Raila in trouble

Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s pursuit of clearance of human settlements from Mau Forest and subsequent exchange with Rift Valley leaders Is reshaping the political landscape ahead of 2012 General Election.

Already there are signs his shadow wars with some Rift Valley leaders led by Agriculture Minister William Ruto, a battle fought without mention of names, could have opened a door for the entry into the battle for the vote-rich province by his deputy Uhuru Kenyatta and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka.

The momentum of speculation the province, which is as rich in political rifts as it is with geographical features, which give it its rugged topography, is lent credence by Uhuru and Ruto’s earlier litmus test for a Kalenjin-Kikuyu Alliance.

Kalonzo, on the other hand, is associated with the proposal for a Kikuyu-Kalenjin-Kamba Alliance, and his trouble-free public meeting in Ruto’s home turf last week betrayed his renewed interest in what the province has to offer in a presidential race.
Prime Minister Raila Odinga


To cap it all, Uhuru, who was the first to side with Ruto when the Mau evictions were mooted, will on Wednesday lead a fund-raiser for the Mau evictees together with Kalonzo.

The reunion brings together two bitter rivals of Raila who walked out on him in the heat of 2007 cruising campaigns, and Ruto, his latest political rival who has declared his name like the PM’s will be on the 2012 presidential ballot paper.

The sensitivity of the upcoming possible realignment was discernible from the fact that President Kibaki and the PM met with select top Government officials to be briefed on security intelligence report that the fundraiser could precipitate a crisis and excite emotions.

It is reported the two leaders were told the fund-raiser would cast the Cabinet as divided and undermine the Government position that there was no humanitarian crisis in the Mau, and food, shelter and transport for the affected families were guaranteed.

After the meeting at Harambee House, however, it was not clear what was decided but one thing was obvious: the harambee would go on as planned for the organisers were still publicising it on Tuesday night. There was also one other certainty, Raila was not invited to the fundraiser.

The political scenario unravelling in the Rift Valley, where Raila was last week in Bomet, seems to still enjoy grassroots support but could be losing grip of the elected leaders, took an interesting turn on Monday when ODM Chairman Henry Kosgey, also said he disagreed with the PM’s approach on the Mau issue.

Kosgey has hitherto been Raila’s dependable ally in the province, having even directly warned Ruto’s bid for the Presidency if not well thought-out could alienate the community from other Kenyans.

The renewed clamour for a grip of the Rift Valley is triggering questions whether the PM will be a victim of Mau conservation, for which he has said for nationalistic and environmental reasons he is ready to pay the price. It is bound to raise the question how would he plug the hole left in his battleship by the exit of Rift leaders, if it happens. He has already showed signs he would be working with the non-Kalenjin communities in the province such as the Masai and Turkana, as well as directly engaging Kalenjins by bypassing their leaders. The warm reception in Bomet and Pokot last week must have buoyed him as it appeared to show he is still popular at the grassroots among the wider Kalenjin community.

Two local MPs, the Reverend Julius Murgor (Kapenguria) and Wilson Litole (Sigor) attended the Raila meeting last week in West Pokot, that was skipped by Information Minister Samuel Poghisio.

The minister appeared the following day at a meeting with Ruto in Trans Nzoia, the same day his party leader Kalonzo was hosted by Eldoret East MP Margaret Kamar in her constituency in Uasin Gishu, under which Ruto’s falls.

Kalonzo flew to the region in a Kenya Airforce helicopter last week and spent the whole weekend meeting with allies and courting new political friends.

Cherangany MP Joshua Kutuny says Kalonzo first reached out to the Rift Valley electorate when he sided with leaders in reconciling communities after the post-elections violence.

"We all wanted people reconciled after post-election violence while some of the leaders we supported during the last elections demanded that our leaders be tried in courts of law when they knew very well that post- election violence was not planned," said Kutuny.

Kutuny said the Mau issue has further isolated Raila because Ruto, Uhuru and Kalonzo have demanded that alternative land be provided before people are evicted," said Kutuny.

Kalonzo and Uhuru also helped defeat the vote of no-confidence Motion tabled by Ikolomani MP Bonny Khalwale against Ruto in Parliament.

Kalonzo recently added an extra ‘K’ on the earlier mooted ‘KK’ alliance, indicating he was ready and willing to lead his Kamba community into forging an alliance with Ruto in the Rift Valley and Uhuru in Central Province.

Ruto was expected to meet Kalonzo at Segero AIC Church on Sunday, when Raila moved his tour to Chepalungu in the South Rift. Ruto’s allies Eldoret Mayor William Rono and Wareng County Council chairman Paul Kiprop were with Kalonzo throughout the tour.

Both Rono and Kiprop made veiled attacks on Raila for allegedly pushing "our People out of the forest like wild animals".

Kalonzo took the opportunity to support the Truth Justice and Reconciliation Commission led by Betwell Kiplagat instead of threatening to handle post-election violence cases through courts.

During the tour, Raila insisted that the squatters had to be moved out of the forest to pave way for rehabilitation, while Kalonzo complained those being evicted were being "treated like chicken".

Kalonzo has stepped up efforts to shore up his political standing in Rift Valley against the backdrop of the falling out in ODM over Mau saga.

"He (Kalonzo) has been very consistent in dealing with issues that directly affect people in the North Rift region and other parts of the province," said Cherangany MP Kutuny.

But the latest storm on Mau, for which Ruto claims Cabinet never agreed on evictions, is seen as a political smoke screen. On Tuesday Ruto said on phone it was not fair for anyone to introduce politics on such a monumental issue like Mau.

"Those who are trying to introduce politics want to subvert the serious humanitarian issues in Mau," he added. In July Uhuru stepped in the row over compensation of those evicted from the forest, saying he was looking for funds in what was seen as tacit support for the Ruto camp.

Dissenting Rift Mps have also said they would not mind a vote of no confidence against the PM.