Will Kalonzo-Mudavadi face off in 2012 presidential elections?

By OSCAR OBONYO

With premature presidential campaigns under way, focus is squarely on hardball players, Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, and Eldoret North MP William Ruto.

However, unseen in the political fog, are Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi, Narc-Kenya leader Martha Karua and Planning Assistant Minister Peter Kenneth, all whom few are convinced have realistic chances of being Kenya’s Fourth President.

Because the main combatants could fight to a tragic end like the famed Kilkenny cats in the age-old Irish folklore, experts say high-profile “alternative” candidates are likely to take control of the State House race.

Macharia Munene, history and international relations lecturer at the United States International University, says the perceived frontrunners are on the verge of being consumed by the mudslinging they have wedged against one another.

“Besides, if the ICC Pre-Trial chambers at The Hague confirms charges against Uhuru and Ruto, it will be difficult for the duo to stage a purposeful presidential bid. In the event they opt out, they will be obsessed with pulling Raila down,” Prof Munene says.

It is on this basis that Frank Matanga, a political science lecturer at Masinde Muliro University of Science and Technology, talks of the possibility of a Kalonzo-Mudavadi faceoff in next year’s presidential poll. Munene echoes Prof Matanga’s position. “This is a scenario most Kenyans have not given much thought and one that politicians are afraid of admitting. Although Kalonzo and Mudavadi appear politically weak, fate and history is on their side,” says Munene.

Rival camps

If The Hague question persists, Matanga explains, it would leave Kalonzo and Eugene Wamalwa, a first-term MP, as frontrunners in the so-called G-7 corner. But for his parliamentary experience spanning over a quarter century and being the country’s VP, the Mwingi North MP has good credentials, and could be “the chosen one”.

“Within the Orange party, continuous pressure on the PM punctuated by regular slip ups, could persuade Raila to turn his numbers to Mudavadi. The possibility is real since ODM is determined not to lose out in the General Election expected next year,” says Matanga.

Though from rival camps, Kalonzo and Mudavadi share some uncanny similarities. Their offices are housed in the same building, Nairobi’s Jogoo House ‘A’, and they serve as deputies to the Grand Coalition Government principals.

Described by critics as politically colourless and spineless, the VP and DPM also hail from communities regarded as democratic. During the last elections, as always, the Kamba and the Luhya split parliamentary votes among various political parties. And failure to vote as a bloc is viewed by some as a weakness on the part of the two.

Alongside Internal Security minister, George Saitoti, Kalonzo and Mudavadi are also part of the old Kanu veterans, who have withered political storms. Unlike the latterday fast-paced presidential wannabes, the three Kanu old-timers are rather sluggish and cautious.

Munene observes it is this “boring traits” that have proved attractive to Kenyans. The historian recalls it is for the same reason many hailed the rise of Daniel arap Moi, then VP, to President in 1978.

When he took over in an acting capacity, following Mzee Kenyatta’s death, some described Moi as “a passing cloud” because of his apparent weak mien at the time. Similarly, a laid-back Kibaki, who was confined to a wheelchair after a road accident, was elected Kenya’s Third President.

Delegations

Separately, The Standard On Sunday has established that Kalonzo and Mudavadi are not sitting on the laurels in anticipation of being handed presidential nomination ticket on a silver platter.

Like a submarine that is fast underground, with little evidence of movement on the surface, the VP and DPM have adopted behind-the-curtains overtures. Kalonzo has been meeting delegations from various communities before embarking on follow-up visits. Lately, he has been to central Kenya, Kisii, Rift Valley, and was this weekend in Meru, Embu and Tharaka Nithi counties in a charm offensive mission.

Meanwhile, Mudavadi has been on a quiet civic education mission in western Kenya telling the electorate to register and “learn to vote en-mass”. Specifically, the DPM has been accusing those projecting him as a Luhya presidential candidate.

“Some of these fellows screamed that the Luhya ‘are tired of being led by others’ and accused the DPM of being satisfied with the Number Two slot. But what number are the so-called hopefuls holding in the outfits they have joined? Even some seasoned politicians abandoned leadership of parties and are shamelessly tagging along some philistine youngsters,” says Kibisu-Kabatesi, Mudavadi’s spokesman.

Mudavadi has progressively increased political activity, by touring Marakwet, Keiyo, Baringo, Turkana, Pokot and Uasin Gishu regions. Last week, he toured Isiolo and Samburu counties where leaders endorsed him as their choice for the ODM ticket.

However, Matanga warns of tough times ahead. Kalonzo and Mudavadi, he says, must up their game significantly if they hope to displace Raila, Uhuru, and company.

“Mudavadi has built his career over decades by not courting controversy or playing the ethnic card. He has a national appeal and can make it as a compromise candidate,” says Matanga.

Adds Munene on VP: “Kalonzo has proved to be a reliable lieutenant – for Moi and now Kibaki. If this time around he can be a good player unto himself, he will go places.”