Campaign money puts aspirants at risk

By JACOB NG’ETICH

Jack Ranguma almost never made it past the last Saturday of July. The 57-year-old former taxman, known to his friends as JR, was returning from a late night chemist in Ahero with his wife, Olivia, when he was attacked outside his home.

A gang of four men, one armed with a gun, surrounded his vehicle and demanded all the money and valuables they had. In the confusion of the robbery, one of the men stabbed Ranguma in the abdomen almost ending his life and his ambition to become Kisumu County governor.

The July 28 attack is just one of several against potential candidates in the March 4 General Election. While most are being treated as ordinary robberies, questions are being raised whether they are related to politics.

And when two aspirants seeking ODM and TNA nominations died in short succession this week – one shot in a robbery attempt and the other killed in a car crash – concerns over personal safety crossed the minds of many individuals hoping to vie for elective positions in the elections, now four months away.

This will be the biggest, most hotly contested election in Kenyan history thanks to devolution, which decentralises power and control of resources to 47 counties. As much as Sh150-200 billion a year (15 per cent of the targeted trillion-shilling-plus revenue collection) could be available to county governments.

Rising temperatures

In the allocation, each county will get an average Sh3 billion, with Nairobi County raking in Sh7 billion. Previously, only a fraction of this amount was controlled at the grassroots through some half a dozen devolved funds, leading to increased interest in political office from thousands of people.

Political temperatures are rising as leaders contest some 2,000 senatorial, gubernatorial, parliamentary and county assembly seats. Claims of intimidation of aspiring politicians have been made in various parts of the country, with others seeing an increase in the activities of militia groups and youth gangs. While sensational allegations of attempted assassinations are a staple of dirty politics, political leaders and security officers are taking no chances. Most presidential aspirants have varying levels of State-provided security by virtue of their positions as Government officers, Cabinet Ministers and MPs. Many candidates vying for other positions, however, have had to make private arrangements or leave their fortunes to fate.

In March, two armed men tried to force their way into the home of Suleiman Shabhal, a local businessman and aspirant for the Mombasa governorship. The two opened fire on Administration Police officers guarding the house. Other police officers on patrol joined the gunfight and scared off the armed gangsters. The attack, lacking the hallmarks of a serious robbery attempt, was seen as political. It was the second time Shabhal had been attacked, the first being in August last year, when he announced his bid officially.

Recent killings

The recent killing of ODM parliamentary aspirant Sam ‘Kwega’ Onyango and an earlier attack on Fisheries Development Minister Amason Kingi have prompted many to review their security arrangements. Kwega’s killing, which occurred during a robbery, sparked two days of riots in Kisumu town that left four people dead. Provincial Police officer Joseph ole Tito says the politician’s killing was not political, but a case of violent robbery.

“Initial investigations indicate that the killing was a random case of robbery,” said Mr Tito. “The victim was headed to the bank to bank (some Sh1.3 million), when the robbers shot him.”

The attack on Kingi last month, however, was clearly political, with his assailants unhappy he was urging Kilifi voters to turn out in large numbers. The Fisheries minister survived death by a whisker after a group of men hiding in a crowd attempted to hack him with panga. Police bodyguard Harrison Maitha died defending Kingi in the incident that left five dead and 11 injured. Coast Provincial Police chief Aggrey Adoli confirmed the deaths of at least four people in the violence: “We are investigating the cause of the incident.”

Patrick Mbarire, then Nyando Officer Commanding Police Division, says police are pursuing the four men who attacked Ranguma.

“The incident was reported here and we are still carrying out our investigations to ascertain the motive of the attack,” he said.

Security expert Simiyu Werunga says cases of violence against political aspirants are likely to rise in the near future as criminals take advantage of the fact that many prefer to campaign with cash in hand.

“The general perception is that for one to vie, they must have made their money. Therefore, politicians are an easy target for gangs,” said Mr Werunga, a Director of the African Centre for Security and Strategic Studies. He added that some politicians are not keen on their security and that makes them vulnerable.

“It is important that aspirants organise their in-house security as part of the priorities in the campaign,” said Werunga. “The State cannot provide security for every aspirant.”

He says the greatest risk is not of political assassinations arranged by opponents. Rather, it is of less serious attacks by ordinary criminals or rivals to intimidate the candidate or to cast suspicion on other rivals.

Rise in poll related attacks

“There are people who are likely to disguise themselves and even attack an aspirant for their own criminal intentions knowing well that the competitors will bear responsibility for the incidence,” said the security consultant.

Others have argued that devolution, which will see billions go to the 47 counties, could lead to an increase in election-related violence as politicians jostle for positions of influence. They point to killings and other attacks related to control of the Constituency Development Fund (which shared out just 2.5 per cent of national revenue).

Ndung’u Wainaina, the executive Director of International Centre for Policy and Conflict (ICPC), says the desire to control the billions of shillings at county level could lead some aspirants to go to unusual lengths.

“The politicians will be small presidents in their counties and therefore, some self-seekers would stop at nothing to control the billions,” Mr Wainaina said. Whereas a County governor will be in charge of about Sh1.6 billion, the 1,450 county representatives will be in charge of over Sh100million each. This, he warns, could excite a lot of unhealthy political competition and rivalry. The Philippines is often held up as a cautionary tale over devolution-related violence: In the 2010 elections, five candidates and more than a dozen campaign officials were killed in battles to control regional governments. One competitor shocked the world by killing 57 people in an opponent’s entourage. The group was attacked travelling in a convoy to file candidacy papers for provincial governor in Maguindanao.

When women politicians gathered for a workshop at the Masada hotel in Naivasha last week, violence was one of the issues on their minds. Nominated MP Rachel Shebesh said women bore the brunt of violence during campaign time with many facing threats from their male competitors.

“Women are exposed to dangers of kidnapping, intimidation, violence and victimisation mainly from male challengers,” she said.

There are only a handful of companies offering personal protection services locally. According to an employee at Radar security, which provides VIP protection services, no politician has requested help over the campaign period. We could not immediately establish whether any had reached out to the police, who hire out officers on occasion, or other security firms.

Werunga said his institute had started a new programme on electoral security.

“We hope to bring together all the stakeholders in this electoral process to appreciate the importance of election security,” he said. “Lack of it can be disastrous. We need to sensitise everyone, including politicians, on the need to be security conscious during campaigns.”