Kalonzo’s game plan could scuttle PNU

By GAKUU MATHENGE
As President Kibaki succession politics gain momentum, Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka is determined to be the PNU flag bearer.
Kalonzo is sending clear signals as President Kibaki’s PNU seeks a presidential candidate for the 2012 General Election.
As Kibaki’s number two and credited with salvaging the President’s second term by entering into an alliance in 2008, Kalonzo expects his PNU allies and Kibaki supporters to return the favour.
However, recent pronouncements from some central Kenya leaders casting doubts on the VP’s expectations, and other leaders publicly endorsing Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, have sent mixed signals to Kalonzo and his allies.
The Kalonzo and Central Province factor has polarised the Party of National Unity. Kalonzo and Uhuru allies have failed to agree on who to support as the 2012 flag bearer.
Those in favour of consensus think a straight fight for delegates usually ends in an acrimonious and destructive falling out, while those pushing for a contest at Kasarani, feel it the best way to pick the candidate to face Orange Democratic Movement’s and Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
Their credentials
What becomes of PNU alliance among its top guns Kalonzo, Uhuru, and Internal Security Minister George Saitoti remains the most watched developments, due to its potential to alter the political landscape.
Last weekend, Prof Saitoti resisted intense pressure from delegates at party governing council meeting in Nairobi to declare if he was a presidential aspirant.
Kalonzo was a frontrunner in the lead-up to the 2007 General Election, but things took a dramatic twist when Raila also declared his candidature.
The broke up of the original Orange family into ODM and ODM-Kenya.And if it comes to credentials, Uhuru, too, has been a presidential candidate before (2002), while Saitoti could argue he is the oldest in the PNU pack and has been VP for 12 years (1989-2002).
But with Uhuru being a Kikuyu and Saitoti strongly linked to Central, politics of another son or daughter from the ‘House of Mumbi’ succeeding Kibaki will emerge.
Signs that Kalonzo is re-branding from a frontrunner to a flag bearer have been consistent but subtle, with delegations trooping to his Yatta farm to endorse him.
The battle to become the leading ‘K’ in the Triple ‘K’ fraternity of Kikuyu, Kamba and Kalenjin has put PNU allies in a quandary. Pundits claim the Kalonzo endorsements are aimed at shooting down plans to hold joint primaries among Kalonzo, Uhuru and Saitoti.
"Kalonzo is not being endorsed so he can go and endorse someone else at Kasarani. These are intended to send a message of what his supporters expect, that he is their candidate. He has acknowledged the goodwill delegations and he cannot just wake up one morning and decide he will support someone else without their consent," says Rift Valley ODM-Kenya co-ordinator Sammy Seroney. The VP has received several delegations, including seven MPs from Meru, who do not always play in the mainstream PNU orbit and Kikuyu businessmen from Nakuru among others.
Veiled attacks
Uhuru hosted 600 councillors at his father’s Gatundu home at Ichaweri last week, at which plans to hold joint primaries to pick a 2012 flag bearer, were discussed.
But Seroney says even if Kalonzo were to go to Kasarani, "he should go to write an MoU about possible power sharing, not to compete with Uhuru and Saitoti who should be endorsing him."
Kalonzo’s camp has been compelled to revise its strategies since the referendum when Uhuru allies mocked ODM-Kenya as a party without much to show after the low voter turn out in Kalonzo’s Eastern Province.
Uhuru allies, including Ndaragwa MP Jeremiah Kioni, publicly dismissed Kalonzo’s ODM-Kenya as an empty basket.
Such veiled attacks on the VP have convinced his supporters he needs a plan B. "It would be a good thing for national healing and reduction of tensions if central Kenya supported Kalonzo. Otherwise the region will only look selfish and ungrateful," says ODM-Kenya Executive Council member Jennifer Masis.
But Kalonzo political aide and acting PNU Chief Whip Johnstone Muthama insists the PNU fraternity, ODM-Kenya included, is committed to joint primaries in Kasarani. "Our strategy is to find the best candidate to face Raila and the plot is to hold a fair nomination," he said.
But Kinangop MP and convenor of small parties’ caucus in PNU, David Ngugi cautions resolving disagreements of flag bearers at Kasarani will result in acrimonious falling out.
"People need to decide what they want beyond personal ambitions. Anything that can fragment PNU should be avoided," Ngugi said.
PNU Secretary General Kiraitu Murungi acknowledges anxieties and mutual suspicions, but remains optimistic the leaders will find a common ground.