FILE | DAILY NATION President Kibaki is welcomed to 64 Stadium in Eldoret for a rally in January this year by Eldoret North MP William Ruto.
By MURITHI MUTIGA mmutiga@ke.nationmedia.com
Posted Saturday, August 27 2011 at 22:00
Posted Saturday, August 27 2011 at 22:00
IN SUMMARY
- President wants to keep off succession politics and use his last year in office to safeguard his legacy, thus the warm working relationship with PM
- Surprise reinstatement of Wetang’ula to Cabinet and axing of Eldoret North MP’s allies seen as a blow to the G7 alliance
President Kibaki surprised his allies and opponents by consenting to the midweek reshuffle that significantly complicated the playing field ahead of the 2012 elections while highlighting a warming of relations between the President and Prime Minister Raila Odinga.
The departure of Mr William Ruto and his key allies from the Cabinet and the reappointment of Foreign Affairs minister Moses Wetang’ula was seen as a setback for the G7 coalition, an alliance of presidential candidates which political analysts thought enjoyed the tacit backing of Mr Kibaki.
The President’s decision to consent to changes that were demanded by Mr Odinga while declining to hand the Foreign Affairs docket to the G7-leaning politician Eugene Wamalwa demonstrated Mr Kibaki’s complex approach to politics and his manoeuvres to protect his legacy.
It has also been viewed as a pointer that the President may not play a direct role in the next elections.
Prof Peter Kagwanja, a consultant for the government, says the reshuffle left key members of the G7 essentially orphaned, something he argued will play to their advantage since they will contest the next elections as members of the “opposition” without the burdens of incumbency.
He said the reshuffle would be seen as a victory for Mr Odinga in the court of public opinion but argued his opponents had also been strengthened.
“The reshuffle has consolidated G7 as a de facto opposition. It has been dismissed by both principals. It is very clear that the leader of the opposition will emerge to be William Ruto and the leaders of the G7 will contest the next elections essentially from the standpoint of opposition.” (READ: Ruto unmoved as Raila acts on party rebels)
Prof Kagwanja said President Kibaki had acted to preserve the stability of the coalition.
“He has one year to go and so much to do before he retires,” he said. “He has no direct interest in the next election. He wants a stable country with a new constitution that is implemented and needs his coalition partner to achieve that. Those are the considerations that might have come into play.”
Strong lobbying
The Sunday Nation understands that President Kibaki and Mr Odinga settled on the Cabinet changes more than a month ago. But the announcement of the reshuffle was postponed many times, apparently following strong lobbying of the President and key members of his circle by Mr Ruto’s allies.
The other main players within the G7 are Finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka.
The reshuffle was viewed as the clearest demonstration in months that Mr Kibaki and his coalition partner Mr Odinga are working together more closely than they have since the coalition was formed.
Mr Odinga’s spokesman Dennis Onyango said the President and PM were reading from the same script as they enter the final year of their five-year partnership.
“The relationship between the PM and the President is at its strongest. The PM has made a decision to work with the President to help him secure his legacy. He feels he is part of that legacy, too. An honourable exit for Mr Kibaki will be good for the PM because they have worked together for most of the last decade and campaigned together in 2002. The PM believes government works well when they discuss one-on-one and agree on things and problems arise only from other quarters.”
Another source in the Prime Minister’s office who declined to be named discussing internal government affairs freely identified the surprising figure of Head of Public Service Francis Muthaura as playing a central role in the thawing of the relations between State House and the PM’s office.
The close consultation with the PM served to reduce the public bickering within the coalition that was the hallmark of the first two years of the coalition.He said Mr Muthaura had become a frequent visitor to Mr Odinga’s office, keeping him briefed on major government decisions where in the past the PM was sometimes kept out of the loop.
With an eye on the next elections, Mr Odinga did not object to some of the key appointments that were backed by Mr Kibaki’s side. He endorsed the elevation of General Julius Karangi to head the armed forces and gave the nod for the appointment of Prof Githu Muigai as Attorney-General.
It is unclear what the easing of tensions between the President and the PM will spell for figures in the G7.
In an interview with the Sunday Nation Mr Ruto struck a defiant note, saying his sacking was undeserved and claiming that he was now free to campaign for a generational change at the next elections.
“I am a very strong believer that next year’s election will be determined by young people who want service delivery and when it comes to that I am sure I am way ahead of the pack,” he said.
Mr Ruto maintained that he would remain in the race for 2012 whether or not the International Criminal Court indicted him and said he should be viewed as one of the favourites.
Analysts expressed different views on what the impact of the Cabinet changes would be on the 2012 presidential campaigns.
Prof Egara Kabaji of the Masinde Muliro University said the changes were a boon for Mr Odinga since they would allow him to work with a loyal team committed to helping him ascend to the presidency.
“The simple definition of a political party in a multiparty democracy is a group of people that wants to achieve power and to govern. You cannot be an effective leader of a party when you have members that don’t support your effort to achieve power and it made sense for Mr Odinga to kick out rebels and instill discipline within the ranks of ODM,” said Prof Kabaji.
But Prof Kagwanja said the changes were a blow to ODM. “The President is allowing ODM to peel away like an onion. It initially had three affiliate parties — ODM, UDM and Narc. UDM has now peeled away with Mr Ruto and the loyalty of Narc is in doubt. This is a setback for Mr Odinga.”
Both scholars were united on the possible calculations behind the President’s decision not to protect Mr Ruto, as he did earlier when Mr Odinga attempted to suspend the Eldoret North MP and Prof Samuel Ongeri on allegations of corruption.
“Mr Kibaki has his own agenda which is different from that of the G7. He wants to safeguard his legacy,” said Prof Kabaji. “He knows that without the post-election crisis in 2007 his place in history would have been assured. That’s something he doesn’t want the nation to go back to and his moves are now designed to secure stability.”
Prof Kagwanja argued in similar terms, saying Mr Kibaki was simply obeying the demands of the National Accord to avoid instability.
“For over a year the President has shielded Mr Ruto. He was getting all the privileges of a minister. What has happened is that the President said you are in ODM and your leader does not want you. The government is operating on the basis of coalition,” argued Prof Kagwanja.
But it is understood that the President’s faith in some of the youthful politicians seen as being in his camp had been jolted following the debacle of the rejection of his initial nominee for the position of Chief Justice, Alnashir Visram.Although the National Accord allows each of the two principals to make changes on their side of the coalition, it calls for “concurrence” between them in axing ministers. That is the provision that some had hoped would save Mr Ruto.
That event, which also saw his picks for Attorney-General and Controller of Budget rejected, made the President take a more cautious line on any ideas floated by members of the G7 who had initially indicated they would force through the unilateral nominations with their numbers in Parliament.
The latest changes, which flew against received wisdom among the political elite, has shown the President retains his capacity to baffle analysts and pundits and his behaviour in the run-up to the battle for succession will remain one of the fascinating elements of the 2012 elections.
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