GLOVES OFF AS RUTO PLOTS POLITICAL CHESS MOVES

Kipkoech Tanui

When President Kibaki visited Rift Valley twelve days ago three things took place that demonstrate political uncertainty prevailing in the region. Two Kalenjin MPs — Mrs Peris Simam and Mr Joshua Kuttuny — pleaded with the President to bless Mr William Ruto to take over from him as Kenya’s fourth President.

It was hilarious listening to these two, who expect Ruto to reciprocate by turning the election tide in their favour next year, asking Kibaki to give Ruto a rope to hang. For it is political suicide to seek the blessings of the incumbent to run for State House and if in doubt ask Mr Uhuru Kenyatta. That aside, Ruto’s opponents must have been left in stitches when they reflect on the past.

I at first told myself what do you expect of Kuttuny and Simam until they apologised to President Kibaki for having not voted for him in 2007, the year his controversial ‘win’ splattered blood on Kenya’s name.

Whereas the first request was to test his fascination with Mr Uhuru Kenyatta, the apple of the President’s eye, the second was obviously a snide remark against Mr Raila Odinga, whom the region voted for almost to a man then and whose name Ruto has worked hard to make a taboo subject among Kalenjins.

The third came from Ruto himself when after showering praises at the President, saying he had laid the foundation for development upon which his successors, of course preferably himself, would emulate, asked Kibaki to give his blessings to G7 Alliance, to which he is a member alongside Mr Kalonzo Musyoka, Uhuru, and some other less impressive politicians. And so it emerged what Simam and Kuttuny had said was choreographed.

Yes, it emerged one of Ruto and United Democratic Movement strategies is to pursue rapproachment with the Kikuyu community, by dangling political carrots of peace in Rift Valley before Kibaki and Uhuru.

Problem with this strategy as I see is five-fold. First, with the two communities having produced Presidents, the rest of Kenya may scatter when G7 looks like a mean machine cobbled up by the Kalenjin and Kikuyu to reclaim power.

Kikuyu barons

That is probably why Kalonzo, even as he brands himself as G7 ‘compromise’ candidate, is busy refurbishing his piece of the Orange movement, complete with a fresh coat of paint and symbolic umbrella incase Ruto and Uhuru leave him out in the rain.

The other factor that could work against the Uhuru-Ruto alliance is the brute reality that in 2007, the Kalenjin did not vote for Raila as much as they voted against Kibaki, largely because of the perception he was the vanguard of the Kikuyu alienation and persecution of Kalenjins in post-Moi era.

He is also a reminder of the questionable land acquisitions by Kikuyu barons and their appendages in the Kenyatta era in Rift Valley.

Raila, as I have argued before looked like the big stick they could wield against the Kikuyu in 2007 and therein, lay his popularity in the Rift then. Today therefore, much as Ruto’s group claim Raila has surpassed his sell-by date, the circumstances that gave him a foothold in the region have not faded out.

In fact, given the highly ethnicised nature of politics in the region, it is doubtful if Raila would fare that badly among Kalenjins were he to be only candidate on the ballot paper with Uhuru. Things would change if Ruto runs, which will take Kalenjin voters away from both Tinga and Son of Jomo!

This may sound sacrilegious to say in this province but there are those who seem to view Ruto’s consort with Uhuru not so much as a ‘communal’ strategy but a selfish survival political manouevre.

Those who support this school of thought point out to the fact that the majority of Kalenjin MPs have chosen a wait-and-see attitude.

They neither want to antagonise Raila, who is leading in opinion polls, nor throw themselves at Uhuru, who is second, and whom if all factors remain constant, could be G7’s candidate. I say so because I do not see him accepting to be Ruto’s or Kalonzo’s running mate, not with his profile, pedigree background, deep pockets, and representation of Kikuyus’ nostalgia for power after Kenyatta and Kibaki.

The fourth factor is what The Hague has in store for Uhuru and Ruto next month. Innocent as they say they are, there is no telling if both or one of them will be committed to full trial, or set free. It is illogical to argue against what the coming ruling portends for G7 Alliance. We may not know the ruling, but we know Ruto’s supporters would not cry for Uhuru if their man is let free and the Son of Jomo is committed to trial.

The reverse is also true if Ruto remains in and Uhuru out.

The old flame

The fifth factor is the most selfish but holds true — Ruto is under pressure from his community to run no matter the outcome. If he backs out to support someone else, he will have written his political epitaph, and it shall then be said Moi’s shoes were indeed too big for him.

So in a sense, Kuttuny and Simam were sincere, they want Ruto at State House where among his subjects he will count Raila, and Samoei will stop at nothing to be its next tenant, even riding on Kibaki’s back if possible.

But if for any reason he does not run, the Kalenjin will still be open up for other suitors, and on this score, that old flame called Raila may just send their hearts glowing again.

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Tomorrow at Kabarak University Chapel, my friend Nicholas Kibet Bundotich ties the knot with his love Mary Jerop Selembu. Wishing them a lifetime of happiness, oneness and togetherness.

The writer is Managing Editor, Daily Editions, at The Standard.

ktanui@standardmedia.co.ke