issues must of necessity be emotive, and capable of rallying the population to a decisive level. Next year’s election must, not, be about auctioning of tribes in alliances to the highest bidder just to gain personal political capital by any politician without anything accruing to the people. Fortunately, the ultimate key rests with the people in this matter of compelling the public interest!

Best wishes for a happy and decisive 2012. And please take better control of national affairs!

The author is an opinion leader who prefers to remain anonymous.

Comments and suggestions to 
publicwatchdog@standardmedia.co.ke