How Kalonzo could beat Raila in presidential vote

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By MAKAU MUTUA
Posted  Saturday, November 5  2011 at  20:00

Opinion polls show Prime Minister Raila Odinga with a substantial lead over all the other presidential hopefuls.

But if I were Mr Odinga, I would recycle the piece of paper on which the polls are printed. Why? First, the polls put Mr Odinga at below the 50 per cent + 1 mark, which means he would face a run-off.

Second, there are too many imponderables the polls can’t digest, or predict. Third, anything could happen before the election.

One thing that “could happen” to Mr Odinga is Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka. I have concluded the man from Tseikuru is the one to watch.

My crystal ball tells me the election — take this to the bank — will be a two-horse race between Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka.

I know some people will holler that I have thrown other contenders under the bus. I have no such power. But facts are stubborn things.

As I see the field, there are only three first-tier contenders — Mr Odinga, Mr Musyoka and Finance Minister Uhuru Kenyatta.

There are only three second-tier contenders — Gichugu MP Martha Karua, Eldoret North MP William Ruto, and Internal Security Minister George Saitoti.

But the real game will only be played among the top three. However, that trio will be reduced into a duo.Finally, there’s only one third-tier contender — Safina leader Paul Muite. No other contender really matters, or is likely to make any real waves.

It’s only the duo of Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka that will duel it out for the right of tenancy in the State House.

Mr Kenyatta will fall by the wayside. Why? That’s because Mr Kenyatta’s feet are leaden. Politically, the man from Gatundu has too many liabilities.

One inescapable — but odious reality — is that Kenyan voters are unlikely to return another Kikuyu to the pinnacle of power.

Sword of damocles

This is a cold fact whether we like it or not. Then there is the matter of The Hague and alleged crimes against humanity.

This is a Sword of Damocles. Mr Kenyatta is damaged goods whether or not charges against him are confirmed. My view is that he’s not a viable contender.

I know that PNU isn’t sold on Mr Musyoka as the flagbearer. But PNU will have no choice but to embrace the VP in Mr Kenyatta’s absence.

Mark my words — no other PNU nominee is capable of selling nationally. Mr Odinga would beat the lackadaisical Prof Saitoti like a drum.

Mind you — I predict that the next president will come from a community that hasn’t produced any in the past. Some contenders are simply “pretenders”.

Once the dust clears, the bulls in the ring will be ODM’s Odinga and PNU’s Musyoka. This will be a bitter contest. Most pundits would pick Mr Odinga to win, but I will sketch a scenario that has Mr Musyoka coming out tops.

First, Mr Odinga may have been cursed by The Hague. The Kikuyu and Kalenjin elites may blame Mr Odinga for Mr Kenyatta’s and Mr Ruto’s tribulations.

Although not true, they’ve sold the poison pill to most of their kinsmen that Mr Odinga connived with ICC Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo to “take out” their sons.

Mr Odinga will be hard pressed to overcome this emotive — but false — propaganda. Mr Musyoka — he of the “shuttle diplomacy” to save the Ocampo Six — will “add salt” to this lie.

Second, Mr Musyoka could “add insult to Mr Odinga’s injury” by picking a running mate from among the Kalenjin. Let’s say he picks Agriculture minister Sally Kosgei as his running mate. This “east-west” ticket could be viewed as national.The likely result is that Mr Musyoka will inherit large chunks of Kikuyu and Kalenjin votes. He’ll capitalise on this anger to emerge as the “prince of peace” who can bring Kikuyus and Kalenjins together.

If, on the other hand, Mr Odinga is stuck with Local Government minister Musalia Mudavadi, ODM would be a “west-west” ticket. Mr Musyoka could exploit ODM’s ticket as parochial and “nationally imbalanced”.

Add to Mr Musyoka’s bag of Christian fundamentalists and evangelicals. In this scenario, Mr Musyoka could easily line up three of the top five communities – Kikuyu, Kamba and Kalenjin. Put in his column Meru, many Luhya, Maasai, “coastals,” and the Kisii. This ethnic math would be very formidable.

Third, Mr Musyoka could resuscitate the old Kanu machinery and loyalty networks. This nomenklatura runs deep in Kenyan politics.

It courses the veins of most politicians and businesspeople over 40. Combine it with the advantages of “incumbency” that Mr Musyoka is likely to enjoy.

Don’t forget that the election will be conducted under a “PNU government” of which Mr Musyoka is the VP. ODM doesn’t control any sensitive instruments of power. This could make a difference in a close election.

President Kibaki — in spite of his aloofness — will be compelled to back Mr Musyoka. “Old money” in “Central Kenya”, which is conservative, would most likely bankroll Mr Musyoka. American religious conservatives — ala Tea Party — would rally to Mr Musyoka’s side.

Finally, my scenario has Mr Musyoka beating Mr Odinga in the first round. This would make a lie of the polls. Even if Mr Musyoka wouldn’t beat Mr Odinga in the first round, he could be favoured to do so in the second.

The 2012 election will be akin to an “immovable object” — Mr Musyoka — meeting an “irresistible force” — Mr Odinga.

This will be a battle royale of the titans. My hypothesis doesn’t have good news for the man they call Agwambo. That’s why he shouldn’t believe the polls.

Makau Mutua is Dean and SUNY Distinguished Professor at the State University of New York at Buffalo Law School and Chair of the KHRC.