Wikileaks: PM, VP plans on 2012 election

By Alex Ndegwa

Candid private discussions with President Kibaki, Prime Minister Raila Odinga, and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka on the General Election expected this year can now be revealed.

Kalonzo reportedly told then US Ambassador Michael Ranneberger in 2008 that President Kibaki and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta had agreed to support his candidature for the presidency in the 2012 General Election.

And in March 2009, Ranneberger reminded Raila of the US promise during talks on the political crisis to “support him if he agreed to a political solution” to the crisis. At another meeting the PM was told he had to cut off vested interests around him if he is to win the 2012 elections, or they would bring him down.

The then US envoy observed his meetings with the President gave the impression he thought bringing together the Kikuyu and Kalenjin in an alliance for the 2012 elections would shape his legacy.

Michael Ranneberger

The two communities were in opposing camps in the disputed 2007 presidential vote, which sparked violence that has bloated Kibaki’s regime and is the subject of International Criminal Court proceedings against four Kenyans, including two of Kibaki’s top aides.

Whistle blower

These accounts are contained in the recent leaks of classified US diplomatic cables published by whistle blower websites, Wikileaks.

Scott Gration, who previously served as US Special Envoy to Sudan, replaced Ranneberger last year in Nairobi.

One of the cables recounts a meeting on January 20, 2008, – at the height of the political crisis – between Ranneberger and Kalonzo.  Ranneberger says during the one and a half hour discussion, he told Kalonzo that the US expected him to use his leverage within the Government to support a political solution or he would “destroy his political future”.

“Musyoka confided, as is generally believed, that as a quid pro quo for his accepting the vice-presidency, Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta agreed to support Kalonzo as candidate for the president in 2012,” Ranneberger reportedly wrote.

The said deal was in exchange for the ODM-Kenya leader’s acceptance of the VP’s post and to take his party into a coalition with PNU. Kalonzo had been appointed VP to stabilise President Kibaki’s Government, which was facing a crisis of legitimacy after Raila of ODM claimed victory.

As things would turn out, Kalonzo is now in an alliance dubbed the G7 with Uhuru, Eldoret North MP, William Ruto, and Saboti MP Eugene Wamwala seeking to field a joint candidate against the PM.

The cable reports Kalonzo had asked Kibaki to “cut a deal” too with Raila for the sake of the country and only accepted the VP’s position after ODM pressed on with hard line positions.

Kibaki and Raila subsequently struck a power sharing deal on February 28, 2008.

Subsequent cables detail Ranneberger reporting on various meetings in 2009 with the President and PM, which were laced with 2012 succession politics, although convened to urge them to follow through on implementation of the reform agenda.

His meetings with Kibaki gave him the impression the President valued the deal with Raila to end the violence, but was equally concerned about the differences between the Kikuyu and Kalenjin.

Kalonzo Musyoka

“While Kibaki probably has some sense of wanting to leave a legacy, he likely sees having restored peace to the country as one of his major contributions,” Ranneberger said.

“He may also see his legacy as helping to work out an accommodation between his Kikuyu ethnic group (and their natural political allies, the Embu and Meru) and their rivals in the last election, the Kalenjins, which would constitute a majority alliance for the 2012 elections,” he added.

Uhuru and Ruto – who are among the four facing crimes against humanity cases at the ICC – are working out an alliance.

Kalonzo and Eugene have joined them in countrywide rallies in which Raila has received heavy bashing.

In one of the meetings Ranneberger told Raila his chances to succeed Kibaki as fourth President were hinged on him living up to the reputation of a populist reformer. He, however, warned Raila that Kenyans were increasingly disillusioned that he had not acted boldly.

“I argued that he cannot get to victory in the 2012 elections through the business-as-usual political route; rather, he needs to take action on reforms and to counter impunity that will appeal to youth across ethnic lines. This means wounding some of the vested interests around him but, if he hesitates, he will be dragged down by those same vested interests,” Ranneberger is quoted saying.

During a March 2009 discussion, he recounts Raila telling him he understands “the need to break from the pack”. According to the cable, Raila talked about the resistance of the old order to change. “Something has to give,” Raila reportedly remarked.

At one point Ranneberger recalls the US Government pledge during delicate peace talks mediated by former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan.

“I reminded Odinga that during the crisis I had indicated we would support him if he agreed to a political solution,” Ranneberger reports.

But perhaps wary of repeated claims by rivals that foreign governments favoured the ODM leader he explained their interest in the PM.

Ranneberger goes on: “I also reminded him that we are not doing this because we have taken sides, but rather because the Coalition Government cannot be successful unless he succeeds as Prime Minister.”

The steps the envoy impressed on the Premier to succeed included reorganising his office to put in place effective people who would advocate and implement an agenda for change.

The diplomat opined although Raila seemed to appreciate the need to act more boldly, equally he was worried about isolation given his third quest for president.

“Odinga is worried that bolder actions to challenge vested interests and impunity could leave him isolated. While it would likely make him a hero among many young people (who constitute almost two-thirds of the population), Odinga also knows that those young people will be driven to some extent by ethnic considerations and the influence of the old guard who control the resources,” he explains.

Ranneberger concluded: “Thus Odinga likely may believe that he will need the vested interests behind him to have any hope of being successful in 2012.”