SECURE: The National Alliance flag at the Kiambu town proposed office in Kirigiti.Photo/Stanely Njenga
DEPUTY Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta's TNA party has zoned Kenya as part of its campaign strategy to break into strongholds of other presidential aspirants.
The zoning plan titled '2007 Results Viewed In 2012 Lenses', a copy of which has been seen by the Star, is based on how Kenyans voted in the last elections. It was prepared by Uhuru's strategy team to try and project voting patterns for the election on March 4, 2012.
The plan has divided Kenya into 47 county clusters based on their 2007 voting patterns. It has identified those considered likely to be 'TNA strongholds'; 'alliance votes' where TNA can count on a favourable reception due to alliances with parties in those counties; 'unfriendly' where the party is unlikely to receive substantial votes; and 'swing votes' where the electorate is undecided and can be persuaded to vote TNA.
TNA considers the counties of Central Kenya, which voted for President Kibaki in 2007, as its stronghold and where Uhuru expects to get most support.
The ten core counties are Kiambu, Muranga, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Meru, Kirinyaga, Embu, Laikipia, Tharaka Nithi and Nakuru. During the 2007 elections, 92 per cent of the 3,106,799 actual voters went for Kibaki while Raila received 7 per cent, and Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka one per cent.
Rift Valley counties, where Eldoret North MP William Ruto's URP is popular but which voted heavily for Raila in 2007, are now considered as "alliance counties." Ruto's strongholds of Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nandi, Baringo, Bomet and Kericho are clustered as alliance votes.
Uhuru and Ruto have reportedly reached a deal to run on a joint ticket for president and deputy president.
Other 'alliance' counties are Bungoma and Trans Nzoia, the stronghold of Justice minister Eugene Wamalwa who still insists his name will be on the presdidential ballot paper.
The document indicates how the TNA intends to allocate resources in its campaign for the swing and battleground counties.
The document believes that among the swing countries, Nairobi, Lamu, Isiolo, Kajiado, Kisii and Nyamira counties are likely to vote with TNA due to their cosmopolitan make up and past voting history of supporting Kikuyu candidates.
These counties had a combined 2,292,575 registered voters of whom 1,315,864 voted in 2007. Kibaki received 50 per cent; Raila 44 per cent ; and Kalonzo 5 per cent.
Tana River, Taita Taveta, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Marsabit, Turkana, Samburu and Narok are considered 'swing' counties that could decide the outcome of the poll. A total of 1,078,448 registered voters are not thought to be committed to any political party or aspirant.
In 2007, 54 per cent of them voted in favor of Raila while Kibaki got 43 per cent and Kalonzo 3 per cent.
The document accepts that Kalonzo and Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi may not support Uhuru, or join an alliance with Raila. The TNA strategists have identified their strongholds and will concentrate their efforts in the counties where they have a chance of swinging the vote in TNA's favour.
"Mudavadi believes the only way he can survive is to run, otherwise he will be cooked like in 2002, while we are not sure about Kalonzo," said an official of the Team Uhuru.
The Raila strongholds are identified as Kisumu, Siaya, Migori and Homa Bay. Kakamega, Busia and Vihiga are considered Mudavadi strongholds while Kitui, Makueni and Machakos belong to Kalonzo.
During the 2007 elections, Raila got 75 per cent of the 1,149,343 votes cast in Kakamega, Busia and Vihiga, Kibaki 24 per cent of the vote and Kalonzo got one per cent.
Raila also got 97 per cent of the 1,052,515 votes in Kisumu, Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori while Kibaki got three per cent and Kalonzo 1,143 votes.
According to the TNA strategists, the possibility of Mudavadi remaining in the race will further remove votes from Raila.
The document make allowances for Kalonzo remaining in the race and splitting the regional vote with Water minister Charity Ngilu who wants to run for president under Narc but is also in 'negotiations' with Uhuru's TNA.
In 2007, Kalonzo received 88 per cent of the 798,708 votes in Kitui, Makueni and Machakos; Kibaki got 10 per cent; and Raila got 2 per cent.
The TNA considers Mombasa, Kwale,Kilifi and West Pokot to be the counties where there will be fiercest competition as no party is likely to have an upper hand.
During the 2007 elections, Raila got 67 per cent of the 522,586 votes cast; Kibaki 26 per cent; and Kalonzo got seven per cent.
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