Experts ponder Al Qaeda, Shabaab union implications

By Isaiah Lucheli

Opinion is divided on the importance of the announcement this week that Somalia’s Al-Shabaab terror group has formally joined Al-Qaeda.

Terrorism experts point out that the message comes at a time when both organisations have suffered major setbacks, with several key leaders killed in the last 12 months. They also argue that the two groups have long been seen as affiliated to to each other, raising the possibility this is an attempt to boost morale on both sides.

Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri announced the merger in a 15-minute video released on Thursday.

“I will break the good news to our Islamic nation, which will... annoy the crusaders, and it is that the Shabaab movement in Somalia has joined Al-Qaeda,” Zawahiri said. “The jihadist movement is growing and spreading within its Muslim nation despite facing the fiercest crusade campaign in history by the West.”

The video was published on an Islamic Internet forum and picked up by the Search for International Terrorist Entities (SITE) Intelligence group. It includes an audio clip of embattled Al-Shabaab leader Ahmed Abdi Godane pledging obedience to al-Zawahiri and saying: “We will move along with you as faithful soldiers.”

Prison Warders from Shimo La Tewa Prison undergo bomb awareness training at the prison in Mombasa, Friday. [PHOTO: KEVIN ODIT/STANDARD]

 The announcement has elicited swift reaction among security experts and military officials in the country and around the world.

Kenya Defence Forces spokesman Emmanuel Chirchir says Al-Shabaab has a long history with Al-Qaeda, with the latter providing dozens of foreign fighters.

He told The Standard On Saturday that KDF was unlikely to do anything differently as a result of the announcement.

“Al-Shabaab and Al-Qaeda have been operating together and their purported merger does not pose any threat,” he said. “The status of KDF in Somalia remains as is and we will continue to fight the militia group.”

With evidence of Al-Shabaab in Somalia splintering into various factions, however, there is debate as to just how significant this development is.

Suicide bombing

There are reports that Godane, also known as Mukhtar Abu Zubeyr, is not the uncontested ‘amir’ of Al-Shabaab, having allegedly been succeeded by Ibrahim Haji Jama Mee’aad or ‘Ibrahim al-Afghani’ after a power struggle.

Abu Zubeyr has also reportedly fallen out with other regional heads of al-Shabaab over a suicide bombing in Mogadishu in October last year in which 100 people, many of them students, were killed.

Al Shabaab’s leadership is also divided among nationalist factions of clan-based militia leaders, with leaders like Mukhtar Robow ‘Abu Mansur’ and Hassan Dahir Aweys seen as less likely to commit to Abu Zubeyr’s agenda.

He can, however, count on support from Kenyan jihadis: Former Majengo cleric Ahmad Iman Ali, who was recently named Al-Shabaab’s representative in Kenya, is allied to Abu Zubeyr.

Al-Zawahiri says the merger is meant to “support jihadi unity against the Zion-Crusader campaign and their assistants amongst the treacherous agent rulers”.

This appears to be a reference to the Western-backed support for Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government, which includes intelligence backing for Kenya’s military offensive in the war-torn country.

 Al-Zawahiri took command of al Qaeda after commandos from the United States killed the movement’s founder, Osama bin Laden, last May. Several others in the organisation have been killed since, including operations chief Abu Hafs al-Shahri, Pakistani leader Ilyas Kashmiri, Libyan Atiyah abd Al-Rahman and East African leader Fazul Mohammed. Most were killed by drone strikes ordered by US President Barack Obama in a series of deadly actions focussed on half a dozen countries.

Other prominent casualties include propagandist Anwar al-Awlaki, his fellow American Samir Khan, and, as recently as yesterday, Badr Mansur, a Taliban ally of Al-Qaeda in Pakistan.

Al-Shabaab’s foreign fighters in Somalia have also some under pressure from KDF and its allies.

 For many Kenyans, the mention of Al-Qaeda evokes memories of two terror attacks: one on the American embassy in Nairobi in 1998 and another on a hotel in Kikambala in 2002. The first attack left some 250 people killed and over 5,000 injured.

War on Al Shabaab

Usalama Reform Forum co-ordinator Philip Onguje says the merger has put the war against Al-Shabaab on the global field. He called on the international community to help countries in the region deal with the threat effectively.

“People should be more cautious and vigilant as the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) continue with the incursion in Somali,” he urged. “We should not drop our guard in social places and even our homes.”

Onguje argued the move, which came with blessings for international attacks, may embolden Al-Shabaab and increase their resolve to organize attacks in Kenya.

“Their merging is not a good thing for the East African region,” he said. “With the presence of Amisom and KDF in Somalia, they could be contained. But there are risks that Kenyans need to confront.”

 Kenya Police spokesman Eric Kiraithe also insisted the merging of the two groups was not news. He added that the police would continue to be vigilant to ensure security was maintained.

Al-Shabaab and its sympathisers have been responsible for several attacks against the police force and other targets in north-eastern Kenya. He urged caution and improved security checks in public places.

“We cannot to drop our guard now. We have bolstered security patrols in urban centres and we are calling on the public to be vigilant and help in ensuring that any suspicious individuals and gadgets are reported to the police,” he said.

Following the launch of ‘Operation Linda Nchi’, KDF has pushed Al-Shabaab out of several towns, including El Afe Fafadun, Busar, Inda El and Damasa in the Northern sector, Dobley, Tabda, Bilis Qoqani, Hayo, Qatar and Delbio in the Central sector, and Ras Kamboni, Burqabo and Kulbio in the Southern sector.

Kenya hosts over 600,000 Somali refugees at the Daadab refugee camps. The country launched a military operation into Somalia on October 16 last year.

Africa Union and TFG troops have since taken control of Mogadishu, with Ethiopian troops also pushing back the Islamists. Al-Shabaab, however, still controls many southern and central areas of Somalia.