How is Ruto gameplan shaping up?

Mr William Ruto's response to his fidgety and inquisitive supporters on what he projects he will reap from his second heavy investment in Uhuru Kenyatta Inc. was not surprising. What was surprising was how long it took him to confront the wave of frustration among his supporters, especially within his Kalenjin community, who fear his alliance with Uhuru is a political misadventure.
The questions asked about him and Uhuru have been growing: Will Ruto, in his fury with Mr Raila Odinga, for reasons not fully disclosed, help Kenya get the third President from central Kenya? Will Uhuru, with all his vast family wealth and connections, and advantage as apple of President Kibaki’s eye, accept to be Ruto’s running mate?

Given the nightmarish experiences of post-election violence, where the fiercest confrontation was between Kalenjin and Kikuyu, can an alliance built on these two ethnic blocs stand?
How will the rest of Kenyans react to a Kalenjin-Kikuyu alliance given both communities have produced three presidents? And what is it that Raila Odinga did to Ruto that has made Uhuru appear to him a political angel?

But would it not have been wiser for Ruto to fight Raila and Mudavadi in ODM than move out to the plains where he may be mauled by the ‘Kikuyu mafia’ who do not think much of him anyway, other than the hope he may deliver the Kalenjin vote? Still, would it not make more sense to go it alone, expecting to walk between others miraculously like Mr Kalonzo Musyoka in 2007?

And how would he, should he choose this route, overcome the new constitutional requirement a running mate cannot be replaced in the second round of elections if there is no clear winner, and to run on a particular party ticket, one must have been a member for at least six months?
Still, what if Raila, who is the object of Uhuru-Ruto alliance which boasts in its ranks the likes of Eugene Wamalwa, for a reason does not run, and Ruto and his team will have fled ODM?
What if in the end Raila becomes President?

Salivating hyena
Then the question of the day: What about that Luis Moreno-Ocampo matter, supposing he spoils next year’s party for Ruto and Uhuru, what options have they given their supporters? Kalonzo?
Privately, both are known to be wary of Kalonzo, who they think wants to take advantage of their situation, and also seemingly looks at himself as clean as wool compared to Ruto and Uhuru.
That is why Uhuru talked of a hyena following a man, salivating and waiting for his swinging hands to fall off, because in them he sees succulent pieces of meat!

But give it to Ruto, he is a calculative, brilliant politician, is loved by Kalenjin and, as he repeated this week, knows the game. What he means is that he will turn the tide his way, even though the Kikuyu believe as they said of Kalonzo, a small river can only join the big one (flowing from Mount Kenya!)

But what is baffling to many is whether Uhuru can support Ruto, and if he will reciprocate if Ruto gives them the Kalenjin back to walk on to State House next year.
That Ruto wanted his confidence message funnelled directly to his sceptical supporters in Rift Valley, who he wishes to cram inside the UDM vehicle, whose steering wheel a retired General has refused to part with, was discernible from the fact he chose Kass FM as his medium.
What could have been even more destabilising to Ruto was the fact among the options left for his supporters should things don’t work out, include going back to Raila! Those who may opt to go back to Tinga, assuming they had left him, may be many or few, but again, don’t they say in politics there are no permanent enemies.

Secondly, it was a taboo subject to question Ruto, but it appears the trickiness of the situation, the proximity of next year’s elections, the odds gathering on his political path, and the chance that Kenyans may not necessarily vote along tribal blocs, have conspired to make the community directly confront him on what his plans really are about.

His response, naturally, was what those aiming to go for the moon do; saying they are going to the sun because they know if they do not reach it, they will at least stop at the Moon, which is nearer and still this for a fact was their destination. You see in all this mix, barring constitutional impediments and appreciating Kenyans may not be too keen to elect another Kalenjin president, Ruto may actually be someone’s deputy president next year.

Hopping toad
But there are other factors at play, which may wipe this dream. Sadly, it appears the community renowned for courage has not been gallant and valiant enough to work on a Plan ‘B’, should Moreno-Ocampo have his way.

This is what has seen Kalenjin politicians walk to Ruto on their knees like Sally Kosgei, or chosen silence and hope to ride on Ruto’s wave in next year’s elections.
Others like Magerer Lagat have defied the act of putting one’s eggs in one basket, knowing they could have kissed Parliament bye.

This is because the community sees those who do what Kikuyus did in 1992 when they fought Moi from Mwai Kibaki and Kenneth Matiba fronts while others remained with him in Kanu just in case he proved to be a mugumo tree trunk and all they have is a razor blade, as betrayers!
But as Chinua Achebe said, only one thing makes the toad hop in broad daylight.
The writer is Managing Editor, Daily Editions, at The Standard.
ktanui@standardmedia.co.ke