Why ODM polls could be game-changer for Raila

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By OSCAR OBONYO

The political destiny of the giant Orange party and that of its leader, Prime Minister Raila Odinga, takes shape this weekend following party elections.

It is a slippery journey of mixed fortunes that nonetheless the audacious Raila has opted to confront. Coming at a time ODM is experiencing internal dissent engineered by one of the PM’s party deputies, Eldoret North MP William Ruto, the exercise is delicate.

Eyes are on ODM leader Raila Odinga and his deputy Musalia Mudavadi (left). [PHOTO: FILE/STANDARD]

While there has been agreement by top party decision making organs, including the parliamentary group over the need to hold the elections, the timing has been debatable. Some wanted it held next year, so as to accommodate last-minute defectors from other parties.

"The timing is favourable, because if conducted late and there is a falling out, it would leave fresh wounds that rivals would exploit," argues political science lecturer, Amukowa Anangwe.

Anangwe, who teaches at University of Dodoma in Tanzania, explains that the possible falling out within PNU or the so-called G7 does not add value to Orange party strategy.

ODM, says the former Cabinet minister, has a concrete election plan that is not dependent on uncertainties, factors including possible falling out among rivals.

Not reliable

"They (rivals) are like lovers on a rebound. You can never bank on them and even if they defect to your side, they do so out of frustrations. Their passions for the party are not genuine or guaranteed," says Dr Anangwe, who headed ODM campaign secretariat in 2007. The PM’s Director of CommunicationDennis Onyango, says there was a feeling among members on the need to reorganise and re-energise the party.

Those in party positions who, in the view of majority members, were loyal and performing well, also needed to be confirmed in their positions.

"There were concerns that the youth and women missed out on key slots in the last polls, and, therefore needed to be incorporated. The premier, who believes the youth are a crucial constituency in governance, shares this view," says Onyango.

Although he has lately faced major political challenges from rivals, Raila has survived the turbulence. Raila remains the most popular aspirant for the top seat, and ODM the political party of choice for many. But if the after-poll effect is handled poorly, the exercise could mark the beginning of the end of Brand Raila.

Anangwe and political scientist Mutahi Ngunyi concur the exercise is of great significance to Raila, who must demonstrate his organisational abilities.

"The PM has taken a great risk – one that many leaders shy away from – to carry out this exercise. He can take pride on the fact he is a pacesetter – as always – and the party is dealing with the consequences of the process as they come," says Anangwe.

Mr Ngunyi views the ODM exercise primarily as the PM’s mock elections: "Raila does not need this party, but rather it is the party and its functionaries that need him. What the PM needs is another key individual, with whom to team up ahead of the General Election due next year," says Ngunyi.

Presidential bid

The political commentator views the ongoing polls as part of Raila’s wider presidential campaigns and a strategy to farmiliarise himself with the ground.

"In any case he will drop the party and form an alliance with somebody else. And history shows that lately, no serious candidate goes to the polls with the same political outfit and wins," says Ngunyi.

Onyango says the PM’s primary goal is to strengthen the party before kicking off his presidential campaigns. Raila reportedly believes more in approaching 2011 as a focused team, rather than an individual. "The whole notion is to put together a strong team that you can trust to steer the party campaign and even negotiate on your behalf, if there is need for incorporating new players or working with new allies," says Onyango.

The move is an open admission that Ruto has caused enough havoc from within, hence the need to reorganise. And as if reading from the same script of Raila, who in 2002 was in Kanu but led a walkout at the eleventh hour leaving the cockerel party in shambles, Ruto and allies have declined to quit ODM, just yet. If Ruto was "playing a Raila", he has now been stopped in his tracks. And one can trust the PM, himself a perfectionist of this ploy, not to have handed Ruto a weapon to frustrate him politically.

The move by ODM to stage early elections was expected since the PM is not known to move on a hazy path without a clear roadmap. When he was jostling for control of the original ODM-Kenya with Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka in 2007, for instance, Raila opted for a new party with the same name.

To some pundits, however, the timing of the polls is not right, as it denies the party from reaping from possible falling out from the Kalonzo-Ruto-Uhuru axis. The three leaders are engaged in a quiet cutthroat competition to identify one of them to face off with the PM in the presidential race.

ODM’s potential allies, currently associated to other parties, are also likely to be locked out of the exercise as they cannot technically participate. They include Water Minister and National Rainbow Coalition party leader Charity Ngilu and Assistant minister Manson Nyamweya.

But Anangwe maintains the door is not closed "just yet" for friendly associates and future allies. Besides, he observes, the party constitution does not allow candidates for electives seats in Parliament, Senate or county governments to be party officials. This provision allows new players to participate in the polls.