A sample graph of the recent opinion poll conducted by Ipsos Synovate which shows that there would still be no clear winner in the first round of the presidential race.
There would still be no clear winner in the event of the presidential poll being conducted today. This is according to the latest opinion poll by Ipsos Synovate in which none of the candidates who’ve expressed interest in the country’s top seat, would garner the 50 plus one per cent needed for a clear winner in the presidential race.
Prime Minister Raila Odinga who is the poll’s leading candidate has 33 per cent, followed closely by Uhuru Kenyatta with 26 per cent.
Both candidates have dropped in popularity since the last Synovate polls conducted in September. Raila has lost three percent while Kenyatta has lost four per cent of the votes.
Candidates and areas that have gained in the polls are Eldoret North MP and presidential hopeful William Ruto and Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi.
They have both of gained three per cent popularity poll. Additionally the number of undecided voters has increased to 11 per cent up from nine per cent in September.
Dr. Tom Wolf, a socio-political analyst with Ipsos Synovate attributed this shortfall of votes by the candidates to the unfinalised political alliances.
He however said this is likely to change after the December 4 deadline for parties to hand in their coalition agreements and alliances to the registrar of political parties.
Additionally Dr. Wolf said the ongoing voter registration exercise will likely influence choice of candidates along with the country’s security.
This he said in light of recent events such as the killing of over 40 police officers in Baragoi, Samburu, and an explosion in Eastleigh over the weekend that has so far claimed 10 lives.
He said that these could adversely affect the number of people willing to vote. Other matters arising from the poll was that key on the agenda of the next president irrespective of who it is, should be economic recovery.
46 per cent of all respondets to the survey said they would like the president to tackle the issue of economic improvement.
This is in line with the 39 per cent of Kenyans who decry the high cost of living in the country according to the poll. The opinion poll further showed that in order for the March 4 poll to be considered as free and fair, Kenyans want security, tribalism, transparency and more civic education on the new administrative structures to be looked into.
This lates survey was conducted between November 11 to 16 with a sample size of 2000 respondents across all eight provinces proportional to the population.
Margaret Ireri, the Managing Director at Ipsos Synovate said that the surveys will be conducted every four to six weeks up to the elections, and will be carried out in a sample of registered voters as opposed to a sample of persons aged 18 and above at the moment.
She additionally said that the public will be able to acces the poll results directly on their phones by using the short code 7560. This she said is in keeping with the the law that requires all opinion surveys to release their findings including methods used and sample size and distribution.
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