PNU’s candidate Yusuf Hassan Abdi (centre, without a jacket) together with supporters run in Eastleigh on August 16, 2011.
By WALTER MENYA wmenya@ke.nationmedia.com and CASPER WAITHAKA
Posted Tuesday, August 16 2011 at 22:00
Posted Tuesday, August 16 2011 at 22:00
IN SUMMARY
- Ethnicity and spending too will be at play, say political analysts
Succession politics could have a sway in Thursday’s Kamkunji by-election, according to analysts.
The leading pack of three candidates in the Kamkunji race are supported by politicians eyeing the presidency at the next General Election, namely Prime Minister Raila Odinga (ODM), Uhuru Kenyatta and Kalonzo Musyoka (both members of the G7 alliance) and Martha Karua (Narc Kenya).
ODM candidate Ibrahim Ahmed aka Johnnie, who filed the petition against former MP Simon Mbugua, and Yusuf Hassan (PNU Alliance), have emerged as front runners.
Narc-Kenya that fielded candidates in the most recent by-elections, bagging the Juja and Makadara seats, is also confident of winning the Kamukunji seat through youthful candidate Brian Weke.
Five other candidates — Ms Catherine Muthoni Kihara (GNU), Mr James Matagaro (Kenya Social Congress), Mr David Waihiga (Agano), Geoffrey Mutuku (TIP) and Mr Daniel Omao (Ford People) are also in contention.
Presidential contenders
“The by-election being so close to the General Election will most likely be a battle of the top presidential contenders. On one side you have Raila Odinga of ODM and the G7 that revolves around Uhuru Kenyatta, William Ruto and Kalonzo Musyoka.
There might be voters with a keen eye to see that the General Election is close and side with the candidate who is allied to the voter’s preferred presidential candidate,” political scientist Adams Oloo said.
But then, he added, ethnicity too will be at play, with Mr Ahmed and Hassan seeking the votes of other communities in Kamukunji.
The two candidates are both from the Somali community. According to Mr Oloo, it means that other communities in Kamkunji will play a key role in determining who wins.
Moi University law lecturer Kipchumba Murkomen, like Mr Oloo, observed that Kamkunji would provide a test ground for the bigwigs ahead of the General Election, with ethnicity relegated to the back burners.
“The by-election will mostly be influenced by the political alignments that we have seen across the country in terms of preparations for the General Election. The duel is between ODM and PNU,” said Mr Murkomen.
In addition, the university don said, the disgruntlement within PNU following the internal nomination could split Mr Hassan’s votes and aptly play into ODM’s hands.
The PNU Alliance nomination of Mr Hassan created dissension with some candidates such as Mr Waihiga (Agano) jumping out. Mr Mbugua’s attempt to defend his seat on VIPA ticket was however blocked by the Interim Independent Electoral Commission (IIEC).
Ken Wafula, the chairman of the National Council of NGOs, while acknowledging the ethnicity factor observed that the youth in the constituency could be the game changers.
“If young people start thinking of wrestling power from the old guard, then they will vote for the youthful Brian Weke, but it’s the politics of money, then the big parties will fight it out between themselves,” said Mr Wafula.
Voter bribery has been a factor in elections and Mr Wafula hopes the Elections Bill will put a cap on spending during campaigns to level the playing field.
The Bill is with the Attorney General awaiting publication.
“The Bill should have a very strong section that limits campaign spending. It should also have a provision for candidates to submit their campaign budgets to the electoral body and the Kenya anti-corruption commission before the campaigns begin,” he said.
Mr Oloo warned the candidates against complacency. “We should not however forget that by-elections are usually determined by several dynamics, and not the euphoria of a General Election."
How a candidate has endeared himself or herself to the electorate until the last minute matters.
“It will also be a question of who has put in place a machinery that would bring out supporters to vote. By-elections are usually characterized by low turn-out and whoever manages to mobilize supporters will carry the day,” he said.
Presidential aspirants, Mr Odinga of ODM, Mr Musyoka and Mr Kenyatta of PNU and Ms Karua of Narc-K are likely to treat a win by their candidates as a vote of confidence in their parties.
This has been demonstrated by their aggressive campaigns and the message they have been passing to voters in the constituency.
And candidates have resorted to the use of technology as they try to woo more voters ahead of Thursday’s polls.
Some of the aspirants had turned to the short message services (SMS), voice calls, facebook and twitter while they criss-crossed the constituency in door-to-door campaigns.
Part of their new strategies to consolidate their votes include reaching out to community leaders, business people, women, youth and political activists to spearhead their campaigns.
The by-election has clearly come out as a litmus test for both ODM and PNU as well as the supremacy in the Nairobi politics.
The PNU candidate, Yusuf Hassan has the giant Kikuyu Council of Elders backing him for the post.
Led by the chairman, Simon Wachira they promised to mobilise grass roots support through their village committees. In ODM, Nairobi Mayor George Aladwa has been on the fore front in campaigning for Mr Ahmed alias Johnny.
Having scooped the mayoral post last week it will be a major boost for the party should it win the Kamukunji seat as well.
“This is the man who fought for justice in Kamukunji and understands what the common voter wants, is ever available and the party (ODM) has found him fit to represent the constituency,” said Mr Aladwa.
PNU councillors led by, Muthurwa ward councillor, James Gakuya, have mobilised small traders, youth and women to back the PNU candidate in the polls.
The Narc-Kenya Candidate, Mr Weke, has mobilised teams of youth to spearhead his campaign.
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