Leaked US secrets: Puzzle of Raila call

By Lucianne Limo
As governments around the world remained stunned by leaked US diplomatic cables, some depicting them in unsavoury light, a late night call was placed from Washington to Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
The implication was that there could be worse to come from leaked secret communication from the American Embassy, after US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Johnny Carson, called the Prime Minister to apologise in advance.
The purpose appears to have been to prepare Nairobi for possible shock, should more memos on the leadership of the country be released, and to limit the damage they could do to US-Kenya relations.
On Wednesday, US Embassy spokesman John Haynes said senior State Department officials called Government officials to inform them and discuss their concerns. He did not elaborate.
But what was even more interesting was the rush by Government Spokesman Alfred Mutua to put a spin on the matter, even without full knowledge of what the remaining secret documents contain.
His speculative action unveiled a deep unease in Government over the leakages, and the situation rapidly descended into the comical as Dr Mutua opted to interpret the meaning of the late Monday night call to PM Raila for journalists at a press conference.
Wikileaks, an Internet-based organisation devoted to leaking US Government secrets, leaked the secret cables from US embassies all over the world. The words used in the cables are brutally raw and candid in their assessment of world governments and leaders by American envoys.
Those leaked so far have revealed truths that some governments would prefer buried, like Saudi Arabia’s push for the US to attack Iran’s nuclear sites.
More than 1,000 cables sent from the US Embassy in Nairobi, which are part of 2,500 that Wikileaks is leaking, have not been posted on the site yet, but are expected to reveal what the American envoys think of the Government.
But what surprised many was the speed with which Mutua jumped into the storm, and ‘revealed’ news of Carson’s call on Tuesday, claiming the apology was not about corruption claims made by US envoys.
Corruption claimsThe PM’s office confirmed that Carson, who was once a US ambassador in Nairobi, made the call on Monday night and offered an "apology in advance" on behalf of the Obama Government.
"The PM received the apology from Carson who told him of the anticipated leakages and apologised in advance," said the PM’s spokesman Denis Onyango.

US President Barack Obama. More than 1,000 cables sent from the US Embassy in Nairobi, which are part of 2,500 that Wikileaks is leaking, have not been posted on the site yet, but are expected to reveal what the American envoys think of the Government.

But while the two officials admitted Carson did not say why he was apologising, Mutua went on to claim that the US had previously made corruption claims against Kenyan leaders, and that the call to Raila had nothing to do with official sleaze.
Other sources intimated to The Standard that sections of the Government were apprehensive of the fact that the call was made to the PM Raila and not President Kibaki, and that this could explain Mutua’s spin on the unfolding events.
"Carson cannot call the PM over corruption claims. There is more to that call than meets the eye," said Mutua.
"They have been calling us corrupt for so long, and its true we are, but the apology by the US is not about corruption," Mutua said, on Tuesday.
Sources intimated to The Standard that the leaked cables could reveal more damaging information about the State and extent of grand corruption in the Government, and matters touching on security as viewed by the US Embassy.
Without explaining which country he was referring to, Mutua, speaking to journalists at a press conference in his KICC office on Tuesday, claimed there were foreign powers trying to create despondency against the Government using the youth.
He alleged foreign powers had been "funding youths to a tune of more than Sh1.6 billion" to oppose the State.
"The Government is concerned with foreign attempts to create despondency against the Government and the country in the guise of youth empowerment," he added.
Even though Mutua did not say which foreign power he was referring to, he left little doubt that the US was his target.
Foreign powersHowever, analysts hinted that Mutua could have been trying to put a spin on the matter; to lessen the impact of any damaging information on the country’s leadership that could be contained in the yet-to-be released cables.
US ambassador Michael Ranneberger has been involved in a programme sponsored by his Government, in which the Embassy directly deals with the youth.
Even as the Government spokesman was making his claims, US Undersecretary of State for Democracy and Global Affairs Maria Otero, and Ranneberger, were meeting representatives of the National Youth Forum (NYF) for a "roundtable on youth, reform and economic opportunities".
The NYF, which consists of over 60 organisations, were supposed to brief the undersecretary and the envoy on their recent activities related to implementation of the new Constitution and related reforms.
"A $47 million "Yes Youth Can!" initiative empowers youth to achieve a greater voice in national reform and create new employment opportunities," said the statement.
Yesterday, it was clear that the Government was stunned by Carson’s apology, yet they had no idea what other explosive information could be contained in the cables.
"The US Government indicated they are very sorry for the content in the leaked documents. They, however, have not told us what the document says, and what they are sorry for," said Mutua yesterday at Kenyatta International Conference Centre.
The cables depict Kenya as a swamp of flourishing corruption.
The Economic Times says remarks about Kenya’s leadership were contemptuous, while Germany’s Der Spiegel said, "Almost every single sentence in the embassy reports speaks with disdain of the Government of President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga."
Cables from capitals like Harare compare scenarios of coups and even "quick deaths" of leaders.
For example, in a memo by the former US ambassador to Zimbabwe Christopher Dell, "Mugabe’s sudden, unexpected death would set off a stampede for power among Zanu-PF heavyweights; a palace coup, whether initiated within Zanu-PF or from the military - in which Mugabe is removed, killed, exiled or otherwise disposed of, could well devolve into open conflict between the contending successors.
Similarly, some form of "constitutional coup" i.e., a change at the top engineered within the framework of Zanu-PF’s ‘legitimate’ structures could well prove to be merely the opening bell in a prolonged power struggle.
Dell describes Mugabe as a clever tactician who is always ahead of the game.
"To give the devil his due, he is a brilliant tactician and has long thrived on his ability to abruptly change the rules of the game, radicalise the political dynamic and force everyone else to react to his agenda.
Turning to Morgan Tsvangarai, the PM of Zimbabwe’s coalition government, Dell describes him as a flawed figure, not readily open to advice, indecisive and with questionable judgement in selecting those around him.
The envoy says Tsvangirai is an indispensable element for opposition success in Zimbabwe, but possibly an albatross around their necks once in power.
"In short, he is a kind of Lech Walesa character: Zimbabwe needs him, but should not rely on his executive abilities to lead the country’s recovery," said Dell.
It is believed that the envoys in Nairobi could have made similar assessments of Kenyan leaders.