Sunday, December 19, 2010

Jolted political careers

By ALEX NDEGWA
Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Eldoret North MP William Ruto, and the Minister for Industrialisation, Henry Kosgey, are facing the greatest threat to their political careers.
ICC Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo, by naming them among the six suspected masterminds of post-election violence, could spoil the party especially for Uhuru and Ruto who have presidential ambitions.
Uhuru and Ruto, after parting ways in 2007, have reunited with the possibility of an alliance in 2012 that would include Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka.
But, by a twist of fate, they find themselves fighting to shake of the ICC accusations before they can salvage their political careers.
Moreno-Ocampo has indicated the cases against the six, should the judges confirm the charges, would begin in 2012, the General Election year.
Should any of the leaders be on trial at The Hague then, their eligibility to run for public office would be nil.
The principle that suspects are innocent until proved guilty by a court of law holds, but it would be difficult to pass the high threshold of integrity the Constitution requires of public officials.
There is the contested conclusion that public perception of the six, regardless of the outcome of the ICC process, has taken a beating.
The latest opinion survey by Infotrak indicates the public standing of the leaders has taken a nosedive in the few days after the ICC named them adversely.
Going by the smear campaigns common during elections, the possibility of rivals using their implication in the post-election violence, as fodder to bring them down is real.
Constitutional referendumUhuru and Ruto have nostalgic connections having been in the same camp during 2002 General Election, when the Gatundu South MP ran for president on a Kanu ticket. Narc candidate, Mwai Kibaki, defeated Uhuru, then fronted by retired President Moi.
Ruto and Uhuru were in the Orange group, which handed President Kibaki defeat at the 2005 constitutional referendum. But in the run-up to the 2007 elections, Uhuru, then the leader of official opposition, backed President Kibaki’s re-election, parting ways with Ruto. Ruto supported ODM candidate, Raila Odinga, for President.
Ironically, it is their resolve to defend their causes in the disputed December 27, 2007 presidential vote that now threatens to end their illustrious careers.
Political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi observes the naming of Uhuru and Ruto in Moreno-Ocampo’s list puts them in an awkward position. He says, "They have to work very hard to remain in the race."
Ngunyi suggests it is better for them to go to The Hague to plead their cases be expedited in the hope they would be freed. But things could get worse if the charges are confirmed.
"If they get charged by the ICC they would not be eligible to run for the president because the chapter on leadership and integrity, which was used to kick Ruto out of the Cabinet, would catch up with them," Ngunyi says.
But Uhuru’s allies have cautioned against writing the Kanu chairman’s political epitaph just yet, citing his father’s exploits.
Advocate and political analyst Paul Mwangi believes the situation has not got out of hand yet. "Legally and constitutionally, their being linked to the violence has no impact because they are free to even run for president. The presumption is that you are innocent until proved guilty," says Mwangi.
He, however, adds the ICC attention is a double-edged sword. "It could work both ways. They will have sympathy votes and might galvanise their communities in the belief they had been framed. But on the other hand, their detractors could use their implication in the violence as fodder against them," says Mwangi.
Mutahi suggests three options are still available to evade The Hague. President Kibaki could decide to charge them locally for the same offences so that the principle of universal reciprocity that stops one from being charged for the same crimes in another jurisdiction applies.
The President could also opt to widen the net to charge all the 20 suspects in the Waki envelope locally, to take the heat off Ruto and Uhuru. Finally, the Government could petition for the International Criminal Tribunal for Kenya with the intention of bringing The Hague closer home which is "politer and kinder".
The Uhuru camp has chosen to interpret his predicament as the uncanny testimony of history repeating itself. They draw a parallel between Uhuru’s dilemma and the tribulations his father and founding father of the nation, Mzee Jomo Kenyatta, underwent under colonialism.
They say that just as Kenyatta was jailed and later came out to found the nation, his son, who was born in 1961 two years before independence, would eventually come out stronger. Time will tell. But Kenyatta was jailed for fighting for independence, which is different from ICC’s allegations of criminal liability around Uhuru.
Ruto, who shot to the limelight through the YK ’92 lobby group in 1991, has blamed his tribulations on political rivals.
Ruto, 44, has rallied the Kalenjin areas of the Rift Valley firmly behind him. He maintains he will overcome the latest hurdle, and use it as a steppingstone to presidential power.
He has positioned himself as the champion of the interests of the Kalenjin to the envy of older politicians in the region.
Mau evictionsThough Raila is seen as the biggest beneficiary of the ICC action that targets his key opponents, his march to State House, too, could take a backlash.
Kosgey is Raila’s top link in the Rift Valley where the PM is bracing for a backlash following claims of betrayal of a region that voted for him in the 2007 presidential election.
Kosgey, who has represented Tinderet constituency in Parliament for the last 21 years, has been in Cabinet for most of the period serving under former President Moi and now Kibaki.
Raila had fallen out with Ruto, his deputy, over sharing of coalition Cabinet slots, and Mau forest evictions. The development at the ICC has put their relationship beyond redemption.
Kosgey, 66, would have helped ODM, which he chairs, to reorganise its grassroots network after the exit of Ruto and MPs from the region aligned to him.
Although President Kibaki said he would not be stripping them of their positions since the ICC judges have not interrogated the claims against the six, the calls for those holding Government positions to step aside are likely to mount.
However, it is clear that should the ICC confirm the charges against any of the suspects holding public office that would be the end of the road.

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