Sunday, June 13, 2010

EGG ON THE FACE

Last Sunday at Etago Catholic Church, ODM parliamentary nomination loser, Zebedeo Nyaboga, ‘prophetically’ stunned the congregation, when he told Prime Minister Raila Odinga that the party would lose in the by-election because it executed a flawed nomination.

Then, Nyaboga appeared villain and was even heckled by the congregation but his message came to pass on Thursday when Ford-People’s Manson Nyamweya clinched the South Mugirango seat.

This is not the first time for ODM to falter in nomination. It was sweet revenge for Nyamweya, who in 2007 expressed desire to run on an ODM ticket but lost out after the party gave its then national treasurer, Omingo Magara, direct nomination.

Nyamweya romped home decisively with a commanding lead of 14,099 voters. PDP’s Magara came second with 8,885 votes ahead of ODM’s Ibrahim Ochoi who polled 7,638.

For ODM, and the PM in particular, it was a wake-up call as they have to go back to the drawing board to remain relevant in the 2012 General Election.

Similarly, it is a clear testimony that ministers Chris Obure, James Orengo and Anyang’ Nyong’o, who are the PM’s point men in Nyanza Province failed to deliver.

The PM would have been in an even more awkward situation had Magara won the by-election.

Magara was primarily a candidate of the anti-Raila forces out to settle a political score.

But for Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Higher Education Minister William Ruto, the defeat of Magara — whom they saw as probable point man in Nyanza Province — is a setback.

Shattered dream

If anything, it derailed the game plan of the so-called ‘Triple K’ group and shattered the dream they had hyped through election of Magara to unleash onslaught on the PM, who has steadily enjoyed rising popularity in recent opinion polls.

For Kalonzo-Uhuru-Ruto trio, Magara’s defeat is telling and the division among PNU affiliates as was witnessed in the just concluded by-election could be its pitfall in the race for 2012 General Election.

"With President Kibaki out of the race for presidency in 2012, the inconsistencies, suspicions and differences in the outfit as was witnessed in the by-election would be its waterloo. It was a test run. Ruto, Uhuru and Kalonzo will have to work overdrive," says political analyst and social science lecturer at Moi University, Otieno Jowi.

Most importantly, the by-election also showed the deep-seated suspicion and differences among the communities that were affected by the post-election violence.

The biggest winner, though, is Ford-People and by extension the Abagusii community. That the party snubbed the ODM and PNU bigwigs to elect Nyamweya shows the electorate have embraced regional parties.

"This is a good start for us. We shall unite the Gusii community under Ford-People as we did in 2002," said the party director of elections James Kenani.

Ford-People Secretary General, Henry Obwocha, said by voting in Nyamweya, locals were sending a clear message they had realised how important it is to have a homegrown party to steer community interests.

Ford-People, a party that mastered a rare fete by marshalling all the ten Gusii parliamentary seats to the Ninth Parliament in 2002, suffered a major political setback after nine of its MPs were shown the door in the last General Election.

Apart from lobbying for creation of new administrative units, Ford-People is credited with having negotiated for appointment of members of the Abagusii community to prime Government jobs, most of who lost the posts in the Coalition arrangement.

No comments:

Post a Comment