Raila will remain axle of political wheel

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KIPKOECH TANUI
Tonight we jump over to 2011, the penultimate year to 2012 when history will hand us the burden of picking our Fourth President.
Like you, I am also wondering who shall take over from President Kibaki. But because of a set of factors, and given the transient and volatile nature of politics and the predictable disorder of alliance building, it may be too early to gauge whom it may be.
There is of course the inconvenience Mr Luis Moreno-Ocampo has caused to two leaders aspiring to put on Mr Kibaki’s shoes: Mr Uhuru Kenyatta, the driver of the old vehicle Kibaki and his father Mzee Jomo Kenyatta first rode on into politics.
The other is Eldoret North MP William Samoei Ruto, who is also on Ocampo’s list, and feeds perception he is in the race primarily to teach his friend-turned-foe, Mr Raila Odinga, a lesson.
He also needs to avoid looking like his will be a ‘grudge Presidency’, first against the Kibaki system, which has ‘loaded’ him with many court cases, and primarily, the Raila political machine, which he seems to fear, could have consigned him to obscurity in ODM.
In all likelihood his 2012 rally car will be Registration No. UDM from where he will be the only bull in the kraal.
Word has it Uhuru got his name from Kibaki and even though the younger man ran against his father’s friend in 2002 and lost, in 2007, he was wide-eyed enough to realise his vehicle was too old and rickety to finish the race, and so, he switched over to the bandwagon with a new engine called Party of National Unity.
By walking the Independence party into the ruling coalition, in itself is an act of political incest, because Leaders of Official Opposition have a sacred duty of keeping the incumbent on his toes, Uhuru was rewarded handsomely after the elections, ending up in Cabinet with additional feather of Deputy Prime Minister.
Uhuru and Ruto represent the confluence of four common denominators. First, they are Ocampo’s ‘clients’ and could end up with indictments or emerge political martyrs. Second, despite a history of pushing for older politicians, today they represent the face of a ‘youth revolution’.
Queen’s English
On the crest of age they plan to land at State House. It is left to the imagination who would subordinate his ambitions and political interest to the other.
Thirdly, they are confident they have a command of their populous ethnic groups, which incidentally have been political rivals for ages.
Finally, they see Raila as a rival to crush with the shoe heel.
Uhuru was first to jump over the Orange fence into the PNU belly in 2007, and Ruto is merely in it as a technicality, not to lose his parliamentary seat and to get ODM’s share of Cabinet portfolios if and when his suspension is lifted. I do not know about Uhuru, but Ruto and his team believe Raila had a hand in crafting the Ocampo List.
There is also another lurking in their shadows — Saboti MP Eugene Wamalwa. Apart from tender age (40-plus!) the other only card he seems to carry is his bloodline with former VP Wamalwa Kijana.
He, too, has a ‘grudge’ against Raila, who he sees as having frustrated the MoU between Kijana and Kibaki that would have seen the rotund commander of Queen’s English take over after 2002.
He looks like he is in politics, not just to claim his late brother’s shoe in Parliament, but also to continue the wars Kijana was fighting. In his skewed thinking, he believes Kibaki should actually hand over State House to him tomorrow because of who he is.
The other notable in the race is former Justice Minister Martha Karua, who probably as a PNU insider in 2007 knows a thing or two about how Kibaki stuffed the Electoral Commission with his political altar boys and flower girls to snatch a second term, and has decided to go for the prize herself.
She radiates the picture of an apprentice at a shop, who having understudied the dukawallah, grumbles about poor pay and working conditions, and moves across the street to open her own business.
The problem, however, is Karua was not quite kind in word to customers when she was at the dukawallah’s shop and they see her as haughty and arrogant.
She also has two known political enemies — Ruto and Raila. She probably is in the race for among other reasons to block them from ever ruling her.
What if?
There is also Mr Kalonzo Musyoka who when Raila gets an inch, believes he is entitled to two, because he is the saint of Kenya’s politics and innocent lamb circled by many political hyenas. Disregarding the conspiracy and opportunism that handed him Vice Presidency, he seemingly could toast to the high heavens, not so much if he wins, but if Raila loses!
Then finally, there is Raila, out to claim what he believes Kibaki cunningly and thievishly yanked from his mouth just when the party was about to start.
In 2012 just like in 2002 and 2007 he is going to be the axle on which Kenya’s rickety and noisy political wheel will keep turning. What is baffling is what object of hate and love shall Kenya be left with if he chooses not to or is unable to run in 2012.
I left out Prof George Saitoti because he does not look like he has convinced himself he can run, and Mr Musalia Mudavadi who first needs to consult Raila.
Regardless of who takes the cake, Happy New Year to all my readers.
The writer is the Managing Editor, Daily Editions, at The Standard. The opinions expressed here are not necessarily those of The Standard.
ktanui@standardmedia.co.ke