Kanu Regrouping

The battle for political supremacy between Raila Odinga and William Ruto has all but started. Amid bitter exchanges between the pair, and an apparent planned vote of no confidence in the PM, lies the political conundrum: Who will win the battle?

Talk of a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Raila Odinga has recently been mooted as pro-Ruto MPs seek to fell the PM in a contest billed to be one of the most challenging bouts.

After apparently accusing Raila of poor leadership, Ruto insists there must be change.

"There is no going back … we have to bring change to this country," said Ruto, in a meeting in Kaloleni on Saturday. Ruto vowed to mobilise the youth to ensure old politicians were locked out of leadership come 2012.


Even though the movers of the no-confidence vote scheme are confessed critics of the PM mainly from Rift Valley Province, they have received backing from other provinces, notably Central and Eastern.

Indeed, two developments clearly point to this fact – a claim by a Cabinet minister that some MPs have received large sums of money from unnamed sources to bribe their colleagues to pass the Motion, and a press briefing early this week by legislators Zakayo Cheruiyot (Kuresoi) and Joshua Kutuny (Cherangany) at Parliament Buildings, where they confirmed they would censure the PM over the Mau resettlement saga.

The MPs were angered by the Government’s decision to remove illegal settlers from the forest without compensation. On Saturday, Ruto insisted again that the Government was mishandling the eviction.

Conceding that the censure Motion has indeed been hatched, one MP, however, dismissed the claims that they had received money to execute the plot.

"Our agenda is driven by a moral obligation to assist Kenyans being punished and treated as if they are not human beings," said the MP from the South Rift.

On Wednesday evening, 56 MPs met at Panafric Hotel in Nairobi and collected over Sh5 million for the evicted Mau settlers. During the meeting convened by Ruto, and attended by the MPs and Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, Energy Minister Kiraitu Murungi, Franklin Bett (Roads), Najib Balala (Tourism), Mutula Kilonzo (Justice), Naomi Shaban (Special Programmes), Mohamed Elmi (Development of Northern Kenya), and Mohamed Kuti (Livestock), many hit out at Raila for apparently lacking leadership qualities and for being despotic and dishonest.

On his part, Raila on Friday said the claims would not shake his political resolve to clean the Mau of illegal human settlements.

He also said his critics will soon be swept away into political oblivion for their obsession with personal interests.

At the Wednesday fundraiser, MPs poured scorn on Raila, accusing him of being inhuman and insensitive to human suffering.

But Raila supporters believe there is a hidden hand behind the relentless onslaught directed at the PM. ODM Secretary General Anyang’ Nyong’o asked MPs planning to sponsor a censure Motion on the Prime Minister to "bring it on".

Prof Nyong’o, who is the Medical Service Minister, termed the recalcitrant politicians privileged individuals without credentials for struggle and democracy.

"To them the PM is their symbol of anger and would do anything to vilify him. They are doomed to fail," said Nyong’o in a telephone interview.

Another Raila supporter who did not want to be named acknowledged hearing of the planned sanction on the PM, but vowed it would not succeed.

According to The National Accord and Reconciliation Act 2008, 112 votes are required to remove the PM from office through a vote of no confidence.

Analysts have, however, argued that it would be difficult to remove the PM because he was a signatory to the accord. They say Raila’s departure would end the Accord and by extension that of the Grand Coalition Government, necessitating another General Election.

"The execution of the Accord is solely pegged on two individuals (Kibaki and Raila) who signed it on behalf of two parties [PNU and ODM]. I fear that if anything were to happen to the two principals, poor health or otherwise, the life of the Tenth Parliament could end," observes Justin Muturi, Kanu Organising Secretary, a PNU affiliate.

Muturi, a lawyer, regrets that the Accord was negotiated and imported into the Constitution hurriedly despite the many loopholes.

Unlike most legislation including the Harmonised Draft Constitution under discussion, for instance, the Accord makes no provision for the replacement of holders of the offices of President and Prime Minister.

"Talk on vote of no confidence in PM is a very dicey matter that MPs must tread carefully because it could mean declaring themselves jobless," warns the former Siakago MP.

Miguna Miguna, a joint secretary of the Coalition Management Team, said only two people signed the Accord. The moment one gets out of the picture, the Tenth Parliament will come to an end. "If what they [PM’s opponents] want is fresh elections then we are ready for it," said Mr Miguna, who doubles up as the PM’s advisor on coalition matters. He argued that even if Parliament succeeds to pass a vote of no confidence in the PM, it would be difficult to replace him.

The Accord specifies that a PM will be leader of party with parliamentary majority, and Miguna argues that even if MPs expresses displeasure with Raila, they cannot impose another party leader on ODM. And even if one wants to stage an internal coup, Miguna says, it will be done within parameters of the ODM constitution.

"The party’s NEC will not sit to reverse Raila’s position as party leader because his term has not ended. Whether they like it, they will be stuck with this reality," charges Miguna.

But ODM MPs opposed to Raila argue that Raila signed the Accord on behalf of the party, and they can therefore pick another leader to occupy the office.

Raila’s allies in Rift Valley led by Kipkelion MP Magerer Langat have criticised those behind the censure Motion threats.

"The Mau tragedy is not an accident but it has been turned into a battlefield and anticipated mine for votes by the forces eyeing 2012 and those promoting tribal alliances," said Langat.

He said the censure threats against Raila by his critics had no objective and would be defeated if it ever makes its way to the House.

Questions have also been asked if it was a coincidence that almost all 56 MPs and 10 ministers who attended a funds drive convened by Agriculture Minister William Ruto were from Eastern, North Eastern, Rift Valley, and Central provinces. No single MP from the larger Nyanza Province attended the harambee. Neither were they invited.

It was clearly evident from the body language of the MPs present that they have formed a new political alliance and some speakers indeed said as much.

"Today I want Rift Valley Province to look at the people who are here and know that these are your true friends," said Mutomo MP Kiema Kilonzo.

Looked at differently, it can be argued that the group has brought together a fairly large team of leaders from four of the country’s eight provinces.

Energy Minister Kiraitu Murungi and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka’s supporters either made an inference or directly welcomed the new political alliance.

"We value your friendship and I have seen that you stand with us," said Ruto, as he welcomed Murungi to speak at the function. The Energy Minister walked into the meeting hall last, when Ruto was just about to invite Uhuru Kenyatta who was the chief guest to speak. Sources indicate the large number of pro-Kalonzo MPs at the meeting could have influenced Uhuru’s appearance at the meeting.

The large gathering enjoyed every moment as speaker after speaker tore into the Prime Minister for alleged mishandling of the resettlement of people from Mau Forest.

But Langat said forces eyeing 2012 presidential election and those promoting tribal alliances have hijacked the plight of the landless in Mau Forest.

The MP challenged those who showed up at the funds drive to show more concern to the squatters already thrown out of their farms within the forest by donating land to them.

"Some of the leaders who showed up at the funds drive should be more human by offering the squatters a portion of the huge chunks they own elsewhere than wanting Kenyans to see them as more concerned than other Kenyans and the Government," said Langat.

He called for investigations into how rich Kenyans acquired section of the forest because they grabbed from squatters, pushing them deeper into the forest.

—Report by Oscar Obonyo, Biketi Kikechi, Beautah Omanga and Willis Oketch