Raila under pressure to drop Mudavadi

By ISAAC ONGIRI

Pressure is mounting on Prime Minister Raila Odinga and his Orange party to consider a running mate with roots from the East to demystify the perception that the party is dominated by people from Western Kenya and Lake Victoria region.

The move is aimed at attracting more voters from outside these regions and is further triggered by an increasing urge to appeal particularly to voters in Central and Eastern provinces, especially the Kikuyu and the Ameru.

Pressure is mounting on Prime Minister Raila Odinga and his Orange party to appoint a running mate outside Western Kenya [PHOTO: FILE/STANDARD]

But even as strategists within Raila’s camp brainstorm on the matter, the PM’s headache is how to handle Musalia Mudavadi, a loyal deputy who has stood with him hostile to his previous presidential bids. He hopes to woo them to replace the support he has lost in the Rift Valley after falling out with his party deputy William Ruto.

Key leaders from the East of Kenya allied to Raila include Cabinet ministers Joseph Nyagah and Charity Ngilu, Assistant Ministers Wavinya Ndeti and Kilemi Mwiria, Igembe South MP Mithika Linturi, Imenti Central MP Gitobu Imanyara, Kiamba MP Stanley Githunguri and former Ntonyiri MP Maoka Maore.

But ODM insiders who say that Mudavadi is lukewarm and less aggressive give him credit as a political thinker and a team player. They say Mudavadi is a serious boardroom strategist who has been keeping ODM going in tough times.

Political oblivion

Raila recently indicated at a rally in Bungoma that he would be sticking with Mudavadi, warning that if they separate they would both plunge to political oblivion.

Mumias MP Benjamin Washiali who is also ODM’s deputy chief whip in Parliament, confirmed the concerns generated over the running mate issue inside the Orange party, revealing that a few names have been informally floated but warned that any attempt to isolate Mudavadi would be met with an immediate protest that would lead to the total disintegration of ODM.

"The issue of shifting the ODM running mate from Western Kenya to Eastern Kenya has been doing the rounds within the party informally. Those floating it have mentioned that that he or she should be a strong person from the Rift Valley, Eastern or Central. They have mentioned Charity Ngilu, Peter Kenneth and Martha Karua," Washiali revealed. Another leader heavily touted due to his clout in the Eastern region is Cooperatives Development Minister Joseph Nyagah.

The minister is ODM’s torchbearer in the region.

Washiali, however, said Western Province and Nyanza remain the biggest pillars of ODM and that any move seen to be hurting the Luhya will see a huge exodus from the party into New Ford-Kenya.

"If someone jokes around with us and let me put it clear… We shall decamp to Eugene Wamalwa’s New Ford-Kenya," Washiali warned.

In an interview with The Standard on Sunday, Lands Minister James Orengo also admits concerns over the PM’s running mate have been floated around.

"I know there are concerns over the running mate issue but the pressure is being generated mostly by people who do not belong to our party," Orengo said.

The minister said although suggestions to have a running mate from outside Western Kenya have been made, loyal ODM membership have no problem with the partnership between Raila and Mudavadi.

Orengo argues that the issue of a running mate is not only a dilemma for ODM but even for the G7 alliance.

"I don’t think we are going to spend sleepless nights on this matter because ODM has a structure that places Raila as the party leader and Mudavadi as his deputy and this is very clear," the minister argues.

Meru politician Mpuri Aburi, an ardent Raila supporter, said the party delegates from Central and Eastern Provinces would continue to push the party to pick a running mate from the Mt Kenya region to ease their campaigns and to confirm an ODM win in the 2012 elections.

"It is clear in the spirit of equity under the new Constitution that it will be impossible to have Raila as the presidential candidate and Mudavadi as his running mate. Though my prayer is that Raila should one day get a chance to rule this country, we will be demanding that Mudavadi paves way for a running mate from the East," Aburi said.

Serious sacrifices

Mr Paul Thuranira, a member of the ODM elections board, who argues that ODM must make serious sacrifices to ensure a Raila victory.

"We are not begging to have this matter made an issue of equity. In fact we shall be insisting that it is impossible under the Second Republic to have an election line-up that has no respect for regional balance," Thuranira said.

And Linturi, who has been warming up to Raila’s camp, said he would be advising the PM to pick a running mate from the East so as to endear himself to the region and let the people from areas where his popularity has been dismal embrace him.

Says Linturi: "The people from Mt Kenya region would see Raila as having no regard for them if his running mate is also from the West. This will also be a contradiction of the Constitution, which is strict on regional balance."

But Imanyara argues that although PNU will use the running mate as a card to play propaganda against the PM, Mudavadi remains the most suitable election partner to Raila.

"I understand the PM’s predicament but people must appreciate that you do not just pick any Tom, Dick and Harry as running mate. There must be a working chemistry between the two. Just imagine if William Ruto was Raila’s running mate or Kalonzo Musyoka for example. In my view he should stick with Mudavadi," Imanyara said.

Politician Mumbi Ngaru admits that she has heard of concerns over the running mate issue but argues that those advancing the argument are spoilers keen to disrupt ODM stability.

"It is true that people have been talking about it, but what I am wondering is why they never talked about President Moi and Prof George Saitoti, both of who came from the Rift Valley. What about Kalonzo Musyoka and President Kibaki who are from the East?" Ngaru wonders.

Shinyalu MP Justus Kizito warns that any election line-up in ODM that does not include Raila and Mudavadi is doomed to fail. "Though this is a matter for party delegates to decide, it is so sensitive to be handled casually because Mudavadi has huge support in Western Province to be taken for granted," said Kizito.

Regional value

Political analyst Munene Macharia argues that Raila’s decision to run with Mudavadi would only be profitable if the PM thinks he is popular enough and other regions do not add value to his election plan.

"I know Raila will get some votes from the counties in the East of Kenya but his decision to go with Mudavadi will be profitable depending on how popular he thinks he is," argues Macharia.

Mr Martin Oloo, a lecturer at the Kenya School of Law, reasons that an election partnership between Raila and Mudavadi will be harmless to their election plan as it has never been an issue in Kenya.

"What does one bring to the ticket as a running mate? In Mudavadi Raila finds a loyal partner who assures massive support. Going to East for an untested relationship is to take a gamble," cautions Oloo.