Why Martha Karua looks attractive for 2012

By MAKAU MUTUA
Posted  Saturday, March 26 2011 at 17:06

In Summary

• In my book, she is one of three top presidential candidates, the others being PM Raila and VP Kalonzo

I have always had a soft spot for Gichugu MP Martha Karua. It doesn’t matter that I occasionally disagree with her. There is something deeply attractive about her as a person and politician.

As a feminist, I admire strong women who break down the patriarchy. It’s a fact that in Kikuyu culture – and in Kenya – oppressive hetero-patriarchy and misogyny are deeply entrenched.

But no society is static. That’s why Ms Karua is polling well among the Kikuyu and the nation at large.

In my book, Ms Karua is one of three top presidential candidates – the others are PM Raila Odinga and VP Kalonzo Musyoka. Finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto are out.

Don’t ask me why Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto are “finished”. Let’s stop kidding ourselves. I would advise their supporters to accept reality and move on.

Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto – two of the Ocampo Six – are “out for the count”. ICC prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo has dealt them a mortal blow. This is fact, not fiction.

As a jurist, I have no doubt that the ICC Pre-Trial Chamber will confirm the charges for crimes against humanity against them. These trials typically last forever.

If you doubt me, look at former Liberian strongman Charles Taylor’s trial. Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto are unlikely to be there for 2012. This makes Ms Karua more attractive and swings the door wide open for her.

No one doubts that Kenyans will largely vote in ethnic blocs in 2012. This is totally undesirable, but it’s reality – for now. With Mr Kenyatta out of the way, Ms Karua will command a large bloc of the Kikuyu vote.

Actually, I think she would do very well among the Kikuyu, even with Mr Kenyatta as a candidate. This is why. Mr Kenyatta is the candidate of the moneyed Kikuyu elite. Ms Karua is the darling of the hoi polloi.

This is a historical chasm in Kikuyu society. The late JM Kariuki spoke to the aspirations of the downtrodden. So does Ms Karua. The late Mzee Jomo Kenyatta chose the rich over the poor and the Mau Mau.

Among the Kikuyu, Ms Karua has inherited JM Kariuki’s mantle. In contrast, Mr Kenyatta is truly his father’s son – he’s the “project” of the country club elite. Ms Karua has grown as a reformer.

She’s one of only a small handful of consistently progressive MPs. She was a champion of human and women’s rights before going to Parliament.

While there, she distinguished herself as Kanu’s Public Enemy Number One. It is said that former President Daniel arap Moi would shake in rage whenever her name was mentioned.

Dark moments

I don’t deny that she had dark moments under Narc when she ardently defended President Mwai Kibaki. She did so again – ferociously and with steel – in the 2007 contested election.

But then she “saw the light” and returned to her progressive roots. She resigned her Cabinet post and turned her guns on PNU. Today, she is an eloquent champion of human rights, democracy, and the rights of the poor.

No politician attacks corruption and impunity with more vigour. She has eschewed tribal alliances like the PNU/KKK which brings together Mr Musyoka, Mr Kenyatta, and Mr Ruto.

This begs the question – can she get enough votes outside the Mt Kenya region? I think so. This is especially true if she appeals to women and to people and communities that have been marginalised. She cannot run as a Kikuyu, but as a woman and the candidate of “the people”.

However, Ms Karua must still contend with the “Kalonzo Factor” in the Mt Kenya region. In Mr Kenyatta’s absence, the Kikuyu elite could very well turn to Mr Musyoka. They would do so out of disdain for Ms Karua. Ethnically, Mr Musyoka is a Kamba and probably a “close enough cousin” to be trusted by the Kikuyu elite.

Mr Musyoka could then remind Mr Ruto’s supporters in the Rift Valley that he tried – in vain – to save their son from The Hague. In this scenario, Mr Musyoka would be the PNU/KKK candidate.

There is a chance that he could garner large baskets of votes among the Kalenjin, Kikuyu and Kamba communities. This is Ms Karua’s nightmare scenario.

But assuming Mr Musyoka is not a threat, Ms Karua would still have to contend with the formidable Mr Odinga. The man is a political juggernaut. Opponents underestimate him at their own peril. Those who parody his “football metaphors” may be digging their own graves.

Mr Odinga connects with the hoi polloi and the youth – in every region of the country. He is the most electrifying politician in Kenya.
Presidential candidates

In my view, Mr Odinga and Ms Karua are the only two presidential candidates with the potential to transform the Kenyan state.

He is more populist and a better polemicist than Ms Karua. But she is as tough as nails. In a head-to-head matchup, it’s anyone’s guess what would happen.

There is a tantalising possibility that we can’t afford to ignore. If Mr Musyoka were the PNU/KKK candidate, would Ms Karua and Mr Odinga come together? This ticket, which is not far-fetched, would be very difficult to beat.

The only question would be the order of the ticket – who would be on top? I doubt Ms Karua would want to be on the bottom. But I can’t think of Mr Odinga being the subordinate either.

Does this mean a Karua/Odinga or Odinga/Karua ticket is dead? No – anything is possible with the right incentives.

Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.