Only if Kalonzo, Mudavadi stick together...

Kipkoech Tanui

We were right when we said last week there would likely be four flanks in State House race. The first we said was obvious; Orange Democratic Movement and Raila Odinga. Second, would be what The Economist called ‘coalition of the accused’: Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto under The National Alliance and United Republican Party umbrella.

The third, which if you are that gullible you would believe they solidified their union this week, brings together Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi.

The fourth flank we said would be the other candidates who we may not pay attention but who could still tilt the race by spoiling the ethnic mathematics in the way they will appeal to undecided, neutrals and special interest groups such as women and youth. Here you will find Ms Martha Karua, Mr Peter Kenneth and Prof James Kiyiapi.

Today let us begin by ticking off the alliance which has every chance of being the ‘third force’ or even ‘third horse’ if there is anything like that but only if it survives the looming storm of uncertainty and fresh realignment.

This is the Mudavadi-Kalonzo thing. You realise I started off with first listing Kalonzo’s name before Mudavadi, and now I have done the opposite. This I deliberately did because experience has taught me either Kalonzo or someone close to him take particular note about the order in which names of others are listed alongside his on newspaper pages. 

From the way this race was shaping up, and with Ruto having chosen to play second fiddle to Uhuru despite the murmurs and screams of protest in his backyard, it was looking like it would be a two-horse race between Uhuru and Raila.

But if the rope they are trying to weave out of Wiper and UDF party strands would tautly hold, they could easily redefine this debate by giving those who can’t stand the Uhuru-Ruto alliance particularly because of way Kikuyu-Kalenjin vote numbers are being bandied around, another option.

Spare wheels

There is also another reason why this third option could shift the ground on which our politics stand. It is to be found in the reasons why Uhuru and Ruto wanted them on their alliance in the first place.

Mudavadi and Kalonzo, regardless of who will be the candidate and the other running mate, form the perfect set of spare wheels for URP-TNA vehicle in case courts scuttle Uhuru and Ruto’s bid for State House and they end up not running.

When the reality also strikes that the race to State House should be about more than putting in guys who may make Kenya the first country in the world to have a President and Deputy President in the dock at The Hague, some Kenyans may change mind about this TNA-URP thing. It is doubtful if the votes from the predominantly TNA-URP bloc would remain in this fold if Justice minister Eugene Wamalwa takes the mantle of candidate and Water Minister Charity Ngilu, running mate.

The prospect of a defeat of this pair by the Raila brigade may open the sluicegate for some of the TNA-URP votes to go to Mudavadi-Kalonzo, and even some to Raila. This I believe is what is in the minds of the so-called experts negotiating a Mudavadi-Kalonzo alliance.

It exists to thrive on two opportunities they have no control over; a race in which Uhuru-Ruto won’t run, and an alternative for Kenyans who can’t stand both Raila and Uhuru when and if they are running. That of course is not to say the fourth plank won’t pick a few of the pieces of votes should the two accused not run; they surely will but in whole probability on marginal levels.

The real test of Mudavadi-Kalonzo alliance, however, rests on three scenarios. First, knowing the mountainous ego of one of the two, Kalonzo would never go to an alliance with the option of being running mate. If it comes to that you will hear Uncle Steve, buoyed by his exaggerated sense of the Vice Presidency yanked through deceptiveness and betrayal of Kenyans at the time the country was bleeding, demand that he is the senior of the two and is ahead by opinion polls, and so should be the flag bearer.

He after all had started asking Uhuru to step down for him if he were to join his alliance.

Underdog role

Secondly, both came to each other because of appreciation they were quickly turning out to be diminished assets. But the harder part is agreeing on who will play the underdog role. To this they have two weeks to decide before the December 4 deadline, meaning it will be a boardroom decision not a verdict of party primaries.

Finally, either of them can still have separate negotiations with Raila who still has a vacancy for running mate and not very unrealistic chance to end up in State House.

My suspicion is that the man to watch here is Mudavadi, and so there may still be a chance for Kalonzo to pluck another Lady Julia from the corner of obscurity.

The writer is Managing Editor, Daily Editions, at The Standard.

ktanui@standardmedia.co.ke