Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Even if Uhuru and Ruto are knocked out by the ICC process, the race is still open



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By ONYANGO OLOO
Posted  Monday, January 16  2012 at  20:00
A few weeks ago, a leading political analyst and legal scholar while attempting to analyse the outcome of the forthcoming presidential elections arrived at one conclusion: that Uhuru’s and Ruto’s fate is sealed with the confirmation of charges against them at The Hague.
He said that even if the charges are not confirmed, the two have been so entangled with the proceedings at the ICC that Kenyans would simply find them unelectable.
To him; the 2012 battle will be between Kalonzo and Raila. I beg to differ.
Kenya’s presidential election has always tended to follow predictable patterns albeit with slight variations since 1992.
It is against these patterns and variations that any analysis must be juxtaposed.
The ICC process is a variant that had not been present in previous elections. However, upon parading Uhuru and Ruto at The Hague early last year, it became a factor.
The ratings of the two soared to levels they had not reached previously.
Both became heroes among their communities and were perceived as being persecuted to pave the way for a certain candidate to march to State House without serious opposition.
Over the years, Kenya has tended to vote on tribal lines, at least for those communities that have offered serious candidates.
The Kalenjins always voted for Moi with the exception of 2007 when Ruto directed them to Raila.
In 1992, the Luos, almost to a man voted for Jaramogi and for Raila in 1997 and 2007.
The Kikuyus split their votes only between Matiba and Kibaki in 1992, while Kibaki took them almost entirely in 1997.
In 2002, they split their votes between Uhuru and Kibaki and in 2007, they were fully behind Kibaki.
The Kisii in 2002 voted for Simeon Nyachae. On other occasions, they have always been generous with Kikuyu candidates.
The Gema community as a whole vote with their Kikuyu cousins.
The Luhya with the exception of the Bukusus have always split their votes among presidential candidates.
On the basis of Gema’s sheer numbers, it is most probable that a Gema candidate will be in the re-run, there being no outright winner.
With the fringe Gema candidates out of the ballot, it is not difficulty to envisage whom the Gema vote will turn to.
Secondly, the king-makers at this point are likely to be Ruto, Kalonzo and Eugene. Raila must get the three for him to be competitive against Uhuru.
Uhuru, on his part, will be way above with the support of only one of the three or just a sizeable fraction from two of the three communities.
Any keen observer of Kenya’s politics could as well guess who the three are likely to support should their names be missing in round two.
Related to the above is the fact that the other smaller communities are likely to weigh who is likely to win before making a decision. They are unlikely to back a candidate with minimal chance.
Besides, there are the historical voting patterns; the Kisii, and the coastal communities are likely to vote for Uhuru.
The Luhya, the Somalis and the Maasai will likely split their votes. That’s assuming they are not swayed by the euphoria of the candidate supported by Ruto, Kalonzo and Eugene, all sworn enemies of Raila.
There is also the generational battle that seems to be gaining momentum. Uhuru will be 50 at the time of the voting, Kalonzo slightly above 50, Ruto and Eugene in their 40s.
Raila on the other hand will be almost 70 years. It is very unlikely that the youth of this country will turn to vote for a man in his sunset years and leave younger robust candidates who identify with their aspirations.
This is the trend the world over, in Russia, USA, Britain, Rwanda, Congo, Tanzania and so on.
The presidents are becoming younger by the day. The wise old man of Africa is simply fading into oblivion.
Yes there will be a battle of the titans, but it will not be Kalonzo and Raila, it will be Uhuru versus Raila, with Ruto threatening to spoil the party for Raila.
Mr Oloo is an advocate of the High Court of Kenya (onyangoolooadv@yahoo.com)

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